Can a Democrat win Duval Property Appraiser outright on Tuesday?
Joyce Morgan throws her hat in the ring.

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A new poll suggests it’s possible.

Joyce Morgan, a Democrat facing two Republicans in the race for Duval County Property Appraiser, is not far from the majority support needed to win the race outright on Tuesday.

A St. Pete Polls survey conducted among 481 likely Jacksonville voters on March 18 and 19 found Morgan with more than 45% support, far ahead of Republicans Jason Fischer (22%) and Danny Becton (16%).

Those findings jibe with the most recent previous polling in the race, which found Morgan with 43% support. That poll, taken by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, showed Fischer with just 16% support and Becton with 13%.

The new poll shows 16% still undecided. Just a small share of that batch could push Morgan above 50%, giving her an automatic win Tuesday.

That comes despite some significant backing for Fischer, who is endorsed by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Morgan is a former television reporter and current City Council member who was first elected in 2015.

Unsurprisingly, Democrats are coalescing around Morgan, with 75% supporting her. But it’s crossover appeal that is largely driving Morgan’s lead. Only 8% of Democrats support Fischer and just 5% back Becton, while more than 14% of Republicans support Morgan. She also cleans up among independents, with 42% support to 16% for Fischer and 14% for Becton.

Morgan also leads among every race demographic, with particularly strong support among Black voters at 79%. She also leads among all genders and all but one age demographic, but even there, she’s tied with Fischer at 21.4% support among the 18-29 crowd.

Demographic breakdowns show major improvements for Morgan. In the UNF poll taken about three weeks ago, Morgan drew just 8% support from Republicans and her lead among White voters was narrow, at just 29%. Heading into Tuesday’s First Election, Morgan now commands 33% support.

A Morgan victory would be a flip for Democrats in Duval. Republican incumbent Jerry Holland won in a landslide four years ago against his Democratic challenger, Kurt Kraft, with 66% of the vote. Holland is not seeking re-election and will become the Duval County Supervisor of Elections office after being elected without opposition.

If Morgan or any other candidate fails to get more than 50% of the vote Tuesday, a runoff election will be held in May.

Peter Schorsch

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises Media and is the publisher of, INFLUENCE Magazine, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Previous to his publishing efforts, Peter was a political consultant to dozens of congressional and state campaigns, as well as several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella. Follow Peter on Twitter @PeterSchorschFL.

One comment

  • ZW

    March 20, 2023 at 6:03 pm

    Had Republicans been able to find someone other than a know it all jerk and a job hopping sleaze to run, this story never would have been written.

Comments are closed.


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