A.G. Gancarski
On Tuesday, the 105th anniversary of the Great Fire of Jacksonville, State Rep. Lake Ray declared his intention to run for the GOP nomination in Congressional District 4 in a cauldron-like cinder block room in a Southside Jacksonville office park.
By jumping in, the race became one of Ray Against the Machine. Specifically, the machine behind John Rutherford, which includes Jacksonville’s mayor, Lenny Curry, his political advisers, and his donors.
Rutherford wasn’t in the room; indeed, there were about 20 supporters and two media outlets, neither of them local television. But the former Jacksonville sheriff was there in spirit, looming over the proceedings.
For Rutherford is the dragon that must be slain for Ray to get the Republican nomination.
Ray’s prepared remarks alternated between giving reasons he was running and talk of how people he met with over the last three weeks were “upset” because they were “not going to be given a chance to pick a candidate.”
That last bit was a not particularly veiled reference to the quick establishment coalescence around Rutherford.
People told Ray that “we need you to run.” And so he decided “it is time that I step up and run for Congress.”
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When asked how he would beat Rutherford, Ray mentioned that he has never been the “establishment candidate” and that “citizens of this region are not happy with … [an attempted] coronation” of the former Jacksonville sheriff.
When it was mentioned that few people from the region were in the room, Ray noted that “people who wanted to be here couldn’t because it was the middle of the day.”
And when asked how he would deal with the inevitable negative campaigning and oppo dumps put forth by forces friendly to Rutherford, Ray’s answer was intriguing.
“Everybody is fed up with negative campaigning,” Ray said, noting that “during the last election” which saw Curry upend sitting Mayor Alvin Brown, people told him the tactics of the winning side were “outrageous.”
“People run negative campaigns when they have nothing they can sell,” Ray said, adding that “citizens of this area will reject that” if Rutherford goes negative.
“If they want to go negative,” Ray said, “I’m not sure what they can go negative on … when you go negative, people ask why.”
Ray cited his work bringing port funding from Tallahassee — up from $8 million to $1.2 billion — as an example of the successes that negative campaigning would fall flat against.
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Beyond going up against a fearsome political machine, Ray faces another potentially existential issue: a poll deficit.
Rutherford captured 49 percent of the vote in a prospective GOP primary, according to an April survey commissioned by FloridaPolitics.com. Ray pulled down just 13 percent in that poll.
Rutherford is winning the favorability battle also. Sixty-six percent of GOP primary voters polled had a favorable opinion of the former lawman, while just 14 percent had an unfavorable opinion. Fifty-five percent of Republicans didn’t know enough about Ray to form an opinion, but his favorability/unfavorability rating was 27/18 percent.
Ray believes the poll points to weaknesses in the Rutherford candidacy.
“Somebody with such high name ID and favorables should have been [at a] higher percentage,” Ray said, adding that “the campaign’s about ideas and experience.”
Ray didn’t seem worried about being outspent either, or about the earned media Rutherford would enjoy.
He believes that he can make the case about his experience, from city council to Tallahassee, and that he, unlike Rutherford, is ready to legislate from day one.
