Florida Influencer poll: Dems will nominate Charlie Crist, feel lift from Roe opinion

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But there was a greater split on the question of what will Donald Trump do next?

Will the leaked Roe v. Wade opinion help Democrats in the Midterms? And who are Democrats for Governor running anyway? For our latest Florida Influencer Poll, we asked a sample of political experts and insiders these questions and found pretty strong feelings.

The plurality of our Influencers see the leaked abortion decision as at least somewhat of a boon for the blue team. About 34% of respondents in our poll say the development will slightly help Democrats in November, and another 13% see it strongly helping Democrats.

“Roe v. Wade is kryptonite for the GOP,” said one Influencer. “It only fuels women to come out and vote against the GOP.”

Of note, 15% of Republicans polled see the Roe leak as a greater help to the Democratic Party, compared to just 2% of Democrats who see the leak netting Republican gains.

In total, just 15% of all respondents see it helping the GOP overall — including 19% of Republican respondents — and only 1% of our Influencers see the decision strongly boosting Republicans.

“Overturning Roe is likely to drive turnout for both sides, while slightly favoring Republicans, IMO,” one said.

The remaining 38% don’t see the opinion making much difference.

“Overturning Roe, as awful as that decision is, won’t come to mind for voters as immediately as issues like inflation,” one respondent said. “The fundamentals of the elections are so far against Democrats in Florida that this issue won’t have an immediate impact in this year’s elections.”

About those elections, which Democrat lead the party’s ticket? Overwhelmingly, Influencers expect U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist to win the Democratic nomination for Governor.

About 95% of those who responded to our questionnaire see Crist winning the Primary, including all Republican respondents. That compares to 5% who think the nod goes to Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried. No one suggested state Sen. Annette Taddeo or any other candidate could win the nomination.

As for that other election on the far horizon, we also asked Influencers if they believe a certain Mar-a-Lago retiree has another race in him. But the question of whether former President Donald Trump runs in 2024 divided respondents.

About 47% said that Trump will likely run. Another 8% responded with a definite “yes,” so most do expect to see him on the trail. But that doesn’t mean they all think that’s a good thing.

“While Trump will probably run for President, and I have voted for him twice, I will not easily support him again unless the Dem alternative is a Far Left WOKE person,” said one respondent. “I’m more interested in seeing a Floridian — Gov. Ron DeSantis — run for President as Florida has never had a legitimate presidential candidate from either major party (Trump is an interloper), and Florida is the only one of the 10 largest states in America to never had had a President or Vice President.”

Indeed, the prospect of a DeSantis candidacy drove commentary more than Trump did, regardless what people think the former President will do.

Notably, 43% think Trump likely won’t run again, and 1% see the prospect as a definite “no.” Based on comments, DeSantis is a big factor in that.

“DeSantis is playing everything perfectly from a political standpoint,” one respondent said. “He’s unstoppable right now, and if he does not trip over himself with an unforced error in the next year, Trump will not seek the GOP nomination in 2024 and DeSantis will be the presumptive nominee. DeSantis has done more to define the party and the shift of the GOP from a conservative to a populist party more than even Trump himself.”


The Influencers who took part in this survey:

Lester Abberger, Phil Ammann, Mario J. Bailey, Tim Baker, Albert Balido, Ashley Bauman, Robert Beck, Geoffrey Becker, Amanda Bevis, Alexandria Bickley, Taylor Biehl, Barney Bishop III, Katie Bohnett, Wilbur Brewton, Reggie Cardozo, Kevin Cate, James Chan, Jim Cherry, Brad Coker, Jordan Connors, Gus Corbella, Karen Cyphers, Jim Daughton, Pablo Diaz, Victor Rudy DiMaio, Andrew Dolberg, Ryan Duffy, Barry Edwards, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Anna Alexopoulos Farrar, Damien Filer, Matt Florell, Towson Fraser, Jennifer Green, Abel Harding, Jeff Hartley, Cynthia Henderson, Tasi Hogan, Jim Horne, Tanya Jackson, Yolanda Jackson, Christina Johnson, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Jeff Johnson, Fred Karlinsky, Micah Ketchel, Russ Klenet, Jeff Kottkamp, Kartik Krishnaiyer, Jackie Lee, John Lux, Jesse Manzano, Roly Marante, Beth Matuga, Darrick D. McGhee Sr., Kathy Mears, Sal Nuzzo, Meredith O’Rourke, Rick Oppenheim, Edie Ousley, Alex Pantinakis, Alex Patton, Darryl Paulson, Anthony Pedicini, Sean Phillippi, Gretchen Picotte, Ron Pierce, Evan Power, Noah Pransky, Bert Ralston, Foyt RalstonMarc Reichelderfer, Darren Richards, Jim Rimes, Jason Roth, Preston Rudie, Elnatan Rudolph, Steve Simeonidis, Patrick Slevin, Mac Stipanovich, Chris Stranburg, Phillip Suderman, Alan Suskey, Allison Tant, Herbie Thiele, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Claire VanSusteren, Nancy Watkins, Screven Watson, Christian Weiss, Andrew Wiggins, Gregory Wilson, Rick Wilson and Dr. Peter A Wish.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


  • james conklin

    May 10, 2022 at 7:38 am

    just another post from someone who doesn’t know the law and opinion doesn’t matter.

  • cbd oil 20%

    May 15, 2022 at 4:42 pm

    Thanks for bringing this topic up. In fact, it seems to me that no one should care what a woman does with her own body. Don’t you think that everyone is free to do what they want? This is the body of this person, and if a person understands that he has absolutely no resources for this child, then the child should not be born. For some reason, every time we forget about orphanages, from where a very small percentage of children end up in a family. Let’s also remember the harm to women’s health from the process of giving birth. Maybe then the person himself should decide whether it is worth taking such a risk?

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