Jacob Ogles
Even with inflation making consumers choose purchases carefully, Florida retailers expect growth in sales this year.
A new forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts retail sales in 2023 to grow somewhere between 4% and 6%. That would put national retail sales for the year as high as $5.23 trillion — the first time in history national retail sales surpassed $5 trillion.
The projection still expects less growth than in 2022, when sales jumped 7% and reached a record high of $4.9 trillion.
“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
“While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels. Retailers are prepared to serve consumers in the current economic environment by offering a range of products at affordable prices with great shopping experiences.”
While the national organization did not publish state-by-state projections on which states will benefit the most, Florida retailers anticipate a boon.
The Florida Retail Federation (FRF) told its membership a good share of the growth should occur in the Sunshine State.
“Retailers continue to find ways to help Floridians get more out of their hard-earned money,” said FRF President and CEO Scott Shalley.
“Many shoppers are taking advantage of retail sales and promotions due to the lingering impacts of inflation. Floridians can help support their communities and neighbors by shopping at local retailers. Our local stores are committed to providing Florida families with the best value possible.”
But the report didn’t bring only good news. It noted the growth in gross domestic product nationally was only up 1%, compared to a 2.1% increase in 2022. That’s attributed to inflation.
Inflation on goods and services was up 3% to 3.5% every quarter in 2022. But the pressure should trend downward after this year.
Labor market shortages could also start to impact the overall economy, and projections show national unemployment could jump to 4% before the year is out. It was at 3.6% in March nationwide. In Florida, the unemployment rate was only 2.6% in March and has stayed consistently lower than the national jobless rate for years.
As the Federal Reserve looks to tamp down inflation, financial regulations could impact banks and markets.
“While it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry turmoil, consumer spending is looking quite good for the first quarter of 2023,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “While we expect consumers to maintain spending, a softer and likely uneven pace is projected for the balance of the year.”
Sales also aren’t growing in all forms of retail. Online transactions and non-store sales are projected to jump this year by 10% to 12%, rising to as much as $1.43 trillion nationwide. Still, about 70% of purchases made by consumers are at brick-and-mortar stores. Analysts with the national federation say that shows the role of stores and showrooms remains evolving but essential.
