Poll finds Eric Lynn narrowly edging out Anna Paulina Luna, voters cite abortion, LGBTQ rights

Eric Lynn takes the advantage, since he had no Primary opposition.

A new poll predicts a tight race for Florida’s 13th Congressional District between Democratic nominee Eric Lynn and GOP frontrunner Anna Paulina Luna.

The recently released survey, conducted by David Binder Research, polled 600 likely November voters within CD 13 between June 25 to June 28. The survey used mixed modes of telephone (mobile and landline) and online text-to-web. The margin of error is ±4 at the 95% confidence level. The poll was commissioned by Progress Pinellas.

The poll found Lynn holding a marginal lead over Luna, 45% to 43%, making for a tight race that falls into the poll’s margin of error.

Luna’s camp disputes the validity of the poll.

“This ‘poll’ refuses to disclose its partisan splits because it’s a fake poll,” said James Blair, a consultant for Luna. “The pollster has called 33% of races correctly, according to Nate Silver/538. The District went Trump +7 points in 2022. It has a 31,000+ and growing Republican voter registration advantage.”

Unsurprisingly, Lynn led among Democrats, 79% to 11%, and Luna led among Republicans 74% to 14%. But among critical unaffiliated voters, Lynn led Luna by a wide margin, 47% to 35%.

Overall, those who chose Lynn appeared more secure in their decision. When asked “who would you vote for if the election were held today?” 38% of voters who chose Lynn said they’d “definitely” vote for the Democrat, while 6% said they might change their mind and 1% saying they just “lean” toward Lynn. For Luna, 36% of voters who selected her said they’d “definitely” vote for her, 5% said they might change their mind and 2% said lean.

So, why might the right-leaning district support Lynn?

Voters polled expressed strong support for a candidate “who will keep politicians and the government out of people’s personal decisions on abortion and who they marry,” with 78% of voters supporting this candidate and only 14% opposing.

“Anna Paulina is going to stomp Eric Lynn,” said Blair, the consultant to Luna. “Even Eric Lynn knows that. His own campaign poll published at the end of June shows Anna +9. Loaded polls are a tool of shady consultants and failed campaigns that want to mislead their donors.”

That’s in line with recent internal polling released by the Lynn campaign, which found after presenting information on both candidates’ positions, 52% support Lynn compared to 42% who stick with Luna and 8% who remain undecided.

The poll predicts Luna as the likely Republican Primary winner, with the former 2020 nominee leading in polls among her Republican opponents. The GOP field is crowded this election cycle, including former prosecutor Kevin Hayslett, nonprofit founder Audrey Henson, Republican strategist Amanda Makki and Christine Quinn. Makki lost the Republican Primary to Luna in 2020.

Luna lost to incumbent Rep. Charlie Crist in the more Democrat-friendly district. Crist this year is running for Governor. Luna has already landed the backing of several conservative groups including Club for Growth, and the new makeup of the district makes it a top prospect to flip red this fall.

Crist has endorsed Lynn as his preferred successor for the Pinellas County district.