Peter Schorsch
Sunburn – The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics.
By Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster, Mitch Perry, Ryan Ray, and Jim Rosica.
THE FINAL RESULTS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA: 1. Donald Trump 32.5 percent; 2. Marco Rubio 22.5 percent; 3. Ted Cruz 22.3 percent; 4. Jeb Bush 7.8 percent; 5. John Kasich 7.6 percent; 6. Ben Carson 7.2 percent
AFTER SOUTH CAROLINA, IT’S DONALD TRUMP’S RACE TO LOSE
Yes, Trump could really be the Republican nominee.
The blunt-talking billionaire posted his second straight victory in South Carolina’s Republican primary Saturday, ending any lingering doubts that he could transform his passionate supporters into voters. On the other side of the country, Hillary Clinton blunted concerns about her viability with a clear victory over Bernie Sanders in Nevada, the first state to test the Democrats’ appeal to a racially diverse group of voters.
Trump, now the clear leader in the delegate race, cemented his standing as his party’s favorite. No Republican in modern times has won New Hampshire and South Carolina and then failed to win the nomination. Having proven his mettle in South Carolina, Trump emerged well-primed for more winning as the primary heads toward a cluster of Southern states.
“It’s tough, it’s nasty, it’s mean, it’s vicious,” Trump said of the rollicking presidential campaign. “It’s beautiful. When you win, it’s beautiful.”
Though Trump’s victory was vindication for political mavericks whose hunger for an outsider has defined this year’s campaign, those fortunes didn’t extend to Sanders. After winning the second contest in New Hampshire, the self-declared democratic socialist came up in short in Nevada, where Clinton collected the majority of delegates and told gleeful supporters that “this one is for you.”
For Bush, it was the end of the line. His donors, ready to bolt, the political scion dropped out of the race after failing to break into the top three.
Trump routed his rivals by capturing roughly one-third of the votes in South Carolina. Rubio edged fellow freshman Cruz for second place, according to complete but unofficial results. Kasich shrugged off a weak performance in South Carolina, a conservative state the Ohio governor had largely written off.
From here, Republicans and Democrats swap places, with the GOP candidates preparing to face off Tuesday in Nevada and the Democrats four days later in South Carolina. The bigger prize comes a few days later, when a dozen states vote on March 1, with oodles of delegates up for grabs.
THREE INDICATIONS IT MIGHT NOT BE TRUMP’S TO LOSE via Dan Balz of the Washington Post – 1. Trump’s winning percentage was the lowest or second lowest recorded here over the past ten presidential primaries. 2. Late deciders broke against him: Trump had a margin of nearly 2 to 1 among the 60 percent of voters who said that they had made up their mind earlier than in the last few days of the primary. Among the other 40 percent, however, he ran third behind his two leading rivals. 3. He scored overwhelmingly among voters looking for someone who tells it like it is and led the field among those who are looking for a candidate to bring change to Washington. But among those in South Carolina who said that they wanted a candidate who shares their values, fewer than 1 in 10 backed Trump.
HOW ABOUT IT’S RUBIO’S RACE TO LOSE via Erick Ericsson of The Resurgent – Trump cannot beat either Cruz or Rubio. Judging by the results of South Carolina, Trump may not be able to Rubio even with Cruz in if we presume both Kasich and Bush’s support goes to Rubio. Cruz, given his operation and money, is not at a time to decide if he must drop out. He still has Texas and a huge delegate take. For Cruz’s supporters who say Cruz suffered because of withering attacks from the media and outside groups, that is not going to change. But South Carolina undermines core tenets of the Cruz strategy and talking points. Marco Rubio is now in a race wherein he has a better shot at winning than Cruz.
WAY OFF TWEET OF THE NIGHT – @HotlineJosh: South Carolina feeling a lot like Iowa: Trump fade, Marco mo and maybe Cruz winning?
BLASPHEMY TWEET: @ChuckTodd: History may show that Trump spat with Pope on immigration may have helped get the frontrunner back on his most powerful message
HANGOVER TWEET – @maggieNYT: The general denial I’m still getting from GOP elites about the strong position Trump is in to be their nominee is pretty amazing
SERIOUSLY, IS TRUMP INEVITABLE? via Ben Schreckinger of POLITICO – It’s going to be a long ride. Rather than anointing a presumptive nominee, the early voting states have narrowed the Republican primary to a three-man race heading into Tuesday’s Nevada Caucuses and the 12-state delegate bonanza on March 1. Despite Trump’s polling lead, there are significant obstacles to his running away with the nomination in the coming weeks … Rubio buoyed by momentum, Nevada’s organizing-heavy caucuses set for Tuesday, and the first half of March weighted toward states where Cruz is poised to finish strongly; there is little space for Trump to translate that lead into a certain nomination in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Rubio’s strength makes him the standard-bearer of center-right Republicans and their deep-pocketed backers as Bush’s departure from the race frees resources for the Florida senator and clears out a cluttered field before the real action begins. After that, Republicans seeking to block Trump from the nomination believe the polarizing businessman will struggle to bring new supporters into the fold.
STATISTICALLY, TRUMP NOW FAVORED TO WIN THE ELECTION via Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight: A reasonable person might adjudicate the case as follows: Yes, if the Republican nomination becomes a two-man race between Trump and Rubio, it could be pretty close. But that might not happen, or it, at least, might not happen for a while, not until Trump is off to a pretty big head start in delegates. What happens in a three-way race between Trump, Rubio and Cruz is a little murky. This reasonable person would concede that Rubio had a chance. But who’s the favorite? Trump! Betting markets, weighing all of this information, see the Republican race thusly: Trump at about 50 percent to win the nomination, Rubio at 40 percent, and the rest of the field at 10 percent. I might quibble here and there, but that seems like basically a sound assessment.
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MORE THAN 725,000 VOTES CAST IN SC, A RECORD via Robert Behre of The Post and Courier – More than 725,000 ballots were cast in the six-way race, representing more than 24 percent of all registered voters in the state. That’s up from the previous turnout record for a GOP presidential primary set in 2012, when 603,770 voted — or 22 percent of state voters at that time. Asked about the biggest factors that fueled Saturday’s record turnout, Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, offered three reasons: “Trump, Trump, Trump.”
BUSH’S FAILED CAMPAIGN SPENT A TON OF MONEY ON EACH VOTE. CARSON’S IS WORSE. via Philip Bump of the Washington Post – [Raising] a ton of money is not a guarantee of success … Bush spent a ton of money to finish sixth, fourth and fourth in the first three Republican contests. While Trump, who enjoys the ability to get media coverage every time he opens his mouth, spent relatively little. Neither of them is the extreme, however, even among the six candidates left by the time voting in South Carolina rolled around. Looking at money spent by the campaigns through the end of January 2016 — the most recent data available — the candidate spending the least per vote was Kasich. The most? Ben Carson ($2,570 per vote/76,000 votes) … Blowing a ton of money on his doomed campaign, much of which is going back out to the fundraisers. It’s a reminder that how campaigns spend money matters as much as how much they spend.
TWEET, TWEET: @MattDrudge: Clinton vs. Trump is the race America deserves. EPIC. WILD. NASTY. FUN. #SCPrimary
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HOW RUBIO EDGED OUT CRUZ FOR SECOND IN SOUTH CAROLINA (HINT: NIKKI HALEY HELPED) via Scott Clement and Emily Guskin of the Washington Post – Rubio’s supporters skewed upscale and urban, winning 27 percent support among college graduates and 32 percent among those with postgraduate degrees, compared with only 15 percent of those without college degrees. Rubio’s support was ten percentage points higher among those with incomes of at least $100,000 than among those making less than $50,000 (26 vs. 16 percent). Rubio won 31 percent of the vote among Republicans who live in cities with populations of at least 50,000, beating Trump’s 23 percent and Cruz’s 18 percent … Rubio is appealing to Republicans who support the party’s establishment. He won more than one-third (36 percent) of the vote of those looking for a candidate with experience in politics but only 9 percent among those seeking someone from outside the political establishment. Rubio performed nine points better among those who did not feel betrayed by the GOP (28 vs. 19 percent). There are two indications that Haley’s endorsement of Rubio … made a difference in his support. While only 26 percent of voters said the endorsement was important, half of those voted for Rubio (47 percent). While some of this may reflect longtime Rubio supporters rationalizing their decision, Rubio also fared nine points better among voters who said they decided in the final few days before voting than among those who decided earlier (27 vs. 18 percent).
OFFICIAL OBIT — BUSH DROPS OUT OF 2016 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN via Ed O’Keefe of the Washington Post – “I’m proud of the campaign we won to unify our country, and to advocate conservative solutions … But the people of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have spoken,” Bush said to a hotel ballroom full of staffers, donors and longtime friends, some of whom burst into tears. “Tonight I am suspending my campaign” … Bush pointedly did not name any of his Republican rivals during his short speech but said, “In this campaign, I have stood my ground, refusing to bend to the political winds.” The advertising strategy forced former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney to accelerate his decision-making about another candidacy this year. But it did not deter potential rivals — most notably Rubio, a one-time Bush protégé who proved to be a more capable campaigner than his mentor.
FULL TRANSCRIPT OF BUSH’S SPEECH — When I began this journey in Miami, I committed that, I would campaign as I would serve, going everywhere, speaking to everyone, keeping my word, facing the issues without flinching, and staying true to what I believe. For the better part of a year, I have endeavored to do just exactly that. I have put forward a vision for America that includes all and includes all…because our country deserves a president for everyone. The presidency is bigger than any one person… and it is certainly bigger than any candidate. This is not, we’re different in our country because our head of state is not above us, but because the head of state, the people who aspire to the presidency are of the people. In a government “of the people, by the people, and for the people” we elect a president like us…imperfect under God’s watchful eye. I have had a front row seat to this office for much of my adult life. I have seen fallible men rise up to the challenges of our time, with humility, and clarity of purpose… to make our nation safer, stronger, and freer. I firmly believe the American people must entrust this office to someone who understands that whoever holds it is the servant, not the master. Someone who will commit to that service with honor and decency. Our next president will lead an extraordinary country, whose people have always made the improbable, possible… in ways big and small. Every day, Americans test the boundaries of freedom and achieve more than what they could have dreamed. But over the last seven years, our nation’s bright light has become little more than a flicker. We have retreated from the world stage. The American values that have brought peace and opportunity are fading. That is not the America we know and love. America is a country that thinks big, acts boldly and leads without apology. It will be up to the next president to restore that kind of leadership. I’m proud of the campaign that we have run to unify the country. And to advocate for conservative solutions that would give more Americans the opportunity to rise up and reach their God-given potential. But the people of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have spoken. I respect their decision. So, tonight, I am suspending my campaign. I congratulate my competitors, that are remaining on the island, on their success in a race that has been hard-fought, just as the contest for the presidency should be because it is a tough job. In this campaign I have stood my ground, refusing to bend with the political winds. We put forward detailed, innovative, conservative plans to address the mounting challenges that we face. Because despite what you may have heard. Ideas matter, policy matters. I truly hope that these ideas that we have laid out will serve as a blueprint for a generation of conservatives leaders at every level of government so that we can take back our country. We laid out plans on everything from reforming our tax and regulatory system, to reviving our economy, to rebuilding our military, to fixing the VA once and for all. Finally, I am grateful to Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, for his steadfast support and his amazing humor. He stole the line that I’m now saying which is that he has become a friend for life. I thank all of the Jeb alumni, many of them are here that have been going door-to-door all across the country, who put their lives on hold for this cause. To my mom and brother, who came here to South Carolina, America truly loves them and respects them and so do I. I want to thank all of my family, 2.0 is always back there in the back. To my dad, who has always served an inspiration to me and is the greatest man alive. To the volunteers and supporters I have met along this incredible journey. And to all the fellow “grinders” on our campaign, our staff who never ever gave up. I’ve had an incredible life and for me, public service has been the highlight of my life. But no matter what the future holds, here’s the greatest safety landing if you can imagine, tonight I’m going to sleep next to my best friend and the love of my life. I am totally blessed to be the father of three extraordinary children and you might know, four near-perfect grandchildren. And I will be blessed to say I am living in the greatest country the world has ever known. I remain optimistic that, with the right kind leadership, that we all need to work to make sure happens, America’s best days are ahead. With strong conservative leadership, Republicans can win the White House, and we can get back to being in the verge of having the greatest time to be alive and that’s what I honestly believe, and I know you do as well. I look forward to working you to make that dream come true. I will do it as a private citizen, just as you are. Thank you for the opportunity to run for the greatest office on the face of the earth. I love you all; God bless you.
VIDEO OF BUSH’S ANNOUNCEMENT Watch here.
WATCH CRUZ SUPPORTERS REACT TO BUSH ANNOUNCEMENT — When Bush announced he was suspending his campaign, RedState was filming at Cruz HQ in Columbia. Check out the crowd’s reaction.
TWEETAGE
— @GeorgePBush: I love you Dad and proud that you offered a servant’s heart to the people of this great Country
— @Pablodiaz0918: It has been the honor of my lifetime to work for Governor Jeb Bush.
— @BrettDoster: the GOP’s finest conservative leader. They can’t be him, but each man left should aspire to be like him.
— @MurphyMike: Very proud of Jeb Bush and what he stood for. Proud to fight his corner, proud of our @r2rusa staff and all their hard work.
— @JamesGrantFL: Proud to have been in your camp sir. Always, #allinforjeb.
— @AdamHasner: As Floridians, we will forever admire and respect Governor Bush for everything he accomplished for our great state.
— @BylineBrandon: Florida Man Spends $100M In Tour Of Nation
— @MarcACaputo: Jeb Bush exits the race for president the way he (usually) campaigned — in a totally classy way
— @daveweigel: You couldn’t have debated or campaigned any better than Jeb! did this week. The 2001-2009 Bush disaster was just too much to overcome.
— @AndyFEA: Ding dong the bastard is dead!!! So happy that JEB is done. What a way to celebrate a Saturday night! Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy!
— @StuPolitics: Lots of political talent now available with Jeb’s exit. Plus donors.
HOW BUSH DROPPING OUT PLAYED — CNBC, Trump wins South Carolina primary; Bush suspends campaign – “In this campaign I’ve stood my ground, refusing to bend to the political winds. We put forward detailed, innovative conservative plans to address the mounting challenges we face.” CNN, Jeb Bush suspends his campaign – “The end was all the more personal because the former Florida governor had poured his energy into the state, invoking his family’s political legacy at one campaign stop after another and facing down voters who questioned his campaign strategy.” POLITICO, Jeb Bush drops out of White House race – “He also took only 2.8 percent of the vote in Iowa’s first in the nation caucuses, despite having outspent his rivals there, too, and campaigned until the very end.” Huffpost Politics, Jeb Bush Flops In South Carolina, Suspends Presidential Campaign – “His fall from frontrunner to afterthought has been as steady as it has been dramatic.” The New York Times, Jeb Bush Suspends Presidential Campaign – “No single candidacy this year fell so monumentally short of its original expectations. It began with an aura of inevitability that masked deep problems.” ABC News, Jeb Bush Suspends 2016 Presidential Campaign – “… Reiterated his belief that the presidency is for the humble …” Washington Post, Jeb Bush drops out of 2016 presidential campaign – “Bush’s decision followed a devastating loss in the Palmetto State, a state that handed both his father and brother crucial victories but that has shifted toward a much more strident form of Republicanism in the years since.” Chicago Tribune, Jeb Bush suspends presidential campaign after poor finish in South Carolina – “Bush, meanwhile, offered himself as an experienced public executive and potential world statesman informed in part by his father’s and brother’s wartime presidencies. But it wasn’t a case strong enough to translate into votes.”
BUSH BECOMES THE LATEST FORMER FLORIDA GOVERNOR TO STRIKE OUT IN A RUN FOR PRESIDENT via Mitch Perry of Florida Politics – “The people of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have spoken,” he told a crowd of supporters in Columbia less than two hours after the polls had closed. “I respect their decision. So, tonight, I am suspending my campaign” … Bush now joins the ranks of former Florida Governors Claude Kirk, Reubin Askew and Bob Graham, all whose presidential candidacies never got off the ground, in 1984, 1976 and 2004, respectively. Kirk, elected in 1966, was seriously considered as Richard Nixon‘s running mate in 1968 but lost out to Maryland Gov. Spiro Agnew. Askew beat Kirk in 1970, and in 1976, was considered a legitimate contender if he ran for the Democratic nomination (ultimately won by fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter). But Askew didn’t pull the trigger. He later ran in 1984, and did very poorly. Then there was Graham, whose 2004 campaign for president similarly went nowhere.
TURNS OUT, BUSH ISN’T VERY GOOD AT POLITICS via Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times – The Bush campaign miscalculated on many fronts — focusing far too much effort on Iowa’s caucuses, rather than lowering expectations there from the start, and producing TV ads featuring aging Tallahassee lobbyists and retired politicians that cast Bush more as a candidate of yesterday than tomorrow — but ultimately it was Bush himself who failed.
He could wow some town hall gatherings with his substance, but on TV and especially during early debates, he looked awkward and tentative. The rise of combative and blustery Trump only made Bush look more meek in comparison. In recent weeks, voters often repeated a common, two-word refrain: “Poor Jeb.”
Somehow his campaign team failed to grasp the level of frustration and anger in voters. Barbara Bush actually seemed to understand that sentiment in her gut better than her son and his top advisers. “We’ve had enough Bushes,” she told the Today show in 2013 when asked about him running for president.
— “Jeb Bush’s real problem was not Donald Trump” via Brian Crowley of The Crowley Report
— “Why Jeb couldn’t win” via Philip Elliott of Time magazine
INSIDE BUSH’S $150 MILLION FAILURE via Eli Stokols of POLITICO – On page after page kept safe in a binder, the playbook laid out a strategy for a race his advisers were certain would be played on Bush’s terms—an updated, if familiar version of previous Bush family campaigns where cash, organization and a Republican electorate ultimately committed to an electable center-right candidate would prevail. The playbook, hatched by Sally Bradshaw, Mike Murphy and a handful of other Bush confidants in dozens of meetings during the first half of 2015 … appealed to the Bush family penchant for shock-and-awe strategy … included several pages about the former Florida governor’s case to prosecute against top rivals—dire political threats such as Wisconsin’s Scott Walker. The plan roundly underestimated threats … for example … told Marco Rubio wouldn’t challenge Bush. Most critically, the playbook … contained nothing about Donald Trump, who would spend the next excruciating year turning Bush into his personal patrician piñata. By August, just six weeks after officially launching his campaign, the only thing Bush’s staff could agree on was the problem: Trump … almost immediately, Trump baited Bush into a fight … Bush fired back, poorly. He went on conservative radio and used the derogatory term “anchor babies” when making the case that he would be a tough enforcer of immigration laws—opening the floodgates of criticism. Inside his Miami headquarters, Bush’s senior staffers were coming to the collective realization that the race was veering out of their control. But that’s where the consensus ended. David Kochel, the early state strategist initially hired to serve as campaign manager, and senior adviser Trent Wisecup, a protégé of Murphy’s, suggested that Bush challenge Trump to a one-hour, live televised debate on birthright citizenship, perhaps on “The O’Reilly Factor.” Bradshaw … and campaign manager Danny Diaz couldn’t be convinced it was a risk worth taking. Those pivotal days in late August were one of the most critical inflection points for Bush’s troubled presidential campaign—the moments when Bradshaw, Kochel and Diaz might have reconsidered the assumptions made months earlier and redirected their candidate. They didn’t, because that redirection wasn’t part of the playbook.
REQUIEM FOR THE BUSH DYNASTY via Todd Purdum of Vanity Fair – [T]he calamitous slow-motion collapse of a candidate so certain that his resume, Rolodex and fundraising prowess would make him a strong contender … has … been stunning to behold. … In hindsight, there were telltale clues from the start. Bush‘s Right to Rise super-PAC raised some $100 million last year-most of it before he even formally declared his candidacy-yet he still couldn’t manage to clear the raucous and splintered Republican field the way his older brother largely did in 1999. … When a planned applause line -‘We’re prepared to act in the national security interest of this country, to get back in the business of creating a more peaceful world’-fell flat, he asked an audience in New Hampshire to ‘please clap.’ His intent was self-deprecation, but the impression he left was of defeat.
QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I was told Mike Murphy was a political magician, and now I believe it, He took the most transformational, courageous, conservative governor of the modern era and made him look like a moderate – all so he could be viable in a general election that he’ll never be in.” House Speaker-designate Richard Corcoran, as reported by POLITICO.
WHERE DO BUSH (AND CARSON) VOTERS GO?
EVEN BEFORE SC, BUSH WAS BUST, WHILE CRUZ, RUBIO, CLINTON HAD RECEIVED MILLION DOLLAR BOOSTS — The Republican and Democratic presidential contenders reported on the financial health of their national campaigns even as they were in the thick of the Nevada Democratic caucuses and South Carolina primary. Most of the outside groups known as super political action committees also faced a midnight Saturday deadline to report to the Federal Election Commission. What we learned:
— Money for nothing: The super PAC Right to Rise USA, which raised a record $118 million last year, took in just $379,000 in January. Most of that came from a single donor: Richard DeVos, the founder of the Michigan company Amway and owner of the Orlando Magic basketball team. Meanwhile, Bush’s official campaign raised just $1.6 million in January and was down to less than $3 million in available cash as this month began.
— Candidate cash flow: Cruz began February with considerably more cash available than all of his Republican presidential rivals. His campaign had about $13.6 million, even after spending $12.7 million in January alone. He also raised about $7.6 million last month, ahead of his Iowa victory.Rubio’s campaign began this month with just over $5 million in cash, after spending $10.3 million and raising $4.9 million.
— Trump‘s ground games: Trump’s campaign reported renting space in Alabama, Texas, Virginia, Oklahoma and Tennessee, which all vote on what’s known as “Super Tuesday.” He was also paying rent in Florida, which votes March 15. Cruz rented space for his campaign in South Carolina and Nevada, his January report showed. Rubio’s campaign appeared to have done little to set up shop in the March states.
— Democratic money: Sanders began February with less than half the available cash of Clinton. Sanders appeared to be on a spending spree last month, investing some $35 million in his campaign and ending the month with $14.7 million. The numbers were nearly the opposite for Clinton: She spent $19 million, half of it on media buys, and ended the month with $33 million.
MEANWHILE …
CRUZ STUMBLES WITH EVANGELICAL VOTERS via Katie Glueck and Shane Goldmacher of POLITICO – South Carolina was supposed to be Cruz’s slingshot, catapulting him through the gauntlet of southern states that vote on Super Tuesday. Instead, he got skunked. It also calls into question his long-held claim that he is the evangelical standard-bearer: Exit polls showed Trump beating him out for evangelical support. “I don’t think it will end his campaign, but it will definitely hurt him,” said Hogan Gidley, a former executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party and past senior adviser to Mike Huckabee. “He’s got money, and he’s got a message to go to the South. The problem is he won’t have any momentum. And you can’t underestimate the importance of having momentum because people want to be with a winner.”
KASICH TEAM DECLARES HIM WINNER OF ‘GOVERNORS BRACKET’ via Sarah Wheaton of POLITICO – In a press release, Kasich calls it a “four-person race.” And his team declared himself the winner of the “governor’s bracket” … “Only four candidates have top-three finishes in any of the early states and can justify staying in,” declared chief Kasich strategist John Weaver in statement blasted out after the polls closed …That assessment, however, had little to do with the election results.
CARSON TO STAY IN RACE DESPITE POOR SOUTH CAROLINA FINISH via Eliza Collins of POLITICO – Carson promised to soldier on during a post-South Carolina speech in which he pledged – in his own way – to tighten his message. “People are being easily manipulated and told what they are supposed to think and who they are supposed to follow when in fact we have this tremendous brains with these enormous frontal lobes.”
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FRIENDSHIP BATTERED, BUSH FACES PRESSURE TO BACK RUBIO via Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt of POLITICO – (T)he state’s politicos now want to know if Bush will endorse the man he long called a friend, the man he said in 2012 should be his party’s vice-presidential nominee. “He is going to relax, think things through and see what he wants to do, if anything,” said Al Cardenas, a longtime Bush confidant who served under the former Florida governor as chair of the state GOP.
In the final days leading up to the South Carolina primary, those close to the former Florida governor – donors, staffers, friends – heard him launch private broadsides against Rubio, sometimes in strikingly personal overtones. Others say Bush refrained from ever speaking ill of Rubio in private. And while the tension between them has led some Republicans to suggest Bush might instead put his support behind Kasich, those close to Bush said on Saturday night such an endorsement was unlikely.
For many Bush backers – the large number of whom always saw Rubio as a second choice – there’s not a moment to spare. That’s because Floridians are already voting by absentee ballot heading into the state’s March 15 primary, which has 99 winner-take-all delegates at stake. As of Friday, more than 105,000 Republicans had voted. That’s less than a third of the absentee ballots that consultants expect will be cast.
RUBIO ALLIES RACE TO COURT BUSH DONORS via Fredreka Schouten of USA Today – Bush’s exit Saturday from the Republican presidential race set off a scramble for one of his campaign’s most valuable assets: the hundreds of deep-pocketed donors who helped launch his bid last year with a $100 million war chest. … Brian Ballard said he had planned to call about 40 Bush donors from Florida on Sunday to urge them to move to Rubio’s camp. About half already had called him before Saturday night was over, he said. “The campaign money is going to go flying to Rubio,” he said.
— “With Jeb out, former Sen. Norm Coleman throws support behind Rubio” via Allison Sherry of the StarTribune
— “Winter Haven state Rep. John Wood endorses Marco Rubio” via Bill Rufty of Florida Politics
TWEET, TWEET: @RogerJStoneJr: Now @marcorubio carries the Discredited Bush Agenda
TWEET, TWEET: @Fineout: With @marcorubio declaring Bush “greatest governor” in state history does that mean he’s bracing for Scott endorsement of Trump?
MIAMI REPUBLICAN MEMBERS OF CONGRESS WHO HAD BACKED JEB BUSH PREPARE TO ENDORSE MARCO RUBIO via Patricia Mazzei of the Miami Herald – Miami’s current and former Cuban-American Republican members of Congress plan to endorse Marco Rubio … after having initially backed Jeb Bush. … Reps. Carlos Curbelo, Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and former Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, would all shift their support to the remaining Miami candidate in the GOP presidential race. It’s a sign to other Bush backers to let go of any bad blood from the Bush-Rubio rivalry sooner rather than later. All four politicians had been careful not to bash Rubio during the campaign, saying they thought Bush was more experienced but Rubio too would make a good nominee.
POST-BUSH, JACKSONVILLE MAYOR SWINGS SUPPORT TO RUBIO via Marc Caputo of POLITICO Florida – Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, endorsed Rubio as part of the first in a string of major Florida GOP endorsements for the presidential candidate now that Bush has dropped out of the race. “For years, Marco Rubio and I have worked together for the conservative cause,” said Curry, who was neutral in the race, in a written statement. “I am proud to once again stand with my friend Marco Rubio.” In the northeast corner of the state, Curry’s endorsement doesn’t just give Rubio a dose of good news in the crucial Jacksonville media market; it carries with it the hope that he could tap Curry’s fundraising network that includes businessman Tom Petway, former ambassador John Rood and businessman Peter Rummell – who each raised and donated at least $1 million each for Bush’s election effort.
RUBIO SUPER PAC ANNOUNCES MULTISTATE ADVERTISING EFFORT via Daniel Strauss of POLITICO – The Conservative Solutions PAC supporting Rubio said it will launch “a multi-state multi-million-dollar advertising effort” beginning Tuesday, predicting the battle for the GOP nomination will only pick up. “Tonight’s results in South Carolina make it clear that this is a three-candidate race, with Marco Rubio best positioned to challenge for the lead going forward,” Jeff Sadosky, the group’s communications strategist, said.
INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY:
REST IN PEACE, JEBIO — Jebio — described by the Tampa Bay Times as its guide to the 2016 presidential campaign — died Saturday night evening after the first three letters of the effort, Jeb Bush, suspended his campaign for president of the United States.
Jebio had not yet reached its first birthday.
Launched in March of 2015, Jebio was part of the Times’ effort to remain relevant in a political news environment quickly becoming dominated by online news websites, such as POLITICO and Florida Politics.com.
Jebio is survived by the ‘Daily Buzz on Florida Politics’ newsletter, an email with 5 updates from the Times’ political team. The newsletter was designed to compete with other, more popular email programs, most of which arrive in readers’ inboxes in the morning. The Times’ offering arrives each day at 3 p.m. when the previous days’ news has already been thoroughly analyzed, while most of tomorrow’s stories have not taken shape.
While the Times’ newsletter is certain to live on, Jebio’s death was unexpected, leaving many Times staffers in a state of inconsolable grieving.
“We have a Jebio app and a Jebio Twitter profile…” said a tearful Amy Hollyfield, the Times editor in charge of the newspaper’s political coverage. “What are we suppose to do now?”
Political editor Adam Smith was also struck by Jebio’s quick demise.
“One day, your idea of putting Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio on top of flamingoes is right there,” said Smith, his eyes still bloodshot from a long night of crying. “The next day, Jeb’s head on a flamingo is gone. You just never know.”
A memorial service to celebrate the life of Jebio will be held Monday, February 22 at 6 p.m. at Hofbrauhaus, the beer garden located next door to the Times’ headquarters.
***In Marion County alone, the horse industry’s annual economic impact is $2.62 billion and nearly 20,000 jobs–completely dwarfing any Seminole Compact estimates. Totally opposed by horsemen, the “partial decoupling” plan now in play would put horsemen on forced welfare with an artificial “set aside purse pool,” wiping out free enterprise and Florida’s ability to compete for horse racing business with other states. United Florida Horsemen want legislators to know that “Partial Decoupling” is being peddled by casino-only interests, the goal of which is to channel money directly into their corporate bottom lines that would have normally been circulated into Florida’s economy.***
CAMPAIGNS SEE DOLLAR SIGNS IN AOL EMAIL ADDRESSES via Paul Singer of USA TODAY – The thing that is most valuable to the candidates … is an AOL.com email address … [which] produce more money than Gmail addresses. A January study by digital marketing firm Fluent concluded that only 4% of subscribers to political email lists had AOL.com email addresses, while 48% of subscribers had Gmail accounts. But those AOL users accounted for 22% of total donations during the study period – November and December 2015 – with an average donation of $159. Gmail users accounted for only 13% of donations with an average gift of $31. … Older people are more likely to be generous campaign donors and more likely to have a 20-year-old email account.
BILL NELSON EAGER TO FLIP SEATS IN SENATE via Jeremy Wallace of the Tampa Bay Times – Days after New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan officially filed to run for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, the Democrat had a $2,500 check already in hand from a political action committee that Bill Nelson runs out of his hometown of Melbourne. The surge in donation activity in October … demonstrates how critical Senate races in New Hampshire and Wisconsin have suddenly become to Nelson’s hopes of becoming the first Floridian to lead one of the most powerful committees in the U.S. Senate in 100 years. No Floridian has taken over the chairmanship of the Senate Commerce Committee since 1916 … Nelson has enough seniority to be next in line to lead it, but only if Democrats regain the majority in the Senate. To do that the party needs to flip at least four seats held by Republicans. That number jumps to five if Republicans win the White House. Democrats are favored in early polling in Illinois. The other three seats that stand the best chance of switching are in New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Florida — all races Nelson has invested in. In June, Nelson’s PAC donated $5,000 to Rep. Patrick Murphy’s campaign in Florida. Political analysts say it’s no surprise Nelson would be fixing his attention on New Hampshire.
JONATHAN CHANE ROLLS OUT DEMOCRATIC ENDORSEMENTS IN PRIMARY FOR PATRICK MURPHY HOUSE SEAT via George Bennett of the Palm Beach Post – Three of Palm Beach County’s five Democratic county commissioners and two elected countywide Dems have endorsed Palm Beach Gardens attorney Chane in his Democratic congressional primary against businessman Randy Perkins. Perkins has more money and Washington establishment love in the Democratic race to replace Murphy, who’s running for Senate. Chane says he’s a more authentic Democrat with more local ties than Perkins, who has contributed heavily to Republicans and hasn’t lived in the Palm Beach-Treasure Coast District 18.
JOE GARCIA VERSUS ANNETTE TADDEO PRIMARY FIGHT DRIVES RIFT BETWEEN HOUSE DEMS via Lauren French of POLITICO – Rather than backing Garcia — who lost his seat in 2014 to Florida Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo — the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee endorsed his primary opponent, Taddeo. That’s got Garcia’s allies in Congress up in arms. “This has us all pissed off. You have to be kidding me? What did [Joe] do wrong? What did he do to deserve this?” said California Rep. Juan Vargas. “We have no problem with [Taddeo] running, but she shouldn’t get any help. You don’t leave a brother out there like this.” But lawmakers close to the DCCC argue their obligation is to win seats for Democrats, not reflexively favor former members, and contend that Taddeo has a better shot at winning back the Republican-held seat.
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AFTER RARE BATTLE WITH RICK SCOTT, BUSINESS GROUPS ADJUST STRATEGY ON TEST SCORES via Jessica Bakeman of POLITICO Florida – Powerful business groups such as the Florida Chamber of Commerce and the Associated Industries of Florida urged the state Board of Education to reject the Scott administration’s plan for passing scores (also known as “cut scores”) on new state exams, under which a slight majority of students in most grades and subjects would pass the Florida Standards Assessments. Instead, they pushed for a higher bar, one more closely aligned to Florida students’ performance on the National Assessment of Educational Progress … the Scott administration was facing growing unrest from traditional public school stakeholders. Superintendents, school boards, teachers and parents railed against Florida’s version of the Common Core standards and new tests aligned to the more difficult material, threatening to launch a broader attack against the state’s education accountability system. So the state Board of Education — even members who had initially supported aligning passing scores with students’ performance on NAEP — accepted the Department of Education’s lower-bar recommendation compromise that largely quieted calls for an overhaul of the accountability policies, such as school grades.
HOSPITAL SUBMITS CORRECTIVE ACTION PLAN TO STATE AGENCY via the Associated Press – Calhoun-Liberty Hospital has submitted its corrective action plan to Florida health officials. The Agency for Health Care Administration cited the Blountstown facility for 10 deficiencies, many of which led to the Dec. 21 death of Barbara Dawson. The 56-year old black woman died after she was forcibly removed from the emergency room by a white police officer. Hospital CEO Ruth Attaway said in a statement that staff is receiving additional training in reassessing patients based on changes in their conditions, performing medical screenings and documenting in incident reports.
LEGISLATIVE REPORT CARD: WHAT HAVE (OR HAVEN’T) FLORIDA LAWMAKERS DONE? via Jeff Schweers of the Tampa Tribune – Just over halfway through the 2016 regular session of the Florida Legislature, the two dozen men and women elected to represent Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties have shown an ability to get bills passed — one common measure of effectiveness … Another measure is achieving leadership roles to advance an agenda — something the local delegation can claim with Tom Lee running the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and Richard Corcoran serving as his counterpart in the House. Lee and Corcoran will work side by side in the Joint Legislative Budget Committee to figure out how to close a $1 billion spending gap between their chambers’ two spending plans in time to give it to Scott by the session’s scheduled close on March 11. As chairman of the Senate Education Committee Pre-K-12, John Legg … decides which bills get a hearing and which ones die. Simply by not scheduling hearings this week, Legg in effect killed several education bills approved by the House. Working behind the scenes in their respective leadership positions are Senate Majority Leader Bill Galvano … Senate Minority Leader Arthenia Joyner … and House Majority Leader Dana Young.
GAMBLING FUTURE AT CROSSROADS AS TECH GENERATION LOSES INTEREST IN SLOTS via Mary Ellen Klas of the Miami Herald – As Florida legislators decide whether to ratify a deal with the Seminole Tribe … no one is talking about one thing: Slot machines are declining, too. Market research studies show that the massive Millennial generation … consider slot machines boring and table games only slightly more appealing. The studies show they prefer theme parks and restaurants, adventure travel and games of skill. And, the researchers warn, unless the gaming industry finds a way to capture this tech-savvy generation with online gambling or games delivered to their homes and offices through smartphones, even the games they are hoping to rescue them will die.
JACK LATVALA SAYS DON GAETZ IS HYPOCRITICAL FOR ATTACKING MIGUEL DIAZ DE LA PORTILLA via Kristen Clark of the Miami Herald – Gaetz [blasted] fellow Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla for killing his open-carry bill, another Republican senator is accusing Gaetz of being a hypocrite. “When Don Gaetz was Senate president and throughout my time serving with him, he has never hesitated to use whatever procedural options were open to stifle the will of anyone else in the Senate,” Sen. Jack Latvala said … He cited a couple of instances during Gaetz’s presidency from 2012-2014 when he said he felt the Niceville Republican used his power as president to halt the progress of Latvala’s own priorities. “For him to be talking about one senator stifling the will of the Senate, he needs to make sure he has clean hands,” Latvala said. Latvala and Gaetz are not ones to mince words about each other and they have a history of showing publicly their dislike for one another. During the special session on Senate redistricting last fall, Gaetz rose for a 17-minute tirade on the Senate floor in which he called Latvala a “bully” and criticized him for being critical of Senate leadership.
SENATE EDUCATION COMMITTEE AGAIN WON’T MEET, KILLING SEVERAL BILLS via Jeffrey Solochek of the Tampa Bay Times – Senate Education Committee chairman John Legg said … his committee again will not meet next week, marking the effective death of several bills that had his panel as their first point of reference. Among the measures that generated the most passionate reactions but not getting hearings were related to requiring elementary school recess (SB 1002) and allowing taxpayers to oppose schools’ instructional materials (SB 1018), both by Sen. Alan Hays. Other items that didn’t make it through included Jeff Brandes‘ bill to allow for the breakup of school districts (SJR 734), Dorothy Hukill‘s bid to include financial literacy as a graduation requirement (SB 96), and Darren Soto‘s proposal to guarantee teachers a minimum salary of $50,000 (SB 296). A House attempt to create a statewide charter school authorizer (HJR 759) also is likely to die, having no active Senate companion … Legg said his committee would convene only upon special order from leadership, and then to iron out differences with the House or to hear noncontroversial matters.
CHILD SHARING MAY DERAIL ALIMONY BILL via Lloyd Dunkelberger of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune – The Senate began the debate on Tom Lee’s bill (SB 250) that would start each divorce or child custody case on the basis that child-sharing should be a 50-50 arrangement. “Both parents are equally situated and equally qualified and equally entitled to present to the court the argument that they should have 50 percent of the time with the child,” said Lee … chairman of the Appropriations Committee. Under Lee’s bill, child sharing would equally split between the parents, with the ability of the judge to modify that arrangement based on some 22 factors, including issues like the child’s preference, travel time, school activities and the parent’s requested time. Senators raised a number of questions, including a provision that could potentially penalize step-parents who technically would be defined as “non-relatives” under the legislation. Lee said he was willing to eliminate that proposal if it makes the bill more viable.
AN ODD SLATE OF BILLS UP FOR CONSIDERATION TODAY IN LEGISLATURE — It’s Week 7 of the 2016 Legislative Session, and Monday brings an unusual trio of bills: From gas pumps and self-storage to … declarations of war?
First, the Senate Commerce and Tourism Committee takes up SB 1148, sponsored by Tallahassee Democrat Bill Montford, requiring “self-service gas station pumps to have a receipt printer that is in good working order, and capable of producing receipts,” the bill analysis says.
“This requirement will be enforced by intermittent inspections of the self-service pumps by the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services’ (DACS), which may take a noncompliant gas pump out of service until it meets the applicable requirements,” it adds.
Next, the House Appropriations Committee is scheduled to consider HB 559, sponsored by St. Cloud Republican Mike La Rosa, which would change the Florida Self-storage Facility Act.
The bill would allow for public notices of auctions of the contents of unpaid units (think “Storage Wars”) to be placed on an Internet website instead of a local newspaper. Originally, the proposal had been for the Department of Financial Services to run that website; an amendment filed last week changes it to the Office of State Courts Administrator.
Finally, the Senate Military and Veterans Affairs, Space, and Domestic Security Committee will look at SB 1710, which urges Congress and the President “to declare that a war exists between the United States and al-Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), and all other global Islamic terrorist organizations,” according to the analysis.
The bill, offered by Baker Republican Greg Evers, is a legislative memorial, which does not have the force of law if approved and cannot be signed or vetoed by the governor. Memorials “are mechanisms for formally petitioning the federal government to act on a particular subject.”
***Capital City Consulting, LLC is a full-service government and public affairs firm located in Tallahassee, Florida. At Capital City Consulting, our team of professionals specialize in developing unique government relations and public affairs strategies and delivering unrivaled results for our clients before the Florida Legislature and Executive Branch Agencies. Capital City Consulting has the experience, contacts and winning strategies to help our clients stand out in the capital city. Learn more at www.capcityconsult.com.***
— AROUND THE STATE —
CENTRAL FLORIDA TOLL AGENCY’S $250,000 APPROVAL QUESTIONED via Kevin Spear of the Orlando Sentinel – In the wake of its corruption scandal two years ago, a revamped Central Florida Expressway Authority pledged to act more openly, but recent actions have raised questions about the agency’s commitment to that goal. In January, agency board members approved without comment a $250,000 “adjustment” for salaries and benefits. Board members were briefed privately by staff on the matter and … the agency created no documents spelling out what the quarter-million dollars is to be used for. In broad terms, the budget adjustment provides a new cushion of cash for worker illness, retirements and hiring, ending an era of tighter budgeting for employee compensation …Though essentially a change in policy, it was not been examined in any public way by the agency.
UBER GROWTH MANAGER, A JACKSONVILLE NATIVE, SEES HUGE EXPANSION FOR THE COMPANY via Drew Dixon of the Florida Times-Union – Ed Baker may be a prototypical prodigal son of Jacksonville. The lanky 36-year-old product of The Bolles School, who is now the vice president of growth for the burgeoning Uber service, returned to his original home and was the guest speaker at the World Affairs Council Global Business Luncheon at the Jacksonville University Davis College of Business. Baker detailed how the company was poised to grow even more than the 68 countries and 400 cities it’s already established operations in and has served over 1 billion trips for customers. Jacksonville has failed to force Uber and a similar service called Lyft and their drivers to follow the same regulations required of taxi drivers, which includes vehicle inspections, background checks and an annual fee. The city had demanded the companies stop their operations and issued a limited number of citations to the companies and their drivers. Baker and Lyft officials maintain that they perform their own background checks on drivers. Baker said some drivers are even dismissed from Uber if they don’t meet positive rider ratings. Despite those efforts, Jacksonville city officials said they, along with other cities in the state, are looking to the Florida Legislature to settle the issue with an umbrella state law. Baker said he’s still perplexed as to why so many municipalities initially recoil from Uber. He said many of their drivers are former taxi cab drivers.
OLIVE OIL: THE NEXT BIG THING IN FLA. AGRICULTURE? via Susan Salisbury of the Palm Beach Post – With Florida’s iconic citrus industry in decline, growers are looking for new, profitable crops. One alternative: olives that can be pressed into olive oil to satisfy growing demand. About 300 acres of olive trees are being grown in Florida by approximately 50 growers, from commercial growers with 20-plus acres to backyard hobbyists with just a few trees … Growers sell directly to consumers. Three olive mills serve Florida producers: one near Live Oak, one near Ocala and one 30 miles north of Jasper in Lakeland, Ga. That’s important because the sooner olives are pressed, the higher the quality of the oil. South Floridians should know that olive trees planted south of Orlando are not likely to produce fruit, because the general consensus is that they need 200 chill hours at 47 degrees or below a year in order to flower. Olive growers believe the crop holds a lot of promise and point to the Florida blueberry industry as an example of a fairly new crop that has gained ground.
STATE PUTS ST. LUCIE RIVER POLLUTERS ON HONOR SYSTEM TO REDUCE NITROGEN via Lucas Daprile of TCPalm – On paper, the state is ahead of its 2018 goal to reduce pollution that fouls the St. Lucie River, but whether the water is any cleaner is anyone’s guess. The state’s annual progress report on its 2013 cleanup plan takes polluters at their word, gives them credit for actions they can’t prove worked and ignores key factors like Lake Okeechobee discharges. For example, the state credits Port St. Lucie with keeping 9,388 pounds of nitrogen out of the river each year through an educational program that includes a website and brochures, as well as a summer ban on fertilizers. But the report does not explain how the state arrived at such a specific number. Turns out, that and many other numbers in the report are estimates based on computer models. The state does not measure whether people are actually reading the information, changing their behaviors and adhering to the ordinances to reduce nitrogen pollution that can spur toxic algae blooms in the river.
NEW LOBBYING REGISTRATIONS
Brian Ballard, Justin Sayfie, Ballard Partners: Babcock Property Holdings; Kitson & Partners
Yolanda Cash Jackson, Jose Bermudez, Becker & Poliakoff: Association for the Improvement of American Infrastructure
Alex Diaz de la Portilla, First Stone Management: Glades County Board of Commissioners
Edgar Fernandez, Anfield Consulting: City of Flagler Beach
Herbert Gibson: Environmental Defense Action Fund
Howard Liggett: Distressed Real Estate Consulting Services
Bethany Linderman: Guidewell Mutual Holding Company
Richard Lindstrom, Lindstrom Consulting: Flagler Construction Equipment
Nicol Malas, Rawn Williams: Jefferies
William Rubin, Melissa Akeson, Christopher Finkbeiner, Heather Turnbull, The Rubin Group: Charter Schools USA
Paul Mitchell, Jonathan Setzer, Mercer Fearington, Jim Smith, Monte Stevens, Southern Strategy Group: Windsor Properties; VOANS SW Florida Healthcare; American Wood Council; The Treatment Center
Paul Keith Steinbrecher: JEA
SPOTTED AT SACHS MEDIA GROUP’S 20TH ANNIVERSARY PARTY: T.K. Wetherell, the former Florida House Speaker and President of Florida State University; former DEP Secretary Ginger Wetherell; Fred Baggett of GreenbergTraurig; Seminole State College President Dr. Ann McGee; Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce President Sue Dick; Dave Coburn, Chief of Staff to FSU President John Thrasher; HCA Healthcare VP Bryan Anderson; Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce chair Kathy Bell; PSC Commissioner Lisa Edgar; attorney/journalist Neil Skene; Florida Health Care Association lobbyist Bob Asztalos; Florida League of Cities Executive Director Mike Sittig; John Thomas of the Florida League of Cities; lobbyist Steve Uhlfelder; Allison Aubuchon of the Foundation for Excellence in Education; Metz, Husband and Daughton lobbyist Greg Black; and reporters Jessica Bakeman of POLITICO, Steve Bousquet of the Tampa Bay Times and Arek Sarkissian of the Naples Daily News.
SAVE THE DATE: The College Republicans of Florida State University host a meet-and-greet fundraiser, Thursday, Feb. 25, beginning 6 p.m. at 3474 Gardenview Way in Tallahassee. Host committee includes John Paul Bailey, Evan Power, Jeff Howell and Cynthia Henderson.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY belatedly to Rep. Jay Trumbull. Celebrating today is Southern Strategy Group’s Nelson Diaz.
