Former Vice President Joe Biden holds an 11-point lead over President Donald Trump one week before the election, according to the newest edition of the CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
Biden’s 51% to 40% lead represents a two-point increase from the June poll and is six points better than April.
National polls are not indicative of how the race will play out in individual states. In Florida, for instance, a recent St. Pete Polls survey showed Biden leading by just 2 points, which was well within the poll’s margin of error.
Another positive for Biden is his standing among seniors and white women — two blocs that went for Trump four years ago. CNBC now says Biden and Trump are tied among both demographics.
The poll also shows a substantial part of Biden’s lead drawn from new voters and young voters, two groups whose turnout has long been suspect in elections.
“It comes down to the younger voters and the non-2016 voters,” said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research Associates, who served as the Democratic pollster on the survey. “If they do not turn out in substantial numbers, that makes the entire election a ton closer.”
On Trump, the pollster said his reelection chances will hinge on his ability to turn out his base, which CNBC pegs at an “unshakeable, but so far unexpandable” 40% of the U.S. electorate.
If President closes the gap, “it’s because he’s changed the composition of the electorate in such a way that he’s driving turnout among white non-college grads and probably in the Midwest and in rural areas in swing states,” said Micah Roberts, partner with Public Opinion Strategies, who served as the Republican pollsters for the survey.
Trump’s deficit in the election mirrors his approval rating, which also rang in at minus-11. Just 42% approve of the President while 53% disapprove.
On the economy — traditionally Trump’s strongest silo in approval polls — he’s now breaking even at 47%-47%. Two years ago, Trump crested at plus-15 on the economy.
Still, 47% of respondents said they are better off financially then they were four years ago, with 35% saying they are about the same and just 17% saying worse.
Wealthy Americans, those with money in the stock market and Trump supporters are among those most likely to answer they are better off.
Issue rankings also indicate an uphill battle for the President.
Among his weakest issues are health care and pandemic, which placed as the top two voter concerns. In both, voters break for Biden.
Voters also ranked the candidates’ “personal character and integrity” as a top issue. Those responding that it was their most important issue favored Biden by 37 points, 66% to 29%.
The economy and law and order were next, and voters see Trump as the stronger option on both.
But his issue wins were mostly at the bottom of voters’ priority lists — taxes, immigration and relations with china — are most critical to Trump voters. Climate change, a top issue for Biden, also ranks low on the list.
The poll of 800 registered voters poll was conducted Wednesday through Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.