Staff Reports
Republican retirements pave way for Democrats
Among the reasons Democrats are in a position to flip the majority in the House is a large number of GOP retirements. With 26 Republicans retiring, open seats are much easier to grab than established incumbents.
The number of retirees marks the second-largest among the GOP in modern history, second only to the 27 who left in 2008. That year, Democrats gained 21 seats in the House, 8 in the Senate, and elected Sen. Barack Obama as President.
That does not include 14 other Republicans who are leaving to run for higher office. With 40 open GOP seats, Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take control of the House.
Why are so many Republicans retiring or otherwise leaving the House? Part of the blame comes from a self-imposed limit of 6 years that GOP members can serve as committee chairs. Many would rather move on after turning over the gavel instead of becoming a regular member.
House Speaker Paul Ryan leads GOP retirees that also include nine committee chairs and a few subcommittee chairs. The retirements include the chairmen heading the committees on policy, foreign affairs, administration, appropriations, transportation, oversight, and government reform, financial services, science and space, and judiciary.
Retiring Rep. Tom Rooney of Okeechobee served as chairman of the Emerging Threats Subcommittee of the House Intelligence Committee. While Rooney’s district is safe, the districts of the already departed Rep. Ron DeSantis and retiring Rep. Dennis Ross, a deputy majority whip, are competitive according to recent polling.
Many Republicans question their party’s strategy of imposing term limits on their committee leaders, pointing to the current situation that could cost them the majority. Leadership responds that Democrats allow their committee leaders to hold the gavel indefinitely, thereby choking opportunities for younger members to move up.
Along with the political realities, large numbers of retiring members represent what some describe as a “brain drain.” So be it, according to Republicans supporting the practice.
“You can certainly make the argument about keeping people around longer, about the value of institutional knowledge,” Republican Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma said last year. “But the reality is, for most of our members, they’re willing to run those kinds of risks in order to have the potential for upward mobility.”
With the predicted, but not certain, loss of the majority, do they still feel that way this year?
Republicans supporting the temporary status of committee chairs could also point to Florida state government. Term limits have been in place for years with several open seats, including departing committee chairs, occurring every cycle.
Yet, the two-decade dominance has remained and is likely to continue next month.
If Republicans defy the odds, the polls, and money disadvantages to hold the majority, their leadership will claim vindication. If Democrats gain control, Republicans will not be heading any committee.
Rubio: Khashoggi murder response ‘disrespectful’
The killing of columnist Jamal Khashoggi has brought strong criticism from around the world and both sides of the political aisle in the U.S. Among those blasting the Saudis accused of the killing as well as the government’s shifting responses is Republican Sen. Marco Rubio.
Rubio was among those demanding answers soon after Khashoggi’s disappearance. Now that the government has admitted to Khashoggi’s death, Rubio is calling the claim that it came after a fight in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul “disrespectful” to President Donald Trump and allies in Congress.
“The #Khashoggi Murder was immoral,” Rubio wrote on Twitter. “But it was also disrepectful (sic) to Trump & those of us who have supported the strategic alliance with the Saudi’s. Not only did they kill this man, they have left [Trump] & their congressional allies a terrible predicament & given Iran a free gift,” he continued.
Rubio has called for Saudi Arabia to face sanctions if their government, especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is found to have authorized Khashoggi’s murder.
South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham took it even further, saying he feels “completely betrayed,” by the Saudis.
Trump has previously called Saudi explanations “credible” and characterized the arrests of 18 people by Saudi authorities as “a good first step.” But on Saturday, Trump acknowledged inconsistencies in the government’s statements.
Rubio, South Florida Republicans seek additional tariff exemptions
Florida’s junior Senator and three South Florida Republicans are urging expedited exemptions from steel and aluminum tariffs for American allies and partners, especially one of the closest South American allies of the U.S. Rubio, and Reps. Carlos Curbelo, Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen wrote to Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer asking them to hasten negotiations for additional tariff relief.
According to the lawmakers, the goal is to isolate the People’s Republican of China (PRC), whom they describe as a “bad actor,” and not harm those who share the U.S. view on trade.
“We appreciate your successful efforts to negotiate steel and aluminum quotas for imports from Brazil and Argentina,” they wrote. “Therefore, we respectfully request that you expedite negotiations of additional exemption agreements with our allies and partners, both in South America and around the world, to isolate the PRC and other bad actors to fully address this global problem.”
They make the case that quick action on Colombia is warranted.
“Negotiations with Colombia should be a priority,” they continued. “Under outgoing President (Juan Manuel) Santos, Colombia pledged to cooperate on addressing a variety of deficiencies in the treatment of certain U.S. industries to strengthen the U.S.-Colombia relationship. It is essential that our government continue to work with President Iván Duque and his administration to ensure Colombian commitments are upheld.”
Four new polls have different results in Nelson/Scott race
With two weeks to go until Election Day, few are certain where the race between Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Gov. Rick Scott currently stands. Four recent polls offer little clarity.
Going into the weekend, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls had the race in a tie. A new survey by SEA Polling & Strategic Design showed Scott with a two-point lead, while a poll for CNN by SSRS gave Nelson a 50-45 advantage.
A third poll by Quinnipiac University, released on Monday, gives Nelson a 52-46 margin, “built on his large margin among independent voters,” according to Peter Brown, assistant director of the poll. The survey included 29 percent of independents, nearly equaling Republican and Democratic respondents.
St. Pete Polls also released their new survey on Monday, which gives Scott a statistically-insignificant margin of less than one point. A takeaway from this poll is Scott’s slight advantage among Hispanic voters, while Quinnipiac shows Nelson with a 20-point lead among this group of voters.
The RCP average on Monday, which does not include the SEA poll, gives Nelson a 2.4-point lead.
Gaetz, Deutch talk Trump, ‘mobs’
Two of Florida’s four members of the House Judiciary Committee joined CNN’s Jake Tapper on Sunday to discuss the volatile issues of the day, plus the governor’s race. Republican Matt Gaetz from Fort Walton Beach joined Ted Deutch of Boca Raton in a roundtable discussion that also included Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi.
While the exchange was civil, Deutch called out Gaetz for a “conspiracy theory” involving a video he released — and Trump retweeted — claiming the migrant caravan approaching the United States received cash as they were leaving Honduras. Gaetz corrected himself and said the payouts were taking place in Guatemala.
Deutch blasted Trump for “talking tough” against “asylum-seekers” and “when he’s ripping kids away from their parents,” referring to the now suspended “zero tolerance” policy at the border. He also said Trump is “not tough standing up to Vladimir Putin in Helsinki” and is “weak when he talks about how much he loves Kim Jong Un.”
When the subject turned to “mobs,” Tapper played the video of an incident involving House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in Miami (see below). After Bondi told her personal story of being confronted by a group of angry individuals, Deutch and Gaetz disagreed on what constituted a mob.
Deutch described the confrontations, including those protesting Kavanaugh, as “not a mob, it’s a movement.” After Gaetz questioned whether the protesters were moderate, Deutch repeated they constituted a “movement.”
One of the final exchanges included Deutch blasting DeSantis, who Deutch said spoke at an event that included speakers who want to see people get hurt. Gaetz brought up a report of an LGBTQ activist recently being attacked at a rally for Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum.
Dunn dealing with Michael aftermath
Republican Rep. Neal Dunn has been busy on behalf of his district, much of which was devastated by Hurricane Michael. In addition to working with Scott on behalf of District 2, he brought a prominent member of House leadership to the Panhandle.
“My good friend Majority Whip Steve Scalise came down to Port St. Joe to hear from local leaders and survey damage,” Dunn said in a weekly online newsletter. “We helped serve hot meals to hardworking folks in the area courtesy of Drago’s Seafood. Drago’s is a Louisiana-based restaurant that traveled down to Gulf County to provide 1,000 meals to victims of Hurricane Michael. Thank you to all who have donated time and efforts to helping out those who need it most.”
As he interacts with those affected and seeks state and federal assistance for his constituents, Dunn is also running for re-election. Television ads have begun airing from Tallahassee to Panama City.
He also picked up the support of Trump, not surprisingly delivered via Twitter.
“Congressman Neal Dunn (@DunnCampaign) of Florida has done an outstanding job at everything having to do with #MAGA,” Trump said. “Now working hard on hurricane relief and rebuild. Strong on Crime, strong on Borders, loves our Military and our Vets. Neal has my highest Endorsement!”
Dunn is facing Bob Rackleff, a former Leon County Commissioner and former speechwriter for President Jimmy Carter.
Miller boosted by GOP leadership
Scalise made another stop in Florida, visiting Central Florida on Friday stumping for what he hopes will be a future member of Congress. He was in the area on behalf of state Rep. Mike Miller, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy for the District 7 seat in the House.
“I love this guy. I want to serve in Congress with this guy, but this is a winnable race. You all know this. That’s why you’re out,” Scalise said told the rally. “This race is tightening up to where we can win this race; Mike can win this race and serve in Congress.”
Scalise is traveling around the country campaigning for challengers and incumbents as his party tries to retain the majority in Congress. He is also potentially collecting future IOUs.
The veteran lawmaker from Louisiana is said to be a candidate to succeed Ryan as Speaker of the House should the GOP hold onto the majority. During his appearance for Miller, Scalise pushed hard for Republican economic policies, including last year’s tax cuts.
Scalise, who was the victim of an assignation attempt last year, argued that since the economy is doing as well as it is, it is a critical time to elect Republicans like Miller. while Democrats like Stephanie Murphy need to be ousted.
“What’s at stake is a whole lot about how we are going to keep our country moving forward, or are we going to go back to the days of when Nancy Pelosi was speaker,” Scalise said. “Go back especially to the period of 2008-2010, in that two-year period they wrecked our economy with higher taxes, higher regulation, things like Dodd-Frank,” referring to the legislation passed to address the 2008 financial meltdown.
Miller said Scalise gave him some good advice.
“He told me, you’ve got to remind voters, Stephanie Murphy voted against that stuff,” Miller told the gathering of about 100 people. “She voted against the tax cuts that led to this economic recovery.
“She wants to bring us back to where we were eight years ago, when we had one percent growth,” he continued. “Now there are literally hundreds of thousands of jobs that can’t be filled. Think about that, we have full employment.”
At the moment, Miller is trailing Murphy in the polls and campaign cash. The district was previously a reliable GOP area, but that changed in 2016 when Murphy upset 12-term Republican John Mica.
Feds follow Crist’s lead on Marlin Financial
The House Financial Services Committee is reviewing allegations against Marlin Financial that the company uses unfair and deceptive business practices that cost its customers money.
The decision, penned in a letter to Congress last week, is in response to U.S. Representative Charlie Crist who called for an investigation late last month.
Marlin Financial is a Florida-based business with offices in Tampa, Orlando and Miami. At issue are the company’s auto loans, which several complainants in lawsuits claim include a debt cancellation product the company claims is optional, but that stops the loan process dead in its tracks if customers decline it.
Choosing the debt cancellation option balloons customer’s interest rates to, in many cases, exceed state laws regulating how much interest companies can charge. The result has been several customers having their cars repossessed after defaulting on payments because the premiums were suddenly too high to afford.
“The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was created by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act to go after bad actors like Marlin Financial. As CFPB reviews and verifies their deceptive practices, I encourage any Floridians who have been abused by this company to make their voices heard,” Crist said. “Let this be a flashing red warning sign to all who would take advantage of the people. Your days of financial abuse are numbered.”
Victims of alleged abuses can file claims against Marlin Financial with the CFPB.
The letter to Crist calls the claims from local Marlin customers “troubling.” The Bureau explained they cannot confirm investigations, but said it takes the allegations seriously.
Also, at issue in the Marlin complaints are the company’s failure to allow customers whose vehicles have been repossessed access to the car to retrieve personal items, which is required under Florida law.
“Marlin Financial has engaged in unscrupulous business practices including requiring the purchase of unnecessary debt cancellation insurance, charging consumers usurious interest rates, seizing consumers’ personal items within repossessed vehicles, and failing to respond to customer complaints,” Crist wrote in his September 25 letter to the CFPB.
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi’s office is already investigating the allegations.
Castor announces climate change coalition
The University of South Florida School of Architecture and Community Design’s Florida Center for Community Design and Research (FCCDR) is teaming up with the community to draft plans to deal with climate-related impacts to Florida such as red tide and hurricanes. Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor of Tampa worked with each to develop the collaboration.
“Hurricane Michael has shown us with its devastation to Mexico Beach, Panama City and other areas that — no matter how large or small — our communities are not immune to the effects of climate change and the extreme weather events these global changes bring,” Castor said.
Castor met with both FCCDR and USF to inspire the collaboration. She also recently met with community stakeholders and scientists from throughout the state to discuss how climate change was affecting red tide and what they could do to address it.
“As I continue my push in the U.S. Congress for legislation dedicated to reducing carbon pollution and building more resilient communities, we must also work together in our local communities to overcome fragmented approaches to climate change and create a more resilient economic and environmental foundation to mitigate and adapt to this global issue,” she added.
Castor is the Vice Ranking Member of the House of Energy and Commerce Committee which has oversight responsibilities for environmental policies and has also championed the cause environmental issues.
Surprise brewing in CD 15?
Sometimes late in a campaign, a race that no one saw as a race comes out of nowhere. Is the campaign for the vacant District 15 seat one of those?
Republican state Rep. Ross Spano is favored to win the seat being vacated by Ross, but Democrat Kristen Carlson has significantly outraised Spano throughout the campaign. Now, a New York Times poll shows the race in a 43-43 tie.
The pollster admitted the survey sample was small and that it was “only one poll” and the margin of error was plus or minus five points. Other polls have shown a tight race, but this was the second one to show it even.
On Monday, another poll surfaced from the district that is now on the national radar. Remington Research Group gave Spano a 6-point lead.
It is normally a solidly Republican district, which should give some comfort to the Spano campaign. Trump won the district by 16 points in 2016 and Mitt Romney had a 6-point advantage over Obama in 2012.
The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has the race as “leans Republican,” while FiveThirtyEight calls is a “tossup.”
Handicapper finds new opportunities for Democratic flips
A handful of delegation races are coming down to the wire with Democrats retaining at least some chance of flipping, while another could be moving away from them. The Tampa Bay Times has shifted races into the “vulnerable” category, highlighting the fundraising prowess and campaign efforts of women Democratic candidates.
In District 25, Republican incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart has moved into the “vulnerable” category after previously been tabbed as “potentially vulnerable” to the challenge of Mary Barzee Flores. The Times has moved the District 15 race between Spano and Carlson as “vulnerable” to a Democratic pickup.
In District 6, Michael Waltz is now listed as “vulnerable” to the challenge of Nancy Soderberg.
A strong effort by Salazar has moved District 25 from “highly vulnerable” for a flip to “vulnerable.” Shalala remains a slight favorite.
Moving from “vulnerable to “potentially vulnerable” is the District 16 contest between Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan and Democratic challenger David Shapiro.
GOP criticized for ‘angry mob’
Last week, Democrats and some Republicans criticized an “angry mob” of protesters that hounded House candidates Donna Shalala, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi at a campaign event in Miami. Shouts of “****ing Communist” followed the three as they closed a door behind them, followed by more vulgar taunts and pounding on the door.
After Trump began using the “Jobs Not Mobs” line against Democrats following the scenes during the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation hearing, this was not helpful to their public appeals for civility. Following the event, Miami-Dade GOP Chairman Nelson Diaz apologized for how the protest got out of hand, but denied any linkage to the far right Proud Boys group, who were the lead agitators.
“I made a mistake and I apologize for it, but I have nothing to do with that group,” he said, adding that he only learned about the group’s existence a “few days” ago. “I am not a member of the Proud Boys group, nor do I support this group or their mission … I attended this protest because of my familial background and personal beliefs against those that support an oppressive Cuban government.”
Tensions rose when a rally on behalf of Shalala and Mucarsel-Powell was to include California Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee, who said in 2016 Fidel Castro should be mourned following his death. Lee was disinvited when the candidates learned of her previous comments.
Some Republicans condemned the actions of the mob, including Scalise of Louisiana.
“I don’t agree with Nancy Pelosi’s agenda, but this is absolutely the wrong way to express those disagreements,” Scalise said. “If you want to stop her policies, don’t threaten her, VOTE! That’s how we settle our differences.”
Scalise was shot last year by a Democratic activist on a baseball field while practicing for the Congressional Baseball Game.
Retiring Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, whom Shalala seeks to replace in CD 27, was traveling in the Middle East on Foreign Affairs Committee business but did issue a statement through a spokesperson.
“(Ros-Lehtinen) does not believe that any individuals associated with hate or incitement to violence or bigotry have a place in civil political discourse,” the statement said. “Groups like the Proud Boys that also participated in the Nazi-sympathizing rally in Charlottesville do not contribute to the democratic and uniting values for which our country stands.”
Congressional Republicans dump shift $1 million into CD 27
Triage is a term best used in wartime when doctors are confronted with multiple patients and after medical assessments, determine who they can save. During the last few weeks of campaigns, a bit of political triage takes place when resources are shifted from hopeless campaigns to ones where extra attention might save the day.
Such a scenario has developed involving a Florida race. The National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC), has given up on Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman and shifted $1 million from his race to Maria Elvira Salazar’s effort to pull an upset against Shalala in District 27.
The NRCC is investing $1.5 million in broadcast and cable TV ads in the expensive Miami television market. The NRCC, along with the Republican National Committee and GOP-aligned PACS, has raised enormous sums during and following the confirmation of Kavanaugh.
Two recent polls show different results. A recent poll by Mason Dixon showed Salazar with a two-point lead, while a New York Times/Sienna poll released over the weekend puts Shalala on top by 7 points.
On this day in the headlines
October 23, 1962 — President John F. Kennedy ordered a U.S. “quarantine” blockade of Cuba last night, saying the Soviets are sending Fidel Castro offensive weapons able to rain nuclear destruction on the Americas. In a speech to the nation from the Oval Office Kennedy said, “Let no one doubt this is a difficult and dangerous effort on which we have set out … Our goal is not the victory of might, but the vindication of right …”
“The consensus of everyone was this had to be done,” said Florida Democratic Sen. George Smathers, who was part of a Senate leadership group meeting with Kennedy. “The principal consensus was there must be unity. The leaders — Republicans and Democrats — indicated they will join hands behind the president because he is the commander-in-chief.”
October 23, 2006 — Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, whose political star is rising at dizzying speed, said he is considering running for the Democratic presidential nomination and will decide after the midterms whether to enter the race. Appearing on NBC’s Meet the Press, Obama, who was elected to the Senate in 2004, said his commitment to serve out his full term is no longer valid.
“That is how I was thinking at the time and I don’t want to be coy about this,” Obama said. “Given the response I’ve been getting over the past several months, I have thought about the possibility. But I have not thought about it with the seriousness and depth that I think is required.
