Voter registration numbers suggest six congressional districts could be in play
Incumbent v. incumbent: Al Lawson and Neal Dunn fight in a controversial district.

Lawson Dunn
In CD 2, GOP U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn's Republican Party has a 0.7 percentage point advantage in voter registration over U.S. Rep. Al Lawson's Democrats.

The electorate who was registered to vote in the August 23 Primary Election is split fairly evenly within six of Florida’s 28 congressional districts, though Republicans hold slight advantages in each of those areas heading toward the November General Election.

The voter registration book closing for the Aug. 23 Primary Election showed Florida had 14.3 million eligible voters registered for that contest, with between 407,000 and 588,000 voters registered in all of Florida’s 28 congressional districts.

Statewide, Republicans held the upper hand, with 5.2 million voters, compared with just under 5 million registered Democrats in the latest count. Another 4.2 million voters were registered without a party affiliation or aligned with one of the eight “minor” parties recognized by the Division of Elections, such as the Libertarian Party or the Green Party.

Florida’s voter party registrations have been trending in Republicans’ favor for several years. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and the GOP-controlled Legislature created new congressional district maps this year that exploit those voter advantages, with the possibility of electing more Republicans to Congress.

Heading into the fall campaign for the General Election, the latest official voter registration counts show that Republicans have what likely would be an insurmountable edge in voter registrations — an advantage of more than 15 percentage points over Democrats — in eight congressional districts, under the new map. Democrats have such an advantage in six districts.

Republicans have advantages that are strong but not outside the prospect of an upset — more than 5 percentage points yet fewer than 15 points — in seven more districts. Democrats have that sort of advantage in two districts.

The remaining six districts are close in voter registration counts between Republicans and Democrats, though Republicans have slight advantages in all of them:

— In Florida’s 15th Congressional District, essentially Florida’s new district, serving the Polk County area of the Interstate 4 corridor, Republicans have just 1,700 more voters than Democrats within an electorate of 472,000, amounting to a GOP advantage of just 0.4 percentage points.

That’s a much weaker advantage than the results of the past couple of General Elections would suggest, indicating the independent and minor party voters in CD 15 likely lean conservative.

Independent and minor party voters make up 31% of the CD 15 electorate.

There, former Republican Secretary of State Laurel Lee and Democrat Alan Cohn are battling for an open seat.

— In Florida’s 2nd Congressional District in the Panhandle, Republicans hold a 3,700 voter advantage, which is about 0.7% of the electorate.

That is a much tighter Republican edge than the past couple of General Elections would suggest. Former President Donald Trump won the precincts now gathered into that district by 11 percentage points in the 2020 election.

Independent and minor party voters make up just 20% of the CD 2 electorate.

Two incumbent congressional members are in a showdown there: Republican U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn and Democratic U.S. Rep. Al Lawson.

— In Florida’s 27th Congressional District in Miami, Republicans hold a 3,900-vote advantage, about 0.9% of the electorate.

That suggests more of a Republican advantage, compared with how voters there voted in the past couple of General Elections. Trump barely won the vote there in 2020.

Independent and minor party voters combine for 33% of the electorate, nearly even with Republicans and slightly greater than Democrats.

Republican U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is being challenged by Democratic state Sen. Annette Taddeo.

— In Florida’s 28th Congressional District in Miami, Republicans have 5,800 more registered voters, an advantage of about 1.3% of the total electorate.

That district has swung widely across the past two General Elections. Trump carried the area by 6% in 2020

CD 28 has more independent voters than either Republicans or Democrats. Independents make up 35% of the electorate.

Republican U.S. Rep. Carlos Giménez is being challenged by former Democratic state Rep. Robert Asencio.

— In Florida’s 4th Congressional District in the Jacksonville area, Republicans hold an advantage of about 12,500 votes, or about 2.3% of the electorate.

That spread is much tighter than the results of the past General Elections. Trump carried the area in 2020 by 6 points.

Just 23% of the CD 4 voters are registered as independents or to minor parties.

Republican state Sen. Aaron Bean faces Democrat LaShonda Holloway for the open seat there in the General Election.

— In Florida’s 7th Congressional District, Republicans hold a 25,000-vote advantage, about 4.4% of the electorate.

That is just slightly a smaller spread than Trump enjoyed in the region in the 2020 General Election.

Independent or minor voters make up 32% of the electorate, slightly more than Democrats.

Republican Cory Mills faces Karen Green for the open seat there.

Republicans have strong advantages in voter registration, between 5 and 15 points, in Florida’s 3rd, 11th, 13th, 16th, 18th, 21st and 26th Congressional Districts.

Democrats have strong advantages in voter registration in Florida’s 14th and 23rd Congressional Districts.

Republicans have nearly insurmountable advantages in voter registrations, more than 15 points, in Florida’s 1st, 6th, 8th, 12th, 17th and 19th Congressional Districts, and already have won Florida’s 5th Congressional District, which re-elected Republican U.S. Rep. John Rutherford in the Primary Election.

Democrats have nearly insurmountable advantages in voter registrations in Florida’s 9th, 10th, 20th, 22nd, 24th and 25th Congressional Districts.

Scott Powers

Scott Powers is an Orlando-based political journalist with 30+ years’ experience, mostly at newspapers such as the Orlando Sentinel and the Columbus Dispatch. He covers local, state and federal politics and space news across much of Central Florida. His career earned numerous journalism awards for stories ranging from the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster to presidential elections to misplaced nuclear waste. He and his wife Connie have three grown children. Besides them, he’s into mystery and suspense books and movies, rock, blues, basketball, baseball, writing unpublished novels, and being amused. Email him at [email protected]


10 comments

  • PeterH

    August 29, 2022 at 4:57 pm

    Today’s Republican Party needs to wake up! The Trumpistas are ruining their Party and American Democracy!

    The Democratic Party needs to maintain common sense policies with moderation and avoid extremism.

    Independent voters are today’s voice of reason and decide elections.

    Gallop has polled nationally asking a simple question of Party affiliation….. here are the results:

    Democrats 27%
    Republicans 27%
    Independents 43%

    In Florida there are a total of 14,256,184 registered voters. Of this amount 4,143,819 are unaffiliated independent voters, 5,157,343 are Republicans and 4,955,022 are Democrats.

    Independent voters are generally moderate in fiscal issues, liberal in social issues and for the most part college educated. Appealing to the middle wins elections. Independent voters decide elections.

    Vote DeSantis’s “do nothing” culture warriors out of office! Vote Republicans out of office.

    • Dan

      August 29, 2022 at 5:48 pm

      Meanwhile the Democrats are running to the far left adopting socialist and communist policies and ideology and you say nothing. You seem to think all those independents want a very massive big brother government.

      You are a joke, bro!

      • Viva

        September 4, 2022 at 4:17 am

        “Adopting socialist and communist

        I actually prefer French. The 18th century kind. Of politics when dealing with Republicans lol

  • John

    August 29, 2022 at 5:02 pm

    Here is what the Democrats, Charlie Crist and Val Demings stand for (on their websites.) Both opposes Voter ID, is soft on crime (supports early release, no bail, supported de-fund the police.) Crist & Demings marched with Black Lives Matter as they robbed, committed arson, beat citizens in the streets and stole whatever
    they could. Crist nor Demings said anything to condemn the violence. Both support convicts the right to vote from prison, gun control, weak on border security and opposed the wall. Both supports the new leftist class room curriculum for very young children indoctrination not education in critical race theory who is a racist, transgender, bisexuality, homosexuality, gender identity, teachers making the determination of what parents deserve to know about their children, school same sex restrooms. Both supports the green new deal, Biden’s war on oil, public funds for illegal aliens-including college, welfare for immigrants. Demings recently stated “Joe Biden is doing a great job.” Nuff said.

    *VOTE YES ON RON DESANTIS FOR GOVERNOR – MARCO RUBIO FOR SENATE- MATT GAETZ REPRESENTATIVE*

    • Charlie Crist

      August 29, 2022 at 5:07 pm

      ^ False information… every bit of it.
      Victim of oiled Fat Cammack face sit? Fat Cammack rug scrub? Fat Cammack head crush?

    • Ocean Joe

      August 29, 2022 at 5:48 pm

      All that stuff about sex in your comment and you want folks to vote for Matt Gaetz?
      You guys screwed the pooch in the primary. He’s going to be indicted, Nancy or even sandwich shop Kevin will run him out of the house, and maybe with any luck, the governor will appoint Mr. Lombardo pending a special election.

    • Trevor Morris

      September 5, 2022 at 12:23 am

      What? You sound crazy. I was at several BLM marches in DC. The only people beaten were some of the marchers who were beaten by US Park Police on orders of Donald Trump. The Park Police have admitted that they were wrong to obey Trump’s illegal orders to beat the protestors and paid out large settlements to those beaten. Otherwise, there was no violence and no robberies were reported. I guess like most Trump supporters you can just make shit up to suit your own racist narrative. I just read that after failed attempts to destroy democracy, honesty, decency, and America, children’s hospitals are the latest target of you folks in the DeSaster/Trump crowd.
      That seems about right for the level of you folk’s character. Whatever, the entire world knows you are a bold-faced liar now.

  • Matthew Lusk

    September 3, 2022 at 11:41 am

    Al Lawson said on the radio last night. “I’ve always supported a woman’s right to choose, it’s between her, her doctor, and the Lord. Al, I don’t think the Lord is a participant, DO YOU? Murdering a baby is a conspiracy between a woman, an abortionist, and satan.

    • Nicholas White

      September 5, 2022 at 1:36 am

      LOL, Matthew is clearly never getting laid again, which I admit does assume that he has before.

  • Edward Harrison

    September 5, 2022 at 12:38 am

    I live in Dunn’s District. I hate that after just finally getting a somewhat fair district a few years ago our Governor demanded new gerrymanders and his little dumb lapdogs in the legislature complied. I am however glad to have a decent candidate to vote for in Al Lawson. Rep Dunn has been a disaster. Four years ago we were hit by a cat 5 hurricane that destroyed much of Panama City. Rep Dunn was largely MIA in the aftermath. Most communities, even after far weaker storms, get a hurricane recovery bill within a few weeks. It took our area over a year to get a recovery bill and Dunn wasn’t even a sponsor. When it finally passed it was carried by Rep Bishop of GA and Rep Dunn didn’t even bother to stay in DC for the vote. The only bill that Dunn sponsored related to the hurricane was one to give some tax breaks to some area businesses and wealthy folks while we still had entire families living in tents with no access to drinkable water. For those reasons and because he believes in giving women bodily autonomy, this redneck white boy will be voting for Al Lawson…

Comments are closed.


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