Danny McAuliffe
The latest poll of the U.S. Senate race isn’t affording confidence to either candidate.
Term-limited Republican Gov. Rick Scott leads 49-48 in his race against Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, according to a poll released Saturday by St. Pete Polls.
The lead is within the survey’s 2 percent margin of error, meaning the two candidates are in dead heat as early voting closes around most of the state on Saturday.
The poll, completed just days away from the Nov. 6 election, surveyed 2,733 likely registered voters or voters who plan to cast a ballot next Tuesday. Interviews were conducted via an automated telephone polling system.
Notably, more respondents (57 percent) indicated they’d already voted than those who said they plan to vote (43 percent). Roughly 40 percent of the sample is registered Republican, 39 percent Democrat and 22 percent non-party affiliates.
Nelson led among those sampled who said they already voted, 51-47. But Scott led by a much-larger margin among those who said they plan to cast a ballot, 52-43.
Scott led among white voters sampled 56-41, while Nelson captured nearly 78 percent of the vote from black voters in the poll.
Among Hispanics, a bloc to which both candidates have fought to appeal, Scott led Nelson by more than a point.
Party faithfuls backed their candidates almost evenly, with Scott leading among Republicans 80-18 and Nelson taking Democrats 78-18.
Across non-party affiliates, the fastest-growing group of voters in the state, Scott picked up more of the slack, leading by about half a point. The poll, which also surveyed the Governor’s race, showed those same NPAs broke for Democratic candidate Andrew Gillum 47-45 over Republican Ron DeSantis.
In that poll, Gillum led by a margin only slightly larger than Scott’s lead, suggesting that a split-ticket scenario could unfold on Election Day.
When Scott entered the Senatorial race in April, it set the stage for what was thought to be the marquee matchup of Florida’s midterm election. But a closely contested Governor’s race that’s drawn to Florida several high-profile politicians from across the country has since arguably overshadowed Scott and Nelson’s bids.
Still, the senatorial hopefuls have deployed extraordinary amounts of capital behind their candidacies.
Scott‘s campaign has spent $66.5 million, $51 million of it from Scott’s personal fortune, seeking to win Florida’s U.S. Senate seat. That’s only through Oct. 17, the latest date for which candidates’ campaigns have reported their expenditures.
Nelson‘s campaign has spent $24.5 million through Oct. 17.
Nationally, the race is viewed by Republicans as a chance to shift the GOP-controlled upper chamber’s leaning more in their favor. For Democrats, Nelson is one of many incumbents facing formidable opposition.
Outside interests have responded accordingly.
The New Republican Political Action Committee that Scott established to back his campaign with outside money, and the Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC, backing Nelson, have combined to spend more than $86.1 million on Florida’s U.S. Senate contest. Those reports are nearly current, into at least early filings on Friday.
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Florida Politics Orlando correspondent Scott Powers contributed reporting.
18 comments
Jack B
November 3, 2018 at 8:46 pm
Im puzzled according to the polls isnt Gwen Graham the Democratic candidate for Governor???
I guess polls are like horoscopes, you see what you want
Mary Meyer
November 4, 2018 at 2:26 pm
I find it extremely offensive and, frankly, typical of a Democrat, to make a comment that Republican voters are KKK supporters. We may have been called Deplorables”, but the true deplorables are the Democrats making comments such as this.
Mary
November 4, 2018 at 2:29 pm
I guess you were sleeping in August. Gwen Graham lost the Primary in an upset to Andrew Gillum. Not that it matters to me, I wouldn’t vote for either one.
Milbra Mauldin
November 3, 2018 at 9:12 pm
We are totally disappointed and disgusted with the campaign ads for both Scott and Nelson. When will politicians finally realize that our nation needs leaders with character and integrity???
Gregory P
November 3, 2018 at 9:42 pm
It’s so important to stop the evil! Vote Blue.
Eric
November 3, 2018 at 11:05 pm
Rick Scott needs to go home. Vote for Nelson. Scott has done nothing for Florida, except line his pockets.
Nelson is a Communist
November 3, 2018 at 11:38 pm
What has Nelson ever done? 40 years in Congress and never done a thing. Please do tell what Nelson has done besides suck Obama and Shumer’s small nut sacks. Scott had turned Florida’s economy around, brought jobs and has helped bring assets for hurricane victims. Democrats have no plan, never have and never will. Liberals are weak and go on feelings, not results. Keep getting your political insight from fake news, the view and dumbass celebrities. Let businessmen like Scott run the country. Idiot Democrat Liberal Communists. And Nelson looks like an alien. He and Pelosi must botox together.
Lauren
November 4, 2018 at 7:38 pm
Tell me what Scott has done besides run a company that committed Medicare fraud and completely undermined the US government? Oh wait, that’s okay because he made a profit and therefore is a successful businessman, so we should elect him based solely on that? The fact that he can make money for his own personal benefit? Don’t let your ignorance and bias cloud you from the fact that success isn’t always equivalent to money. The “weakness” that you equate to “feelings” is called humanity. Maybe you should research it and learn how to become a better human being before you make more idiotic comments about things that people cannot control, like their looks. Nelson and Pelosi may look bad to you, but it’s nothing in comparison to your vile attitude 🙂
Roderick Pugh
November 4, 2018 at 8:35 pm
Rick Scott’s former company paid. $1.7B to the government for Medicare fraud while Rick Scott took home $300M in Company stock. If cutting $$ Millions from environmental agencies and public education is good for Florida’s economy, ask the school teachers who are among the poorest paid in the country and people whose Lively hoods rely on tourism which has been devastated by the red tide . With one of the highest percentage of seniors living in Florida I’m puzzled why they voted for the man who committed the biggest Medicare fraud in US history.
Mary
November 4, 2018 at 2:18 pm
No, it is do nothing Nelson who needs to go home. He is one of the Poster children proving why we need term limits. He should of been out of office decades ago.
Gabriella
November 5, 2018 at 12:27 am
Are you serious!!! Rick Scott history in being businesses to FL is amazing. It’s actually what he is known for!!! He is known as the guy that spent hours calling big companies himself! It’s sad that people don’t research before they write something.
Roderick Pugh
November 5, 2018 at 12:48 am
Why would anyone with a senior population the size of Florida vote for a man whose company HCA paid a fine of $1.7B for defrauding Medicare? He got off scot-free, pardon the pun while he threw his CFO under the bus and went to prison. If you don’t believe me Google it. Do you know how to Google?
Roderick Pugh
November 4, 2018 at 12:55 am
Everyone who lives in areas affected by the red tide who voted for Scott have only themselves to blame for lost tourism $$ because Scott cut the environmental agencies by $100’s Millions. Fort Myers is deep red and they are losing lots of money from tourism. The West Coast is hit hard by the red tide and it’s mostly GOP territory. Fort Myers even boasts a chapter of the KKK. Anyone who votes Republican is voting for the KKK pure and simple. Just listen to Trump.
Mary Meyer
November 4, 2018 at 2:22 pm
I find it extremely offensive and, frankly, typical of a Democrat, to make a comment that Republican voters are KKK supporters. We may have been called Deplorables”, but the true deplorables are the Democrats making comments such as this.
Treasure
November 4, 2018 at 4:29 pm
SHUT up, you UNkulup
Roderick Pugh
November 4, 2018 at 8:11 pm
Excuse me Mary, but if I recall Trump said there were fine people on both sides of the Charlottesville March. If Trump thinks the KKK, neo-nazis, and white nationalists are fine people then it stands to reason his followers think the same thing because his followers I should say cult members are brainwashed and radicalized. So yes Mary Republicans do support the KKK and white nationalists and neo-nazis so there.
Roderick Pugh
November 4, 2018 at 8:38 pm
Rick Scott’s former company paid. $1.7B to the government for Medicare fraud while Rick Scott took home $300M in Company stock. If cutting $$ Millions from environmental agencies and public education is good for Florida’s economy, ask the school teachers who are among the poorest paid in the country and people whose Lively hoods rely on tourism which has been devastated by the red tide . With one of the highest percentage of seniors living in Florida I’m puzzled why they voted for the man who committed the biggest Medicare fraud in US history.
Juan Ruiz
November 5, 2018 at 10:22 am
Please in Florida, calling all voters for liberty — especially cubanos, venezolanos, puertorriqueños —- VOTE DESANTIS AND SCOTT!!!! Especially if you love Jesus and you know socialism leads to death. Por favor —NO AL SOCIALISMO
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