Phil Ammann
Early/mail vote results a precursor for the fall?
Are Democrats still seeking to flood the voting booths and turn enough Congressional districts blue to win the House? Will vulnerable Democratic Senators be able to survive and flip a couple of Republican seats to gain control of that chamber as well?
Lately, a Republican incumbent in California or other deep blue states is said to be becoming an endangered species. Is the Florida Democratic voter as motivated as those in blue states are purported to be?
Polls and turnout figures seem to indicate the answer is no. That could bode well for Gov. Rick Scott and targeted incumbents like Brian Mast, Carlos Curbelo, Vern Buchanan and Republicans running for open seats in District 6, 15 and 17.
So far, Florida voter turnout participation is looking similar to the last midterm election in 2014. That was a good year for Republicans.
Figures provided by the Florida Secretary of State’s office show Republicans with a 62,000-ballot advantage in returned mail ballots as of Thursday. The GOP also had a 5,000-ballot lead in early voting.
Four years ago, Republicans returned 77,000 more primary mail ballots and broke even in early voting numbers. For the general election, the GOP had a combined 90,000-ballot advantage when polls opened on Election Day.
Perhaps Democrats are just waiting until November to vent their displeasure with Trump and the GOP. Or, they will vote in large numbers over the coming weekend.
But if the turnout is reflecting an ebb in Democratic enthusiasm or an increase among Republicans, it could affect the nature of the election. Scientific polls are based on turnout models, and if 2018 continues to look like 2014, polling numbers will become better for Republicans when likely voters become the focus of surveys.
If that remains to be the case, Nelson, as well as hopeful Democrats seeking to flip House seats, will need to sell themselves to independent voters while keeping their base happy.
Democrats often struggle in midterms but have believed for months this year would be different. It still could be, but they will need to turn out their numbers in South Florida far better than they did four years ago.
Among the ramifications of that failure was a second term for Scott, who would likely not be challenging Nelson, let alone leading him by 6 points (see below). Charlie Crist would have been governor again and not a Congressman from Florida’s 13th Congressional District.
Perhaps the convictions or plea deals of former Trump associates will get Florida Democrats out to vote for those promising to thwart or impeach the president. If not now, maybe in the fall.
Or the independents could take a bigger swing in the direction of Democrats.
Barring that, 2018 could be déjà vu all over again.
Nelson, Rubio seek additional funding for algae response
While the blame game for the algae blooms in South Florida goes back and forth between Scott and Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, some bipartisan cooperation is coming forward. Nelson is joining with Republican Sen. Marco Rubio to propose funding for targeted responses to combat the menace.
The Senators have proposed $1 million of funds assigned to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in a current spending bill. Special priority to receive funding would be given to locations subject to a state of emergency designation within the previous 12 months because of blooms.
“Toxic algae blooms are choking Florida’s waterways, crippling our economy and making people sick,” Nelson said in a joint statement. “This amendment will provide the CDC additional money to more closely examine the health risks posed by algae.”
Among the things to be funded with the appropriation are public health education campaigns, building CDC programs for reporting blooms, and documenting and tracking illnesses and hospital stays related to algae exposure. Florida would have 13 counties that qualify for the funding.
“Floridians deserve to know the health risks associated with these harmful algal blooms,” Rubio said. “Our bipartisan amendment would provide additional assistance to identify health impacts to Floridians that may have been underreported and understudied in the past due to lack of available resources.
Scott slightly ahead in new FAU poll
A new poll from Florida Atlantic University puts Scott 6 points ahead of Nelson. The challenger’s 45-39 percent lead is slightly better for the two-term governor, who led 44-40 in the last survey.
Scott received a 48 percent approval rating with 33 percent disapproving. Nelson has a 35 percent approval rating and 36 percent disapproval.
Of more concern to the three-term incumbent is the non-affiliated voters. Among independents, Scott holds a 44-25 percent advantage.
Immigration was the most important issue among 27 percent of respondents, while health care meant more to 25 percent. The economy (14 percent) and gun control (12 percent), were the only two other issues in double figures.
Trump received a 45 to 43 percent approval/disapproval rating in the survey.
With Nelson knowing he has work to do, his campaign and Democratic advocates have reserved more than $40 million worth of television time beginning next week after the primaries.
Bushes to raise money for Scott
Trump and the Bushes do not seem to agree on much, but they have one thing in common. The current president and former President George W. Bush, along with former Gov. Jeb Bush, want Scott to defeat Nelson for the latter’s U.S. Senate seat.
On September 14, the Bush brothers will attend two fundraisers to help raise large sums for Scott’s campaign. An evening reception in Palm Beach will follow a Tampa luncheon.
“As a resident and former Governor of Florida, I understand the complexity and leadership it takes to serve as the chief executive of our state and the commitment it takes to bring real change,” Bush said in a Thursday email. “I also understand the importance of the election this November and how the outcome will affect the direction of our state and country for generations.”
Speaking on behalf of the former president, Jeb Bush said his brother “understands Rick Scott is the type of leader Florida needs now.”
It is not the first time Scott and the former president worked together. The governor was a part owner of the Texas Rangers baseball club when Bush was the principal owner.
Rubio, Yoho rebuke El Salvador’s move to cut ties with Taiwan
It did not take long for Congress to take notice of El Salvador’s recent decision to sever ties with Taiwan. Rubio and Republican Rep. Ted Yoho of Gainesville warned the Central American nation that their move could backfire.
“It is extremely disappointing that El Salvador chose to sever diplomatic relations with democratic Taiwan and embrace communist China,” Rubio said. “This is a grave mistake that harms relations with the U.S. and will likely prove to be costly and shortsighted given what we know about China’s ‘debt traps’ and economic exploitation globally.
Rubio, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he was joining an effort to block foreign assistance to El Salvador.
Yoho, who is chairman of the House Asia and the Pacific Subcommittee, also blasted the move.
“For the third time this year, a nation has been bought off by China,” Yoho said. “Not only has China bought one of Taiwan’s remaining 18 allies, but it is gaining alliances in our backyard. China is taking advantage of these countries to isolate Taiwan further and build influence in Latin America.”
Dunn rallies for Kavanaugh
Although he will not have a vote on his confirmation, Republican Rep. Neal Dunn joined a rally urging the Senate to confirm federal appeals court Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Dunn spoke last week before the rally organized by the Susan B. Anthony List, joining with organizers to proclaim the importance of the pro-life position.
“We are working with President Trump to put good, honest, conservatives who reflect the will and morals of the American people and fight for the unborn on the Supreme Court,” Dunn said. “As a father of three, a grandfather of three, and as a man of faith, I believe firmly that life begins at conception.
As a medical doctor, Dunn shared his personal experience with attendees.
“I have operated on unborn babies to save their lives – these are children – and I fight every day in Congress to protect them,” he continued. “These Supreme Court appointments will have effects on life in this country for decades to come, which is why I believe our senators should support Judge Kavanaugh.”
The Senate Judiciary Committee is scheduled to begin confirmation hearings shortly after Labor Day. Kavanaugh is visiting with Senators during the summer.
Jacksonville preachers walk back Brown endorsements
Things are going downhill for former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown in his primary race against Democratic Rep. Al Lawson for Lawson’s District 5 seat. Earlier Brown was touting endorsements from “more than 30 faith leaders representing a large swath of the local faith community.”
This week, three of the preachers have retracted their endorsements, saying they should not have been included because their 501(c)(3) nonprofit status was at stake.
Pastor Reginald Gundy of Mount Sinai Missionary Baptist Church said Brown made “an honest error” by including him. Rev. Robert Wendell Webster of New Fountain Chapel AME Church and the Rev. Tan C. Moss of the Greater Grant Memorial AME Church pulled their endorsements for the same reason.
“While I have known the candidate, Alvin Brown for many years and believe that he is a viable candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives, District 5, I did not give permission to use the name of my church,” Webster wrote.
On Wednesday, the latest poll showed Brown trailed Lawson by 19 points. A University of North Florida survey had Lawson with 48 percent to 29 for Brown with 22 percent undecided.
CD 7 opponents tout endorsements
As businessman Scott Sturgill and Republican state Rep. Mike Miller head toward Tuesday’s conclusion of their primary race for the District 7 seat, some last minute endorsements entered the campaigns. The incumbent is first-term Democrat Stephanie Murphy.
Backing Miller is his colleague in the Florida House, state Rep. Jason Brodeur as well as Seminole County Property Appraiser David Johnson. Earlier, Miller gained the support of state Rep. Rene Plasencia, who along with Brodeur, are the only two legislators from the region taking sides in the primary.
“This seat is so important to Seminole County,” Brodeur said. “We need a congressman who will represent our values. We need the candidate with the best shot of beating Stephanie Murphy in November, and Republicans need to know that is Mike Miller.”
Sturgill may not have picked up an endorsement from the president, but some of his strongest supporters are joining in to help the Sanford businessman’s quest to win the nomination. Boots on the Ground Bikers for Trump announced Sturgill is their guy in the quest to defeat Murphy.
Sturgill is “a strong supporter of our president, our Constitution and especially the second amendment,” said George Colella, the group’s president.
The latest polls show Miller with a double-digit lead.
Murphy is facing Chardo Richardson in the Democratic primary on Tuesday. Despite Murphy being a firm favorite to move to the general election, Richardson was endorsed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the newly-minted Democratic celebrity, who pulled the biggest upset of the campaign season by toppling Rep. Joe Crowley of New York.
Shapiro leads Buchanan protest
For those who thought Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan might have smooth sailing to re-election, his Democratic opponent, David Shapiro and supporters have other ideas. The furor surrounding Buchanan obtaining a foreign loan to purchase a yacht at the time the GOP tax cut bill was becoming law in December is not going away anytime soon.
On Wednesday Shapiro and sign-toting protesters were outside Buchanan’s office. The central message was “people deserve to know the truth.”
The controversy stems from the bank who gave Buchanan the loan, an American subsidiary of the Bank of Montreal, who lobbied in support of the tax bill. Buchanan disclosed the loan on his financial statements, but not the terms, which is legal.
“It’s deeply concerning that Vern Buchanan would take a $5 million loan for a luxury yacht just as he was writing a tax law that gives huge handouts to the foreign bank that gave him that loan,” Shapiro said in a statement following the protest.
The Buchanan campaign and his supporters fired back, calling into question some of Shapiro’s investments in what some call “dirty” stocks.”
“Shapiro publicly claims he supports clean oceans, but privately he buys stock in the very company responsible for the catastrophic oil spill of 2010,” said Max Goodman, Buchanan’s campaign manager. “Shapiro says one thing publicly but does another privately. Just like his investments in drug companies, assault weapons manufacturers, and greenhouse gas polluters.”
Shapiro’s campaign says these stocks were purchased as part of a retirement fund, and were not selected by Shapiro individually.
Parkland parent slams Diaz Balart
To the surprise of almost no one, the February 14 massacre at Douglas High School in Parkland has taken a prominent role in a political campaign. A new digital ad features the father of a slain student attacking Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart of Miami for accepting contributions from the NRA.
The ad, produced on behalf of Diaz-Balart’s Democratic opponent, Mary Barzee Flores, features Fred Guttenberg condemning the veteran incumbent for accepting NRA money for years, including after the killings. The one minute and 10-second video show Guttenberg, whose daughter Jamie was among the 17 victims, looking into the camera and speaking directly to Diaz-Balart.
To watch the ad, click on the image below:
“Mario Diaz-Balart, after February 14, after my daughter and 16 others died, you had a choice to make. And you chose to take money from the NRA,” Guttenberg says. “You chose to take their money … you’re not worthy of service … you need to be fired.”
The ad references a $1,000 donation from the National Rifle Association of America Political Victory Fund. It also states Diaz-Balart has taken more money from the NRA than any other member of the delegation over the past 20 years.
“I will be working every day to support Mary Barzee Flores for Congress, because I want her to serve,” Guttenberg continued. “She will take common-sense gun safety seriously and be part of the solution.”
Guttenberg has been an outspoken critic of the NRA and has traveled around the country speaking on behalf of gun control.
While the ad is scheduled to run on digital platforms, the campaign said it could become a television ad later. As of August 8, Diaz-Balart had $1.5 million campaign cash on hand, while Barzee Flores had $577,000.
Former CD 27 candidate endorses Shalala
The crowded to race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen now has one fewer candidate with the announcement that Republican Stephen Marks was ending his candidacy. Instead of staying silent or endorsing one of his former GOP primary foes, Marks took the step to support former Democrat Donna Shalala, the former University of Miami president.
An internal poll from former Telemundo news anchor Maria Elvira Salazar shows her leading the GOP field by more than 20 points. Miami Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro’s own internal poll show also shows him trailing by double digits with Marks nowhere to be seen.
Marks is endorsing the Shalala, who is 77, primarily over the issue of health care. He feels the former Secretary of Health and Human Services is the right choice for that reason.
“Even if I disagree with a lot of the other stuff she does, I think she would be the best person to fight for senior citizens,” Marks said. “So, I made this radical decision to cross party lines.”
Marks, who supports Barreiro in the GOP primary, has been a political consultant for Republican campaigns for decades.
Shalala’s main challengers in the Democratic primary are state Rep. David Richardson and former Knight Foundation executive Matt Haggman. Democrats are heavily favored to flip the seat into their column.
Former Gaetz law partner appointed
Last week, Trump appointed veteran trial lawyer Larry Keefe as the new U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Florida. If confirmed, Keefe would become the top federal prosecutor for a district that covers 23 counties from Escambia in the west to Alachua in the east.
Keefe’s experience may not have been as a prosecutor, but having Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz as a backer does not hurt. Gaetz worked at the nominee’s law firm Keefe, Anchors & Gordon for a decade.
“Larry Keefe is widely respected in the legal community in North Florida. He will do a great job for us,” Gaetz told the Tampa Bay Times. Asked about his influence on the president, he said, “I try to always help Trump.”
The camaraderie between the Congressman from Fort Walton Beach and the president is well-known. Keefe has practiced in state and federal courts for 32 years.
Some in the conservative circles expressed concern that Keefe donated to the Hillary Clinton campaign. He wrote a check for $500 in December 2015 to the candidate who opposed the man that appointed him.
On this day in the headlines
August 24, 1972 – A tumultuous Republican National Convention closed in Miami Beach last night with the nomination of President Richard Nixon and Vice-President Spiro Agnew for a second term. During his acceptance speech, Nixon blasted “the policies of those who whine and whimper.”
Outside the convention center, police arrested 805 agitators, who blocked streets, damaged cars and set fires. Last month, Miami Beach was also the scene for the Democratic National Convention where South Dakota Sen. George McGovern was nominated to face Nixon in November.
August 24, 2012 – He wasn’t chosen to be Mitt Romney’s running mate, but Sen. Marco Rubio is getting the consolation prize of a prime-time speaking slot on the final night of the Republican National Convention to be held at the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa. Rubio will speak before Romney accepts the nomination for President and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan addresses the convention as the GOP nominee for vice-president.
Leading off the final night speakers is Rep. Connie Mack IV, who is challenging Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in the fall. Legendary actor and director Clint Eastwood will also take the stage Thursday.
