Internal poll shows Democrat Eric Lynn with path to victory over Anna Paulina Luna

Lynn, Eric - 6
But the numbers also show any Republican in CD 13 starts with the advantage.

Internal polling released by Pinellas Democrat Eric Lynn shows a path to victory over Republican Anna Paulina Luna. That’s despite a distinct GOP lean to Florida’s 13th Congressional District on a new congressional map.

A polling memo from Global Strategy Group indicates the race is wide open. With no incumbent in the field, all candidates remain unknown to most voters.

“With no candidate well known, and one in five voters currently undecided on who to support for Congress, once Eric Lynn can introduce himself and present Anna Paulina Luna’s extremist positions, he’s able to gain a strong lead in this race, reaching 50% of the vote,” the memo asserts.

Simply polling Lynn against Luna finds the Republican with a lead, with 45% supporting her and 36% backing the Democrat, but with 20% undecided.

But after informing voters of Lynn’s strengths and Luna’s perceived weaknesses, pollsters found a majority of voters could support the Democrat. After presenting information on both candidates’ positions, 52% support Lynn compared to 42% who stick with Luna and 8% who remain undecided.

Lynn at one point was part of a competitive Democratic field including two prominent state lawmakers. But Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a controversial map that shifted CD 13 from a district where Democrat Joe Biden was supported by 51.36% of voters in 2020 to one where Republican Donald Trump led with 52.74% of the vote. That prompted both Reps. Ben Diamond and Michele Rayner-Goolsby to leave the congressional field.

Luna, meanwhile, leads in polls in a still-crowded Republican Primary field. She won the GOP nomination in 2020 and lost to incumbent Rep. Charlie Crist in the more Democrat-friendly district. Crist this year is running for Governor. Luna has already landed the backing of several conservative groups including Club for Growth, and the new makeup of the district makes it a top prospect to flip red this fall.

But Luna’s right-wing messaging provides Lynn an opportunity, his pollsters report.

The polling confirms Republicans hold an edge in voter self-identification, with 40% listing themselves as Democrats and 48% Republicans. In generic ballot support, there is an even more pronounced GOP advantage, with just 37% supporting a no-name Democrat and 48% going for an unidentified Republican.

But pollsters found when listing candidates, Lynn sits within striking distance of all major Republicans running, largely thanks to everyone in the field boasting low name recognition. To start, Luna leads Lynn by 9 percentage points. Comparatively, Republican Amanda Makki holds a 46% to 41% edge and Republican Kevin Hayslett holds just a 39% to 36% lead.

But an informed-voter test finds ways for Lynn to gain, particularly in a desire to work across the aisle with Republicans and in his support for reproductive rights. The poll found 59% of voters in CD 13 believe abortion should remain legal, for example.

Regarding more conservative positions held by Luna on gun rights and economic issues, pollsters found weakness within the electorate for the Republican front-runner. About 44% hold “major doubts” on her firearms agenda and 44% feel that way on her fiscal policies.

Informing voters of Lynn’s strengths and Luna’s weaknesses brings a majority of voters around to the Democrat.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


6 comments

  • R. A. Gemda

    June 21, 2022 at 5:38 am

    “Informing voters of Lynn’s strengths and Luna’s weaknesses brings a majority of voters around to the Democrat.”
    FLAPOL has set its agenda for the next four months. It will leave no opportunity unused to bash Republicans with canned stories, spin and outright lies. Can you imagine what it is going to be like in NE St. Pete on November 9 when they realize none of it worked? I can hear the ranting now: “Trumpsters!”, “poorly educated”, “white nationalists”, “right wingers”, “fascists,” “Christians”, “racists”, “thisaphobes”, “thataphobes” and on and on. I imagine they have the stories written already.

    Reply

    • R. A. Gemda is a Happy Little Fascist

      June 21, 2022 at 9:34 am

      Lies huh? Then you should be happy. Lies are what you are fed, supply and grow on. Why even vote? The same people are in power this year over the voting systems as two years ago when it was a sham. So why even vote? Or do you feel the state level moron slimebag GOP have done enough gerrymandering to overcome the deep state’s evil cabal? Yes, that’s the mark of the moral party… cheat to win and try to shout down information rather than offer a valid counterpoint. MAGA is pure garbage. Disgusting.

      Reply

  • David Happe

    June 21, 2022 at 8:06 am

    Luna is a stripper and needs to be defeated.

    Reply

    • You are not actually Dave Happe

      June 29, 2022 at 12:58 am

      This is a fake profile using someone else’s name. And actually might be intellectual property infringement.

      Reply

  • Arora

    June 25, 2022 at 2:47 pm

    Hi ! I am Arora & I’ll be your personal coach and will guide you in starting with an online business..nhj if you are interested in making $90 hourly and up to $12000 a month then follow link…𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝟮𝟰.𝗰𝗼𝗺

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