Internal poll shows Anna Paulina Luna with massive lead in CD 13 GOP field

luna ART
Her support rises if voters learn she's endorsed by Donald Trump.

An internal poll shows St. Petersburg Republican Anna Paulina Luna easily leading the GOP field in Florida’s 13th Congressional District.

Spry Strategies conducted a poll of likely Republican Primary voters and found approximately 35% favor Luna. She comes into the race after winning the nomination in 2020 and challenging Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist for the seat.

This time, Crist is not seeking re-election and is instead running for Governor.

All other Republicans polled in single digits in the survey. The closest Republican behind Luna in the poll was former prosecutor Kevin Hayslett, with more than 9% of the vote. GOP strategist Amanda Makki showed up close behind with just under 9%. Christine Quinn, who previously challenged Rep. Kathy Castor, earned 4%, while Audrey Henson garnered support from less than 2% of respondents.

The poll was released to Florida Politics by Luna’s campaign. The survey was conducted from March 23 to 27, gathering responses from 847 likely voters. Pollsters reported a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

That means Luna’s lead of more than 26 percentage points falls well outside the margin of error. At the same time, pollsters found more than 42% of likely Primary voters remain undecided.

But more good news for Luna: she holds the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, and the survey found that to be extremely valuable.

More than 86% of likely Republican Primary voters in the Pinellas County district approve of Trump’s performance as President, with just over 13% disapproving.

The poll also measured Luna’s level of support with the base. It found that 56% of likely Primary voters view her favorably, and 15% view her unfavorably.

When pollsters informed respondents that Luna holds the Trump endorsement in the race, she reached nearly 53% support, a majority. That’s a lead of almost 47 percentage points over the next closest candidate. That version of the poll showed Makki is the next behind Luna, with just over 6%, while Hayslett has just under 6%. Quinn drops to 2% and Hensen to 1% once voters learn who Trump endorsed.

The campaign memo notes Luna’s support is consistent with one conducted by St. Pete Polls in October. That poll, which included Luna, Makki, Hensen and Matt Tito, showed Luna with nearly 37% support among likely Primary voters, with 6% going to Makki, about 3% to Tito and just over 2% for Hensen. That poll showed that informing respondents of the Trump endorsement lifted Luna’s support by about 62%.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].

One comment

  • tom palmer

    April 5, 2022 at 6:10 pm

    How does she poll against the Democrats?

Comments are closed.


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