Ron DeSantis’ odds of getting GOP nomination slump to near 15%

Image via AP

Betting odds for Ron DeSantis’ bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination have gone south.

On the Smarkets online betting exchange platform, bettors say the Florida Governor has just over a 15% chance of getting the nomination. He fell below that 15% mark on July 4.

At the time of publication, DeSantis stands at just 15.62%, well behind former President Donald Trump.

Trump was over 70% on Independence Day, though he has since fallen to just 69.44%. At that point, DeSantis was at 14.72%.

The nearly 54-point lead is a new development. On July 3, DeSantis was above 21% and Trump was marginally above 67%.

Other names are even more prohibitive long shots than DeSantis.

Former United Nations envoy Nikki Haley is given just a 3.33% chance of winning the nomination by Smarkets bettors.

U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina is at 2.5%, while former Vice President Mike Pence is at 2.33%.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is another underdog, given a 1.82% chance of winning at this writing.

For those with even more appetites for risk, non-candidates Marco Rubio and Rick Scott also register, with 0.34% and 0.1%, respectively, as of this writing. Meanwhile, declared candidate Francis Suarez doesn’t register at all.

DeSantis led Trump as recently as January 18, 40.32% to 34.72%. By April, however, Trump doubled up DeSantis in this market, and the former President’s momentum continues unabated.

The Race to the White House polling average continues to show a lopsided race, with Trump at 53% and DeSantis at 21%. Pence is at 6%, Vivek Ramaswamy is at 4%, and Haley is at 3% in that metric.

The Governor’s supporters have begun to manage expectations, a worrying sign for those who want to see DeSantis have a chance to export the Florida model nationwide.

Never Back Down spox Steve Cortes has admitted Trump is the “front-runner” and DeSantis is “way behind” in a recent Twitter Space, in which he also said DeSantis would face challenges against Trump on a debate stage.