Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
BREAKING — Former House Speaker, Senator and current Florida State University President John Thrasher announced he and his wife Jean have tested positive for COVID-19. “I’m working from home as we both isolate,” Thrasher tweeted Tuesday afternoon. “We are feeling well at this time and truly appreciate everyone’s support and well wishes!” After nearly six years leading FSU, Thrasher announced his retirement in September and will continue to serve as president until a replacement is found.
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It’s the final sprint to Election Day, and campaigns are on an ad spending spree. On Tuesday alone, candidates running for Congress and state legislative seats spent more than $600,000 buying TV and radio ads.
Here’s a rundown of the latest ad buys in Florida politics:
— Miami-Dade Mayor: Democratic candidate Daniella Levine Cava spent $17K for radio ads airing Oct. 5 through Oct. 9 in the contest for Miami-Dade County Mayor. This is the first media buy from her campaign account, though the Miami-Dade Democratic Party has funded $719K in ads supporting her.
— SD 39: FRSCC 3 PAC, which is backing Republican Rep. Ana Maria Rodriguez, made a $112K media buy for broadcast and cable ads running Wednesday through Oct. 13.
— CD 2: Republican U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn spent $140K on broadcast ads airing through Oct. 25 in the Panama City and Tallahassee markets. This is his first media buy this election.
— CD 7: Republican Leo Valentin spent $13K for broadcast and cable ads airing through Oct. 12 in the Orlando market. Of that, $10K goes to broadcast and $3K will put ads on WAPA network.
— CD 15: Democratic nominee Alan Cohn made a $77K broadcast buy for ads airing today through Oct. 12 in the Tampa market. Republican nominee Scott Franklin spent $39K for broadcast and cable ads airing for the same dates. Additionally, the Republican Party of Florida bout $32K in broadcast time boosting Franklin Tuesday through Thursday.
— CD 18: Democratic nominee Pam Keith placed a $73K broadcast buy for ads airing today through Oct. 12. The buy included $53K for broadcast ads in the West Palm Beach market and $20K for ads on CNN and MSNBC.
— CD 26: The DCCC added $44K to their radio buy backing Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The ads will air through Oct. 18. Also, Republican challenger Carlos Giménez made a $20K cable buy for ads airing through Oct. 12.
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Donald Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis has moved the needle, at least among bettors.
According to BoyleSports, the President’s chances of winning reelection have dwindled in the days since news broke he and many others in the White House tested positive for coronavirus.
The odds weren’t great beforehand, sitting at 11/10. Now they’re 6/4.
As Trump’s outlook has gotten gloomier, Joe Biden’s has gotten brighter. Bettors now give the former Vice President 8/15 odds of becoming the 46th President of the United States. Before Trump’s diagnosis, he had 8/11 odds.
If you notice some still some wiggle room there, that’s because Vice President Mike Pence chances have shot up considerably — he now has a 20/1 chance of winning the presidency. Biden’s running mate, U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, has 200/1 odds.
“The President’s return to the White House certainly had a lot of theater about it but punters aren’t buying into a second term for Trump with only a few weeks to go,” BoyleSports spox Lawrence Lyons said. “Joe Biden has been backed in big numbers since the first debate and with the campaign set to resume, it’s his to lose as the 8/15 from 8/11 favorite.”
Coronavirus Numbers
Positive cases:
— 711,358 FL residents (+2,201 since Monday)
— 8,767 Non-FL residents (+50 since Monday)
Origin:
— 6,003 Travel related
— 262,713 Contact with a confirmed case
— 6,337 Both
— 436,305 Under investigation
Hospitalizations:
— 45,004 in FL
Deaths:
— 14,945 in FL
Evening Reads
“Mike Pence, Kamala Harris teams at odds over plexiglass at debate” via and of The Washington Post
“Florida extends voter registration deadline after website failure” via Gary Fineout of POLITICO
“Miami Mayor to Donald Trump: Don’t come here to debate if you have COVID” via Marc Caputo of POLITICO
“Jerome Powell warns of prolonged economic pain without help as Trump calls off stimulus talks” via Jeanna Smialek of The New York Times
“Military leaders quarantined after official tests positive” via Lolita C. Baldor of The Associated Press
“Joe Biden mounts late fight for Miami” via Sabrina Rodriguez and Marc Caputo of POLITICO
“Facebook and Twitter take action against misleading Trump post” via Maria Arias of Axios
“Ron DeSantis teases Trump’s imminent return to Florida” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
“Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, Corey Lewandowski to rally MAGA troops in Naples” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
“Florida AARP balks at Michael Bloomberg attack ad targeting Donald Trump” via Matt Dixon of POLITICO
“Florida voters want to hit the brakes on SCOTUS confirmation, state reopening” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
“FDA discloses vaccine guidelines blocked by White House” via Matthew Perrone and Zeke Miller of The Associated Press
“New poll finds minimum wage amendment on edge of passing” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics
“Unemployment surges in Florida after September dip” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics
“Wilton Simpson announces Tampa General contract for Session COVID-19 plan” via Renzo Downey of Florida Politics
“Regulators reject bid to halt electricity disconnections” via the News Service of Florida
Quote of the Day
“I don’t have any details but if I were a betting man, I’d bet you’ll see him very soon in Florida.” — Gov. Ron DeSantis, on Trump returning to the campaign trail.
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