A.G. Gancarski
Though the Primary isn’t until August, those playing one prediction market around the Democratic race for Governor are concentrating largely on one candidate.
Participants on the PredictIt platform are increasingly investing in U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist and that action is coming at the expense of the campaign of Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried.
The closing price Tuesday for a “Yes” share of Crist was 90 cents, while a Fried “Yes” share settled at 15 cents. State Sen. Annette Taddeo “Yes” shares closed at two cents.
April momentum has been with Crist, a former Republican Governor and current Democratic Congressman.
On April 4, a “Yes” share was priced at just 67 cents, which was a low point. A “Yes” share for Fried was priced at 32 cents on April 3, meanwhile.
Months ago, the prediction market reflected an even closer dynamic. Crist was priced at 53 cents on Jan. 6, with Fried “Yes” shares at 39 cents. By Feb. 8, a Fried “Yes” share was priced at just 13 cents.
Taddeo lost ground also, with “Yes” shares tumbling from seven cents to one cent between April 9 and April 11. Three months ago, a Taddeo “Yes” share was priced at 15 cents.
The seeming coalescence in the Democratic Primary market has not shaken investor confidence in the re-election prospects of Gov. Ron DeSantis, however. “Yes” shares closed Wednesday priced at 89 cents.
A “Yes” share for Crist in the General Election, priced at 8 cents at this writing, is near the center of its range in the last 90 days, where prices have gone as high as a dime for a “Yes.”
Fried closed at 5 cents for a “Yes” share on Wednesday, another sign of waning investor confidence.
Worse off still is Taddeo, who continues to see “Yes” shares valued at just one penny. She has been in the low single digits for many weeks now.
