Ben Diamond message tests possible run against Ken Welch for Mayor

Former state Rep. Ben Diamond is mulling a bid for St. Petersburg Mayor, and he’s testing messaging before he decides whether to challenge incumbent Ken Welch.

A survey went to voters this week, according to screenshots obtained by Florida Politics. The screenshots received didn’t list a source for the survey, and the images appear not to include the entire survey.

But Diamond acknowledged he’s the one asking questions.

“Christina and I are raising our children here in St. Petersburg, and we have long been involved in the civic life of our City, which we love. I have been encouraged to run for Mayor, and this poll is part of my broader effort to learn more about what’s on the minds of the residents of our City,” he told Florida Politics. “I care deeply about our City’s future, but I’m still in the fact-finding stage and some months away from deciding whether the time is right for me and my family to seek to return to elected office.”

Welch, asked about the poll, offered a statement, but did not mention Diamond or any other potential candidate.

“I’m looking forward to sharing our record of leadership, partnership and resiliency, and the outstanding work of our St. Pete team under unprecedented challenges. We remain focused on providing principled progress for St. Pete,” he said.

It’s not uncommon for prospective candidates mulling whether to run to test messaging and gauge interest, and that is particularly salient in the 2026 St. Pete Mayor’s race, which, if Diamond were to run, would pit two Democrats against one another. Adding to that obvious sting — the party tries to avoid primarying one of its own — Diamond would be running as a White candidate against the city’s first Black Mayor. And the survey appears to test whether that will be a disqualifying issue.

The survey offers positives for both men. It describes Diamond as “a white man … born and raised in Pinellas County, where he’s now raising his family.” It describes his service as a state Representative and that he “worked across the aisle to find bipartisan solutions for working families,” adding that he “will work to combat local flooding, invest in infrastructure, and fight crime to make St. Petersburg safer.”

The statement appears to post Diamond as a moderate candidate, a message to test whether the liberal city is looking for a centrist leader. 

It positions Welch, meanwhile, as a “Black man” and “third-generation St. Petersburg resident” who “has worked to make the city a better place for everyone to live by delivering affordable housing for residents who make St. Pete work, backing public safety by investing in youth programs and resources for our police and fire departments, and by leading the city in recovery from last year’s storms.”

Those are all points Welch will likely make in his eventual re-election campaign, ahead of next year’s election. But another question on the survey appears to test possible attacks on Welch, including reports that he stayed at home when Hurricane Ian was threatening in 2022, while other elected officials slept at the emergency operations center, and debris piles that sat for weeks, sometimes months, after Hurricanes Helene and Milton last year, dubbed “Welch piles,” as the survey notes. 

The survey then asks whether those critiques present “very serious,” “serious,” “minor” or “no real” concern, with the option also to select “don’t know.”

The survey also asks if the election were today, whether takers would vote for Diamond or Welch, or if they are still undecided. Florida Politics has not seen survey results, but it’s worth noting that none of the screenshots obtained included negatives about Diamond. 

Nevertheless, this is the first glimpse into what could be a competitive re-election campaign later this year and in the year to come. And if Welch does draw credible opposition, he will likely face those critiques and more. 

So far, no one has officially stepped forward to challenge Welch. It’s likely the GOP will push a candidate for the city’s top elected post, but it’s trickier for Democrats. Some might be frustrated with Welch — more on that in a moment — but opposing him presents an optics nightmare, especially for any White challenger. As the city’s first Black Mayor, a challenger like Diamond would likely face criticism for intraparty fighting and the optics that come with challenging a history-making Mayor. 

But the fodder is there.

During Hurricane Ian, Welch did indeed go home while top members of his staff hunkered down at the new EOC at the St. Petersburg Police Department, as the Tampa Bay Times reported at the time. Welch told the paper, “It was a matter of do I sleep upstairs or do I get a chance to go and check on the family,” noting that by then the storm had changed direction and that “there was no issue at that point.” 

The same story also outlined what reporter Colleen Wright described as a “remote approach” that was “part of a larger pattern with Welch.” Wright reviewed data from Welch’s key card, used to swipe in and out of City Hall. Excluding duplicate swipes — indicating he had entered more than once in a day — Welch had swiped into City Hall 60 times from his inauguration on Jan. 6 2022, through Sept. 7. The analysis found that represented — based on only workdays and excluding holidays — a just 34% attendance rate at City Hall. 

Welch defended the optics, noting that being “tethered” to his office is “not the way I approach it.” He said he’s at City Hall “when I need to be” and argued he was instead “out in the community.” 

Still, that’s the sort of nugget any eventual opponent will likely exploit. 

So too are the “Welch piles.” 

That’s what residents in communities hardest hit by back-to-back hurricanes last year started calling mounds of debris stacked in almost every yard in Shore Acres, Snell Isle, Riviera Bay and Edgemoor. Kevin Batdorf, President of the Shore Acres Civic Association, told the Tampa Bay Times at the time he believed Welch had failed the community, arguing the city “should have known better” and “should have prepared better.” 

All of the piles were eventually collected, and it was a massive operation the city defended, but the optics of a perceived flubbed hurricane response in a town where residents are no stranger to hurricane threats is likely to be a major opposition campaign talking point, should someone like Diamond or anyone else enter the race.

Another item that could cause headaches for a Welch campaign is his political committee, Pelican PAC. Last September, the state initiated the process of dissolving the committee due to its failure to appoint the required officers and file financial reports. From June until late September, when the Times reported on the issue, the committee had not filed a financial report or a waiver of financial activity and had received 11 notices of violation from the state. Yet the Times found that during that time, the committee had made donations to candidates, including $1,000 to Charlie Justice’s re-election campaign to the Pinellas County Commission, which he would go on to lose in November. 

The most recent data listed on the Florida Division of Elections page for the committee stops at Oct. 31 of last year, and no activity is listed since the period covering Sept. 28 through Oct. 4, 2024, when the committee paid $2,000 to committee treasurer Yolanda Brown’s consulting firm, Brown Financial and Consulting. 

But for now, any opposition is all speculation. No one has filed for the 2026 Mayor’s race, not even Welch. And while some have heard rumblings that Diamond might be considering challenging him, nothing has even bordered on official. 

It’s early days, though. Welch was elected in 2021 and would have faced re-election this year, but a successful city referendum changed the schedule of municipal races to coincide with state and federal elections, giving Welch an extra year in his first term. 

While Welch has not officially filed for re-election, he has stated that he intends to run. 

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Disclaimer: Janelle Irwin Taylor previously served as Welch’s Communications Director, leaving the post in September 2022.