Ron DeSantis reaches new highs in 2024 prediction market

Gov. Ron DeSantis continues to downplay interest in a 2024 presidential run, but evidence continues to show he’s taken very seriously as a potential candidate.

A key prediction market, or at least its investors, has taken particular notice. PredictIt markets concerning both the Republican nomination and the Presidential Election are showing DeSantis has hit new highs in recent days.

In the still-hypothetical race for the 2024 GOP nomination, DeSantis has trended of late toward parity with former President Donald Trump. The latest “Yes” price for DeSantis was 33 cents, and in the last week, DeSantis shares have closed at 35 cents. Trump’s latest “Yes” price is 37 cents.

While Trump action has stayed relatively static, with prices near or at 40 cents a share, DeSantis has seen increased enthusiasm. The spread between “Yes” shares for the former President and the Governor was around 10 cents three months ago. The momentum here jibes with that of various polls showing DeSantis as an increasingly viable Trump alternative.

No other Republican is really a factor for investors here. The latest price for “Yes” shares for third place Nikki Haley was 7 cents, and other potential candidates are farther back.

The tightening spread between DeSantis and Trump extends to action on the General Election. Just as in the case with the nomination market, investors are rallying to the Governor over the former President.

The latest price on a Trump “Yes” share was 29 cents, just two cents ahead of DeSantis. Both Republicans are well ahead of their Democratic competition in the eyes of PredictIt investors. The latest “Yes” share price for President Joe Biden was just 22 cents, with Vice President Kamala Harris coming in at 10 cents.

DeSantis and Biden had been roughly comparable in terms of investor buy-in for the last few months, but DeSantis’ “Yes” shares have been priced over Biden’s since May 15, suggesting that a trend may be emerging in this market.

Public polling tracking DeSantis as a General Election candidate hasn’t fully caught up to investor confidence. The Harvard/Harris Poll continues to test DeSantis against Harris as a potential 2024 matchup, and VP Harris has led the last three surveys against the Florida Governor.