Social media analysis shows swing voters prefer Ron DeSantis over Joe Biden, Donald Trump

Ron DeSantis 5.17.23 AP PHOTO (2)
And his reputation among that critical group has been on the rise this month.

An analysis of online chatter shows that regardless of GOP Primary polling, Republican Ron DeSantis holds growing appeal for swing voters.

Impact Social has conducted a long-term analysis of online and social media communications for swing voters. It found that as of mid-July, DeSantis still scores better on its swing voter sentiment tracker than former President Donald Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, or incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden.

Between July 5 and 19, DeSantis’ score on the tracker went from a -22 to a -12. Meanwhile, Biden’s score went from -22 to just -20 over the same period. Meanwhile, Trump’s score on the same tracking dropped from -38 to -40.

What’s behind the bump for DeSantis? Impact Social analysts say it’s all about electability.

“It appears that policies or pronouncements — such as his ‘war on woke’ or his CNN interview — are of secondary interest at present,” Impact Social analysts write. “What has changed is the number of right-leaning independents expressing grave concern that Trump cannot beat Biden. For them, this is a simple, pragmatic realization, if Trump wins the GOP nomination, Biden gets re-elected.”

Importantly, Impact Social has conducted the analysis for Ready For Ron, a draft movement launched to urge DeSantis into the presidential race. With DeSantis in the race, the organization is rebranding as Ready to Win.

But the tracking of activity dates to June of last year. Over that period, DeSantis has consistently outperformed Trump regarding the sentiments of swing voters online. For most of that period, he also surpassed Biden, though not always. The lowest DeSantis ever scored was -22 in early June, but he and Biden had identical scores.

It also came amid a barrage of bad press about DeSantis consistently polling poorly against Trump among GOP Primary voters but spending intensely.

But DeSantis is the only one of the three candidates who Impact Social published data on who has ever tallied a positive score on the voter sentiment tracker. The came on Nov. 9, right after DeSantis won re-election as Florida’s Governor by a 19-percentage-point landslide. Of note, Biden also scored his highest sentiment score as Democrats defied historical trends in the Midterms to expand a Senate majority and limit House losses. Still, even then, the incumbent had a -5 score.

According to the analysis, Trump, a consistent leader in Primary polls, has never shown positive traction with swing voters. His zenith on the tracker, a -23 in August last year, remains lower than DeSantis’ or Biden’s nadir. He has since been indicted in New York and federal court, each time seeing a boost in GOP Primary polling as base voters rallied around him but suffering in the eyes of swing voters, according to the analysis.

According to the tracking, swing voters have expressed a distaste for Trump’s polarizing nature. A sample post in the analysis voiced concerns: “Trump can NOT win the General Election. It’s NOT about dividing the party. It’s about winning the General Election.”

“This 40K swing voter tracker has, for the last 13 months, shown Trump’s complete inability to connect with them. Such is their low opinion of him that his net sentiment was barely impacted by either indictment — their contempt already baked in,” Impact Social analysts wrote. “So, the question from right-leaning independents to their GOP counterparts is simple, are we going for DeSantis, or are we happy to see the Democrats take the White House?”

Ready To Win leaders said the data gave them confidence DeSantis can still make the case he should be the Republican nominee.

Traditional polling is effectively nonsense. It asks the wrong questions of the wrong, tiny subset of people to only get answers from those who desperately want to convince you (and themselves) of their outsider viewpoints, and then applies magical math to try and fix the obviously wrong results. The polling is almost always wrong; it has been wrong in every election over the past eight years, and we’d be crazy to believe it again,” said Dan Backer, legal counsel for Ready to Win.

“Anti-polling is honest, reliable and true. And it confirms what people already know: Donald Trump can’t beat Joe Biden. Only Ron DeSantis can, and only he can win the primary to do it. I’m not anti-Trump, after voting for him in 2016 and 2020, but he lost—badly—the last time around. Every single shred of reputable data is crystal clear: Swing voters have utterly abandoned Trump, and he cannot win a general election. Only DeSantis can.”

Impact Social DeSantis Trump Swing Voters Jul 20 by Jacob Ogles on Scribd

 

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


9 comments

  • My Take

    July 24, 2023 at 9:51 pm

    Presumably most anti-DeSantis èfforts fròm his competitors or other detractors (up until the AP disgrace) have been aimed at the degenerate dungheap of GOP primary voters. If he is nominated it will bè real Americans who will be thè target audience. The arguments and sorting should change a lot.

  • Earl Pitts "The Ronalds Unofficial Campaign Manager" American

    July 24, 2023 at 10:08 pm

    Good evening America,
    Told ya so!
    Social Media Swing Voters to the rescue!!!
    “The Ronald” in The White House!!!
    “Casey pack up the family we’re going to Washington”.
    Mr. Desantis Goes To Washington!!!
    Dont worry Dook 4 Brains Lefty’s “The Ronald” will be nice to you fragile minded pea brains and wont make you scream at the sky for the next 8 years. Y’all gonna be OK.
    Thank you America,
    Earl Pitts American

    • Earl Pitts "The Ronalds Unofficial Campaign Manager" American

      July 24, 2023 at 10:19 pm

      BTW America,
      I, Earl Pitts American, have been waiting untill we were sure to win befor I asked The Ronald for my reward to honor all the hard work I have done to put The Ronald in The White House – and he said yes!!!!!
      I, Earl Pitts American, am going to be The USA’s first ever Ambasador To Disney!!!!
      Thank you for your support America,
      Earl Pitts Amercan

      • JD

        July 25, 2023 at 9:39 am

        Don’t forget Pitts the Shitts is all in for The Ronald “McDonald” clown posse. Tells you something of his mental prowess and character.

  • Suze

    July 24, 2023 at 11:48 pm

    They clearly are in favor of more fascism with trump or DeathSantis. Educate these wing nuts

    • My Take

      July 25, 2023 at 2:02 am

      Every vote for Trump or DeSSantos shows a failure in civics education in our schools (or in our naturalization tests).

  • tom palmer

    July 25, 2023 at 6:55 am

    swing voters are not the people who are eligible to vote in GOP primaries

    • Dont Say FLA

      July 25, 2023 at 7:28 am

      That depends on their state’s rules. Some states you show up, pick whichever ticket you want for today’s primary, and you vote. Folks in solid states where this ability exists will frequently use it to pick the least crazy candidate from the party that’s going to win. Others will pick the craziest candidate, figuring on them losing. Obviously the latter plan of action does not work out sometimes.

  • Dont Say FLA

    July 25, 2023 at 7:30 am

    Only certain folks respond to polls and questionnaires and such on social media. Those are folks who don’t mind being data-mined, and/or are troll accounts intended to mine the data miners. Pay no more attention to social media polls of the political variety than you would social media polls about which spirit animal you are or what your rapper name would be, etc etc

Comments are closed.


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