Why the Hans Tanzler campaign still feels optimistic

Despite recent public polling that shows Hans Tanzler running third in Florida’s 4th Congressional District race, his campaign says it is optimistic as Election Day approaches.

For one thing, new money — $10,400 of it — came in on Aug. 23.

More important, Tanzler’s camp says, its internal polls are showing a trend of undecided voters breaking toward Tanzler, Lake Ray, and Bill McClure … and not toward the front-runner John Rutherford.

Two recent polls, done by what is being called a D.C. polling outfit, show the trend.

A phone poll Tuesday night of 500 people showed Rutherford at 29, Tanzler at 22, Ray at 19, and McClure at 9. Of those surveyed, 20 percent were undecided. On that poll, the margin of error (MOE) was 4.4 percent.

A poll of 300 people on Thursday night, meanwhile, showed Rutherford holding at 29, but the field closing on him.

Tanzler was up two points to 24, Ray up two to 21, McClure up one to 10, and 16 percent undecided.

With a MOE of 5.7 percent, Tanzler could be in a statistical dead heat in the most recent poll.

In both polls, the survey sample matches the Tanzler campaign’s projection of the electorate: 59 percent surveyed were from Duval, 26 from St. Johns, and the balance from Nassau County.

Rutherford’s favorable number has held around 60. But as our source in the campaign tells us, his favorable number might be high, but he can’t get his poll numbers to match.

This inability to make the final sale creates an opening for Tanzler, whose favorability has moved from 30 to the mid-40s.

This explains a pivot in messaging; Tanzler’s latest family values ad is a way to burnish favorable numbers, and the bet made is that undecideds will continue to break as they have been.

If that’s the case, Election Night might be closer than the most recent public poll of the race suggests.