Internal poll says Iowa is a ‘two-man race’ between Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump

DeSantis NBD Iowa
'Trump and DeSantis are the only two candidates with significant support — nobody else eclipses 6%.'

The Republican race in Iowa is coming down to the former President and the Florida Governor.

That’s the take of a Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted Sept. 5-6.

Public Opinion Strategies, an internal pollster for Ron DeSantis, sees Iowa as a “two-man race” between the Governor and Donald Trump, despite the numbers showing Trump leading DeSantis 45% to 22%.

“Moving into September, Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump’s positives are now identical. Vivek Ramaswamy’s image has taken on water since the first debate,” the one page memo accompanying the results reads.

Both Trump and DeSantis are at 73% approval among the 400 GOP caucus participants contacted by phone. Indeed, Ramaswamy is at just 54% according to this poll, well behind Trump, DeSantis, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, who is at 69%, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s 62%.

“This is a two-man race in Iowa. Now that the dust has settled after the first debate, Trump and DeSantis are the only two candidates with significant support — nobody else eclipses 6%. DeSantis saw a significant increase in his ballot standing since before the debate which has stabilized. Meanwhile, Haley, Ramaswamy and Scott have seen a decline in support,” the memo adds.

Beyond those metrics, the pollster argues the former President’s “floor” is collapsing, with “just 22% of voters say they are ‘only considering Trump’ compared to 26% after the first presidential debate. Nearly half (48%) of voters say they are ‘considering Trump and other candidates’ and another 29% say they are ‘not considering Trump.’”

The Governor has projected confidence regarding Iowa, of course, saying he is a “clear second under any metric,” an analysis seemingly rooted in this data.

“Everybody else is in single digits,” DeSantis said Wednesday on the Rubin Report. “I wouldn’t trade places with anyone in Iowa right now.”

The Governor made the case that he’s better positioned at this point in the race than previous Iowa caucus winners.

“We’ve actually had a huge amount of success in Iowa. I mean, if you look back at previous election cycles and find where the Iowa caucus winner was in the summer, people like Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum, they were polling at like 5 or 6%,” DeSantis related.

Santorum and Cruz did win Iowa, in 2012 and 2016 respectively, though both wins had caveats. Santorum won by the slimmest of margins in a race that had been seen effectively as a draw in 2012. In 2016, Trump deemed Cruz’s victory to be a fraud.

The Iowa result catapulted neither Santorum nor Cruz to the nomination, of course.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


  • SteveHC

    September 8, 2023 at 10:06 am

    In order for there to be a “two-man race” there must first be two *men* present and I’m quite certain that is not the case therein… unless, of course, these two “Karens” have chosen one or more non-binary pronouns for their individual selves… (Who knows? Stranger things *have* occurred since 1/20/2017… 😉

    • Earl Pitts "The Big Voice On The Right" American

      September 11, 2023 at 1:59 pm

      Thank you Steve HC,
      This is polling that is less of the “leftist narative” which is all a pack of stinking lies falsely leading gulliable Dook 4 Brains Lefty’s, like Steve HC, to wrongly think (in their easly manipulated dook brains) that its going to be Biden vs Trump and Biden by hook or by crook will prevail.
      As I, Earl Pitts American, already advised our Great Nation, the polling, will slowley…ever so slowley…begin to show the true polling results of America’s Beloved Govornor’s impending “Grand Slam” of:
      1.) A total and compleat Trump Smack-Down.
      Followed by:
      2.) A total and complet Biden Smack-Down.
      These are the facts, Steve HC, and there is no disputeing the true words of me, Earl Pitts American.

  • Nate Silberton

    September 8, 2023 at 11:24 am

    DeSantis trails by more (23%) than he registers support (22%).
    Internal polls released = PR play.

  • PeterH

    September 8, 2023 at 12:42 pm

    Neither candidate will be president!

    Republicans are America’s biggest problem!

    Vote all Republicans out of office.

  • My Take

    September 8, 2023 at 1:49 pm

    The GOP is now officially a national cessool.
    Were all the you-know-what goes, accumulates, and ŕeeks.

  • My Take

    September 8, 2023 at 1:51 pm


  • Joe

    September 8, 2023 at 4:01 pm

    Internal polls commissioned by political campaigns are less than meaningless — they’re propaganda.

    • Joe

      September 8, 2023 at 4:02 pm

      PS the Iowa caucuses are also meaningless.

  • Tim

    September 9, 2023 at 1:11 am

    DeSantis is the only candidate who has shown he will aggressively clean up Corporate America of woke companies. He can pass an executive order banning Federal contracts with hundreds of woke companies and we can put them and their suppliers out of business. Those who are out of a job can work for non-woke companies that will flourish just like Bud Light competitors are now. California governor Newsom did the same thing and Democrats applauded. He banned contracts with Walgreens because the company would not distribute abortion medication. DeSantis can do the same except on a much larger scale. It is our one chance to clean up Corporate America once and for all.

    • Michael K

      September 9, 2023 at 9:13 am

      Please tell me where, in the US Constitution, it says that “woke” (whatever that means) is something to be destroyed by a US president?

    • My Take

      September 9, 2023 at 8:55 pm

      My best guess is too many cheeseburgers from cattle from Texas rangeland infested with locoweed.
      Ergot in the bun wheat is also possible.

      • My Take

        September 9, 2023 at 8:58 pm

        But given the politics, maybe just plain old crystal meth.

  • Sonja Fitch

    September 9, 2023 at 4:21 am

    TWO MAN race says it all . Racist and sexist and biased by a persons citizenship in Florida and the United States these men are looooosers!!!!

  • Earl Pitts "The Big Voice On The Right" American

    September 11, 2023 at 2:18 pm

    Good afrernoon Nate,
    I, Earl Pitts American, know how easy it is for the left to hijack a simpleton’s brain so I understand your situation
    Nate I, Earl Pitts American, strongly suggest you read my reply to the mis-guided Steve HC above. You are not yet too far gone down the slippery slope of Dook 4 Brains Leftism yet to the point that I, and only I, can still rescue you Nate. Just read my knowledge drop on Steve HC above 37 times (or until you have committed my great knowledge and wisdom to your memory).
    Glad to help save you from the pure H€LL and embarrasment of Dook 4 Brains Leftism my man Nate.
    Now Nate you should be able to project the confidence of a real man, which will get you a real girlfriend, along with the kissing and scrumpy time which a real man deserves.
    Enjoy Nate, just one catch my man, you name your first Son Earl.
    Earl Silberton ….. Oh Yeah!!!!!!!!

    Thanks Nate,

Comments are closed.


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