Staff Reports
Delegation focused on Hurricane Michael aid
Nearly a week after Hurricane Michael hit the northern portion of the Gulf Coast, local officials were still trying to account for everyone. Along with the local effort, state and federal officials were working together on behalf of a region devastated by the power of a near-Category 5 hurricane striking Florida.
As the storm gained strength, Gov. Rick Scott requested President Donald Trump declare parts of Florida a major disaster area. Florida Senators Bill Nelson and Marco Rubio joined with 20 bipartisan members of the delegation in supporting Scott’s request.
Politics made its way into the looming storm. With voter registration closing last Tuesday, the Florida Democratic Party went to federal court after Florida Secretary of State Ken Detzner agreed only to accept new registrations one day after his office reopened Monday.
“(Detzner’s) ‘solution’ is insufficient and confusing,” the lawsuit reads. “It does not adequately protect the voting rights of Florida citizens who cannot register to vote by the October 9 registration deadline.”
With Tyndall Air Force Base taking a direct hit, Nelson, Rubio and Republican Rep. Neal Dunn wrote to Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein. The request, written the day after landfall while the process of digging out had only begun, was intended to remind military officials they would help get any necessary funding through Congress.
Like they have on several issues before the hurricane, Nelson and Rubio continued to work in tandem.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do to help these communities recover, but @marcorubio and I are doing everything we can to make sure folks affected by this storm get access to all the federal resources they need,” he tweeted the day following Michael hit Florida. In another, Nelson said: “Sen. Rubio and I are making sure all federal resources are available to help folks rebuild.”
Dunn, who represents the area taking the direct hit, Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Fort Walton Beach, and Democratic Rep. Al Lawson of Tallahassee, also had significant numbers of constituents directly affected. Along with both Senators, all three were visible throughout their districts following the disaster and either provided or forwarded information to those able to hear or receive it.
Lawson and delegation Democrats wrote to Scott requesting Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and other benefits for those affected in North Florida. The members said, “we implore you to consider all available federal food assistance programs … that are designed to root out hunger in the unfortunate instances of natural disasters and catastrophe.”
According to a Lawson tweet, Scott had already approved SNAP benefits for several Panhandle counties two days before the hurricane hit, but Gadsden and Leon County were not included. The two counties were subsequently added.
Trump, along with First Lady Melania Trump, toured the damage in Florida and Georgia on Monday. The President, accompanied by Scott during the Florida visit, described what he saw as “total devastation” and the day’s biggest goal was “just making sure everyone is safe, that they’re fed.”
Enthusiasm gap closing?
What are the chances Democrats gain the 23 seats needed to retake the House of Representatives and will Florida contribute to flipping some seats? The odds are in their favor for the former, but they may have difficulty even winning a seat most analysts have considered to be in their camp for a year (see CD 27 below).
Perhaps a better pickup opportunity comes from Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is now within a point of Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo in Florida’s 26th Congressional District, according to a recent Mason Dixon poll.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls have the Democrats with a slightly more than a 7-point advantage in the generic ballot. Much of that advantage is fueled by three recent polls, all taken after the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, which gives Democrats double-digit margins.
If Republicans were thought to have begun closing the enthusiasm gap following the Kavanaugh hearings, these polls would indicate that is not the case. Despite GOP donations spiking, all three of these surveys show Democrats with a huge advantage.
Republicans would point to the makeup of the surveys. The ABC/Washington Post poll of registered voters released on Sunday showing an 11-point Democratic lead, had a breakdown of 33 percent Democratic respondents, 25 percent Republican and 35 percent independent.
Pollsters, especially in the latter stages of campaigns, try to anticipate the turnout on Election Day, instead of merely polling an equal percentage of the parties. However, this same poll showed Hillary Clinton with a 12-point lead over Trump only two weeks before Election Day.
The CNN survey showing a 13-point Democratic margin, had a sample of 31 percent Democrat and a whopping 44 percent of independents in their survey to only 25 percent of Republicans. The independent figure is an outlier.
Finally, the Ipsos poll showing Democrats up by 12, also had 6 percent more Democrats than Republicans, but independents made up only 13 percent of their respondents.
I a sign of some GOP awakening, some of the battleground Senate races are tilting slightly toward Republicans over the past two weeks. Nelson clings to an inside-the-margin-of-error lead over Scott.
The House still favors Democrats. Real Clear Politics shows Democrats leading in 205 races, Republicans in 200 with 30 seats, mostly held by Republicans, rated as toss-ups.
In the end, if Republicans make up only 25 percent of the voters as these polls project, they will lose and lose big, putting more than one delegation seat in jeopardy. If the GOP really has closed the enthusiasm gap, control of the House could come down to a handful of seats in California.
Nelson sides with Trump (sometimes)
During the process leading up to the confirmation of now-Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Nelson was under a microscope on how he would vote. We now know the three-term Democrat would have paid a steep price with the base had he joined West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin in voting “yes.”
Nelson has cast himself as a moderate who votes on an issue, not by party. In the era of “resist Trump” at every turn, a new analysis by CQ Roll Call shows he comes down on the same side as Trump on several occasions.
For example, earlier this year, Nelson agreed with Trump to extend warrantless spying in some circumstances. He also decided to roll back some banking regulations contained in the Dodd-Frank legislation that passed following the 2008 financial crisis.
While the previous two examples were not close votes in the Senate, Nelson bucked most members of his party and voted to confirm Gina Haspel as the Director of the CIA after Mike Pompeo left to become the Secretary of State. That vote was 54-45 for confirmation.
Overall, Nelson was on the same side as Trump 55 percent of the time over a 20-month period. Only 7 of the remaining 41 Senators in the Democratic caucus voted with Trump more often.
In 2018, he has voted with Trump 63 percent of the time. While it will not matter with most Republicans, Democrats and some independents will decide if that was a good thing.
Rubio promises consequences if Saudi journalist was murdered
As the mystery surrounding the disappearance of Saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi grows, Americans, including members of Congress, want to know whether he was murdered in Turkey. Rubio wants the U.S. government to take a tough stand.
On the Sunday talk shows, he floated the idea that business as usual between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia should not go on. The Senator told CNN that Treasury Steve Mnuchin should not attend an upcoming investment conference in the kingdom.
“I don’t think he should go,” Rubio told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union,” adding that he doesn’t think any US officials should continue with their usual business in Saudi Arabia until Washington gets to the bottom of Khashoggi’s disappearance.
“I don’t think any of our government officials should be going and pretending it’s business as usual until we know exactly what’s happened here,” Rubio said.
Khashoggi, a columnist for The Washington Post, disappeared after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey on October 2. Many believe he was murdered while in the consulate.
If Khashoggi is found to have been murdered, Rubio promised “a very strong Congressional response.”
Parkland father endorses Scott in new ad
For Andrew Pollack, who lost his daughter in the Valentine’s Day shootings in Parkland, the issue was not about gun control. Pollock has blamed the lack of school safety at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School for the tragedy that occurred.
He was heavily involved with the effort to get the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School Public Safety Act passed, which was ultimately signed by Scott. On Monday, Pollack endorsed Scott for the U.S. Senate in a new ad called “Meadow,” the name of his murdered daughter.
To view the ad, click on the image below:
“I just didn’t want to believe it that out of all the people that it could’ve been my daughter on that third floor,” Pollack says in the ad. “And I also lost a big part of my life that day. I might as well have been buried with her because I’ll never be the same.”
That bill raised the minimum age to buy a gun in Florida from 18 to 21. It also banned bump stocks, the type of modification used in last year’s Las Vegas shooting, among other new restrictions.
Other Parkland parents have endorsed Nelson for his stance on gun control.
“Rick Scott wasn’t worried about the politics that came with that bill, and he did what he thought was right,” Pollack said. “We need a politician that’s going to do what’s right. I truly believe that, that Rick Scott loves this country, and he wants to get up to Washington and make a difference.”
Nelson and Scott were scheduled to debate on CNN Tuesday night, but Hurricane Michael forced a postponement. It could turn in to cancellation if Scott stops campaigning entirely to focus on hurricane recovery.
The Scott campaign said First Lady Ann Scott and surrogates would keep his campaign commitments at least for the next two weeks and possibly for the remainder of the campaign.
Climate change major topic on Sunday shows
The topic of climate change has long been an issue that has divided the two parties. On Sunday, it returned on prominent Sunday programs following the release of a U.N. report on climate change calling for placing a “high price on carbon.”
During his appearance on CNN’s State of the Union, Rubio repeated his position that includes not denying climate change, but he is unconvinced of the scope of the role of human activities. Rubio told host Jake Tapper he would not “destroy the economy” through extensive government mandates to combat climate change.
For his part, Trump has previously called climate change a “hoax.” During a spirited 60 Minutes interview with Lesley Stahl on numerous subjects, the President acknowledged the climate is changing, but will “change back again.”
Trump, like Rubio, does not wish to put the U.S. at a disadvantage with an aggressive government response.
Crist thanks USDA for considering rules to protect animals
Representative Charlie Crist is thanking the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in a letter for considering rules that would protect animals from inhumane breeding practices. The rule contains language similar to legislation Crist co-sponsored in Congress.
Crist’s WOOF Act (Welfare of our Friends) would prohibit the issuance or renewal of licenses to breeders whose licenses had previously been revoked or suspended as a result of severe animal care violations. It would also prohibit immediate family members at the same address from obtaining a new license or license renewal.
“In some cases, commercial breeding facilities with multiple, serious [Animal Welfare Act] violations are able to maintain their license to operate,” the letter explains. “Breeders whose licenses have been suspended or revoked as a result of such violations can obtain a new license under another family member’s name.”
“This end-run around the rules allows bad actors to breed on the same property, committing the same abuses year after year.”
Crist described heartbreaking abuse including dogs with gaping wounds that go untreated, underweight dogs with their bones protruding and dogs caged without protection from frigid weather conditions.
He posted the letter to Facebook Sunday.
The USDA’s proposed rule stop breeders from side-skirting already existing laws protecting the welfare of animals. Crist offered his support for the rule and asked the USDA to expedite its approval process to protect dogs better.
Mast, fishing advocates celebrate new reservoir
The Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) has cleared the Senate by a 99-1 vote, sending it to the President’s desk for approval. The Florida delegation and advocates for Everglades restoration, fishing and other environmental interests are pleased with the action.
Among the items authorized is the creation of a reservoir south of Lake Okeechobee, which will absorb much of the discharges of toxic water from the lake. The schedule for the releases will also be adjusted, all of which is designed to stop the harmful algal blooms that are creating numerous problems in several waterways in South Florida.
“After years of hard work, passing this bill will help us send the water south and cut discharges! Now, our fight continues for funding and changing the Army Corps’ priorities to account for public health and safety,” said Republican Rep. Brian Mast of Palm City. “Our fight is not over, but today is a momentous move in the right direction.”
Mast touted nine sections of the WRDA bill he authored. Last month, he joined with Nelson and Rubio to announce a deal that included the reservoir in the final legislation.
The American Sportfishing Association also praised the bill’s authorization of the reservoir as well as restoration of the Kissimmee River.
“Passing WRDA is a monumental step in restoring the Everglades and providing clean water for our fisheries, and we greatly appreciate the leadership of Florida’s Congressional Delegation in securing its passage,” said Kellie Ralston, Southeast Fisheries Policy Director of the American Sportfishing Association. “We will continue to work with Congress to ensure that sufficient funding is available to carry out the Act’s provisions,”
Frankel introduces bill promoting education for girls
Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach has introduced legislation bringing attention to the system barriers preventing girls from accessing secondary education. The Keeping Girls in School Act, coinciding with the International Day of the Girl, was jointly filed by Frankel and Republican Rep. Susan Brooks of Indiana.
Frankel and Brooks are the co-chairs of the Congressional Women’s Caucus.
“When girls are educated and given the skills to support their families, we uplift communities, reduce poverty, and create a more peaceful and prosperous world,” Frankel said in a news release. “This bill puts empowering adolescent girls front and center by addressing obstacles keeping them out of school, like gender-based violence and child marriage.”
Along with highlighting some of those barriers, the bill would “authorize a budget neutral funding mechanism where USAID is directed to enter into results-based financing and/or traditional grant project proposals to reduce these barriers adolescent girls face. These proposals will utilize public-private partnerships, development impact bonds, and other innovative financing mechanisms to leverage real results with measurable outcomes.”
The bill would also require the review and update of the U.S. Global Strategy to Empower Adolescent Girls.
Poll: Salazar holds surprising lead
Florida’s 27th Congressional District was almost considered a slam dunk for Democrats after Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen announced she would end her long career in Congress. But according to a recent poll, the seat is up for grabs
In a district won by Hillary Clinton by double digits in 2016, a survey by Mason-Dixon revealed Republican Maria Elvira Salazar is slightly leading Democratic nominee Donna Shalala by two points. Pundits believed Ros-Lehtinen’s personal popularity enabled her to overcome such odds, but another Republican would not have the same ability.
An inkling that a close race may be on the horizon came last month when internal polls from both campaigns showed Shalala might have work to do. Salazar’s polls showed her up by 9 points while Shalala’s showed the former Clinton Cabinet member and University of Miami President leading by only four points.
The Shalala campaign described the Mason Dixon poll as “an outlier.” According to Shalala campaign spokesperson Mike Hernandez, the poll “does not match our internal polls both in terms of what the electorate will be or voter intention.”
The Salazar campaign, through campaign manager Jose Luis Castillo, said: “these numbers really reflect that her message, her ideas and vision are continuing to resonate throughout with voters in District 27.”
On Saturday the two candidates, joined by independent local attorney Mayra Joli, participated in a debate aired on Telemundo. Shalala pointed to her experience in Washington while Salazar highlighted her years as a journalist covering issues in the local community.
Heading into the primary, Shalala had a cash-on-hand advantage of more than two-to-one. As the latest fundraising reports were about to be announced, Salazar released a new advertisement touting her commitment to environmental protection.
On this day in the headlines
October 16, 1991 — The Senate barely confirmed Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court, after his confirmation hearing was roiled by accusations of sexual harassment by a former employee. By a vote of 52-48, the narrowest margin in history, Senators decided that sexual harassment charges by a former employee should not keep Thomas from the nation’s highest court.
Eleven Democrats joined 41 Republicans, including Republican Sen. Connie Mack in voting for Thomas. Democratic Sen. Bob Graham, who voted no, said: “I must accept as essentially a factual statement of the circumstances that which was presented by Ms. (Anita) Hill … and with that, I cannot vote for Clarence Thomas to be a member of the United States Supreme Court.”
October 16, 2014 — In a weird start to their gubernatorial debate, Gov. Scott initially refused to take the stage because his opponent, former Gov. Crist, insisted on using a fan to keep him cool. Crist has routinely used a fan when speaking from a podium.
“Are we really going to debate about a fan? Or are we going to talk about education and the environment and the future of our state?” Crist asked. “I mean, really.”
Despite getting back on message as the debate progressed, Scott supporters fretted the fan incident could become a defining moment of the campaign. Both candidates got in some digs on their opponent.
