Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Five months out from Election Day, the 2024 presidential race is too close to call in three key swing states.
According to new polling from FAU’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied at 45%-45% in Michigan. Trump leads 47%-45% in Pennsylvania, and Biden has a 40%-38% edge in Wisconsin.
FAU’s May 30-31 poll has a 3% margin of error, so Biden’s edge in Wisconsin and Trump’s in Pennsylvania are far from concrete.
“Neither side has a meaningful advantage in any of the three states at this time,” said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., an associate Professor of Political Science at FAU.
Notably, all three states went for Biden in the 2020 election, and each was decided by fewer than three percentage points — Wisconsin was the closest, with Biden eking out a win by just 0.63%. Another caveat: FAU’s sample was not comprised of expressly likely voters, just adults living in the three states.
They were worth a combined 46 points in the Electoral College four years ago but will be worth 44 this year since Michigan and Pennsylvania lost a vote following the 2020 Census. Since Biden won in 2020 with 306 electoral votes, these three states were pivotal to his victory. As of June, it seems they could be a deciding factor in the 2024 election as well.
Respondents were clear about what they want the candidates to focus on: The economy.
Pocketbook issues were the No. 1 concern overall, and that held true broken down by party as well. The No. 2 issue among Republicans was immigration, while Democrats’ secondary priority was abortion rights. However, neither No. 2 had much traction across the aisle.
“These battleground states continue to prioritize economic concerns over social issues like immigration and abortion,” said Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., an assistant Professor of Political Science at FAU. “While the economy is the top matter for voters across party lines, we see a stark split on the second-tier priorities.”
As for the elephant in the room, a sizable plurality (49%) of voters said they believe Trump is guilty of criminal wrongdoing following his state-level conviction in New York. That was also the majority opinion among several key demographics — Black adults registered at 69%, Hispanic adults at 59% and White adults with college degrees at 50%.
The only demo that believes the convictions are bunk are White adults without a college degree, although that view was only held by a plurality as well, with 40% of those voters on the guilty side of the fence.
Evening Reads
—”How 1980s yuppies gave us Donald Trump” via Tom McGrath of POLITICO Magazine
—“The 27 must-see lines from Joe Biden’s TIME magazine interview” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—”Trump’s big new megaphone” via Caroline Mimbs Nyce of The Atlantic
—“Multiple Trump witnesses have received significant financial benefits from his businesses, campaign” via Robert Faturechi, Justin Elliott and Alex Mierjeski of ProPublica
—”The most remarkable thing about Biden’s cease-fire speech” via Fred Kaplan of Slate
—”What Ukraine has lost, building by building and block by block” via Marco Hernandez, Jeffrey Gettleman, Finbarr O’Reilly and Tim Wallace of The New York Times
—”It’s not just climate change: Two little-known reasons why the Atlantic is so darn hot” via Bill Kearney of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
—”Tom Leek touts Ron DeSantis endorsement in new TV spot” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
—”DeSantis says James Buchanan deserves another term in HD 74” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
—”Miami-Dade prosecutors’ ‘deal with the devil’ threatens to topple murder convictions” via Brittany Wallman and Sarah Blaskey of the Miami Herald
—”The contested legacy of Jackie Robinson” via Jerry Brewer of The Washington Post
—”Has Taylor Swift’s ‘Florida!!!’ boosted tourism? We asked Destin.” via Gabrielle Calise of the Tampa Bay Times
—”They thought top artists were giving them their big break. But was it all a ‘menu of bullshit?’” via Cheyenne Roundtree of Rolling Stone
Quote of the Day
“I don’t think that the statewide races are competitive at all.”
— Gov. Ron DeSantis, on Florida becoming a “solid Republican state.”
Put It on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Trump’s pre-endorsement makes it unsurprising, but Sen. Joe Gruters is officially running to succeed term-limited Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis. The election isn’t until 2026, but Joe’s Cash Money is such a fitting cocktail name we couldn’t wait two years to share it.
Rep. Tom Leek already had Senate Republicans and local Sheriffs backing his Senate bid. Now, he’s on TV touting an endorsement from Gov. Ron DeSantis. Sounds like he’s due for a Green Light.
It’s still up in the air, but if The Swamp becomes the (temporary) home stadium for the Jags in 2027, the crews at UF and Visit Gainesville will take a round of Gator Bombs.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Struggling Rays, Marlins open series
The two Florida major league baseball teams open a series against one another in Miami this evening as the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Marlins (6:40 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Florida).
Both teams need to get their seasons turned around.
The Rays (29-31) are half a game ahead of the cellar-dwelling Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East standings. Tampa Bay’s offense has been led by third baseman Isaac Paredes who is enjoying a career year. Paredes leads the Rays with 10 home runs and an OPS of .871. If he continues on that pace, it will be his most productive major league season.
Miami (21-39) holds the worst record in the National League. Only the Chicago White Sox have a lower winning percentage in Major League Baseball. The Marlins have lost 14 of their last 25 games dating back to early May and were shutout in their last two games against the Texas Rangers.
Both teams are struggling to hit for power. Only the White Sox have a lower OPS and scored fewer runs as a team than Miami. And only the White Sox have hit fewer home runs than the Rays and Marlins.
Tampa Bay is scheduled to send Ryan Pepiot (3-2, 3.88 ERA) to the mound in the series opener. Jesús Luzardo (2-4, 4.18) is scheduled to start for the Marlins.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
