Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government.

Darryl PaulsonMay 31, 2017

Sometimes political change comes slowly, one drop at a time. That was the 2016 Florida congressional election where Democrats gained a single seat, although the opportunities were everywhere. Sometimes elections result in a political tsunami, where the political landscape is fundamentally altered, and one party replaces the other party as the dominant political force. The […]

Mitch PerryMay 11, 2017

Bad news for Carlos Curbelo, Brian Mast, and other Florida Republicans in vulnerable Congressional Districts in 2018 who voted for the American Health Care Act. Only 21 percent of American voters approve of the GOP health care plan passed by the House last week, according to a Quinnipiac survey released Thursday. That’s a slight improvement over […]

Darryl PaulsonJanuary 19, 2017

(Part 2 of the Obama legacy) With the inauguration of Donald Trump, it is a good time to review the electoral impact of eight years of the Obama White House. One of the impacts is the election of Trump which surprised the entire political universe. Whatever Obama may have achieved in public policy, it is […]

Darryl PaulsonNovember 22, 2016

Going into the 2016 presidential election, virtually all political pundits and pollsters projected an easy victory for Hillary Clinton. Several of the most respected pollsters gave Clinton an 85 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump. Highly respected presidential scholar Larry Sabato projected that Clinton would win 347 electoral votes to Trump’s 191. As we now […]

Florence SnyderNovember 9, 2016

It’s Morning After in America, and the recriminations are well underway. Even with a crappy crystal ball like Larry Sabato‘s, you can predict the Democrats will assemble an Autopsy Committee like the one the Republicans did in 2012. Old habits die hard. Bleary-eyed pundits, pollsters, pols, and political reporters are crying into their beers and […]

Jenna Buzzacco-FoersterOctober 10, 2016

Hillary Clinton is gaining ground in the Electoral College. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated its ratings Monday, and all of the changes favor Democrats. The ratings update, which came one day after the second presidential debate, “shows Clinton mildly improving on (President Barack) Obama’s 332 electoral votes from 2012,” according to the team at Sabato’s […]

Darryl PaulsonApril 14, 2016

Here are a few basic facts about the electoral-college system. First, very few voters understand how it works. Second, most voters hate the system. Third, the system is almost impossible to change. Those who drafted the Constitution had little trust in democracy. James Madison, in The Federalist Papers, wrote that unfettered majorities tend toward “tyranny.” […]

Darryl PaulsonApril 13, 2016

Here are a few basic facts about the electoral-college system. First, very few voters understand how it works. Second, most voters hate the system. Third, the system is almost impossible to change. Those who drafted the Constitution had little trust in democracy. James Madison, in The Federalist Papers, wrote that unfettered majorities tend toward “tyranny.” […]

Mitch PerryApril 1, 2016

Hillary Clinton had what I’m going to call her “Bob Dole moment” in the 2016 campaign Thursday in Purchase, New York, when she grew visibly angry when questioned by a Greenpeace activist about donations to her campaign from the fossil fuel industry. The activist, Eva Resnick-Day, asked Clinton whether she would reject fossil fuel money in […]

Mitch PerryMarch 31, 2016

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University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato latest Crystal Ball prediction of the 2016 presidential election spells gloom for the Republican Party this November. The longtime political analyst is predicting that if it’s a Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump matchup, it will be an electoral college blowout, 347-191. Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a weekly online political newsletter and […]

Tag: Larry Sabato

Darryl Paulson: Will 2018 bring no change or a political tsunami?

Larry Sabato moves Carlos Curbelo’s CD 26 race to ‘Toss-up’

Obama’s electoral legacy: After 8 years, we get a Donald Trump

Darryl Paulson: Getting schooled on the Electoral College

Postcard from the center, which didn’t hold

Report: Hillary Clinton gets an Electoral College boost

Darryl Paulson: Voters don’t understand or like the Electoral College

Darryl Paulson: Voters don’t understand or like the Electoral College

Mitch Perry Report for 4.1.16 – Hillary Clinton’s Bob Dole moment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball portends a potential Democratic blowout presidential election