Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Floridians were lukewarm on the economy last month, and their opinion didn’t improve much in October, according to new data from the University of Florida.
The latest consumer sentiment measure clocks in at 66.2, a one-tenth of a point drop compared to September despite generally positive economic indicators. Nationally, consumer sentiment fell 4.1 points month-over-month.
“Inflation has fallen over the past year, the labor market has shown surprising resilience, and continued economic growth has consistently outperformed expectations. In fact, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023, driven by increased consumer spending and inventory investment,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
“Yet, consumer sentiment among Floridians has remained persistently low, making 2023 poised to be the third-lowest year in terms of consumer sentiment since records have been available.”
The top-line consumer sentiment figure is made up of five components, two based on current perceptions of the economy and three based on future economic expectations.
According to UF, current conditions are driving Floridians’ pessimism. Views of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago fell from 56 to 53.7. These sentiments were shared by Floridians across all socioeconomic and demographic groups, except for people who make $50,000 a year or more. Opinions on whether now is a good time to purchase a major household item, such an appliance, were flat at 56.2.
“Pessimism among Floridians regarding their current financial situation compared with a year ago and their expectations about the national economy over the next year indicates that they may be more cautious in their spending habits in the months ahead. However, the continued resilience in the labor market and consumer spending provides a positive signal for retailers as they approach the holiday shopping season,” Sandoval said
Future expectations were a mixed bag. More Floridians say they’re optimistic about their personal finances a year from now — that column ticked up 3.6 points to 83.6, and the upward trajectory cut across all demographics which the UF memo described as “remarkable.”
Floridians weren’t as bullish on the U.S. economy in the near term, however, with the one-year outlook falling from 67.2 to 64.5. Still, the five-year outlook rose by a point to 73.1.
The dip in the one-year outlook was shared by all Floridians except those who make more than $50,000 a year. The five-year optimism carried across all demographics except those over 60, who reported slightly more pessimistic views.
The UF report noted that while inflation didn’t continue to fall last month, the annual rate of 3.7% is far lower than a year ago. Other positives: Florida boasts a 2.8% unemployment rate — No. 14 among all states — and labor force participation stands at 59.8%, a 0.7% increase since January.
“Looking ahead, as overall consumer sentiment has remained low throughout the year without gaining any significant ground, we anticipate that sentiment will likely continue to stay depressed for the rest of the year,” Sandoval said.
The UF survey was conducted from Sept. 1 through Oct. 29. It collected responses from 224 Floridians via cellphone and 301 Floridians who participated in an online panel, a total of 525 individuals,
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is 2, and the highest is 150.
Evening Reads
—“How Nikki Haley is overtaking Ron DeSantis as the alternative to Donald Trump for GOP voters” via Mitch Perry of the Florida Phoenix
—”The case for DeSantis over Haley as the alternative to Trump” via Dan McLaughlin of National Review
—”3 expert shoemakers say DeSantis is probably wearing height boosters” via Derek Guy of POLITICO
—”Why it doesn’t matter that Mike Pence dropped out of the GOP Primary” via Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight
—“Disney district mess: Employees flee. No-bid contract stinks” via Scott Maxwell of the Orlando Sentinel
—”Could Israel dump Benjamin Netanyahu in the middle of a war?” via Zack Beauchamp of Vox
—”Belief in magic drives politics more than you think” via Brian Klaas of The Atlantic
—”How did Pinellas Commissioner Chris Latvala get Titus O’Neil’s underwear?” via Paul Guzzo of the Tampa Bay Times
Quote of the Day
“You are running away from Gingles because you know you can’t establish that.”
— Appellate Judge Brad Thomas, pushing back on plaintiff’s arguments against the state’s congressional map.
Put It on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
With the 1st District Court of Appeal seemingly receptive to a congressional map with 20 GOP districts, Gov. Ron DeSantis gets a 20/20.
However, the Governor is barred from Trick-or-Treat-tinis unless he quits sugar shaming and hands out good candy.
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz returned to a hero’s welcome in CD 1. Assuming his constituents haven’t already taken care of it, order him a Welcome Home.
A Chandon Granite is the perfect drink to wish Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo safe travels to the Granite State. An Odd McIntyre would also work if you want to be overly specific.
If new polling is any indication, Rep. Randy Fine will need to fight hard to win in Senate District 19. Help him out with a round of Bare Knuckle Boxers.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
10:30 p.m. — Orlando Magic @ Los Angeles Clippers
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
