Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 6.23.24

We made a note earlier this month when the Qualifying Week ended, acknowledging that the fields for local and state races were finally set.

Turns out that wasn’t quite the case, thanks to some careless errors by a few candidates.

First a bounced check from Miami-Dade Commission candidate Ian Anthony Medina allowed incumbent Commissioner René Garcia to coast to another term. It goes without saying that this isn’t really the type of mistake you should be making when trying to run a serious campaign. But OK, screw-ups happen.

What’s wild is that the Miami-Dade Elections Office gave him until June 24 to fix the error and pay the mere $360 he owed to qualify. Medina failed to do so, giving Garcia a free ride to a second term.

Over in Citrus County, Jesse Rumson forgot to check a box asking whether he had any pending campaign fines over $250.

The goof happened after Rumson made another error by signing his candidate oath without a notary present. That original form did have the box relating to campaign fines checked.

But Rumson was forced to fill out another version to ensure it complied with the notary rule. There, he made a second mistake, and he was notified Tuesday that he wouldn’t be on the ballot.

Oof.

Rumson, by the way, is also known as the “sedition panda” after he was arrested during the Jan. 6 riot with a panda mask on. It’s truly shocking that a guy like that made poor decisions while trying to qualify for this race.

Add to that previous reports that a House candidate got kicked off the ballot for failing to sign one line on a form, and these are lessons demonstrating the importance of having professionals around you to help with all the small things. If you want to serve your community, you should at least get the basics straight first.

Now, it’s on to our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Stanley Campbell. Campbell is running to be the Democratic nominee in this year’s U.S. Senate race, and most of the discussion around the race has described former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell as the most likely person to win the Democratic Primary.

But that’s not to say her win is a foregone conclusion, or that Campbell isn’t trying to run a competitive race. Case in point: Campbell picked up a big endorsement his week from the Florida AFL-CIO.

“The endorsement will be a surprise for folks to read publicly; however, it’s important to know that Stanley Campbell has been traveling around the state, meeting with different labor and community organizations for quite some time now,” Rich Templin, director of politics and policy for the AFL-CIO Florida, told the Florida Phoenix.

“His candidate questionnaire required of all the candidates seeking endorsement was beyond impressive. And in our interview, he demonstrated an understanding of the issues that we’re facing in Washington, D.C. Just a lot of really in-depth knowledge on what the problems are and some really innovative ideas on how to solve them.”

That’s a ringing endorsement for the candidate, who is looking to top the Democratic Party’s preferred candidate in Mucarsel-Powell for the chance to take on incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott in the General Election.

Mucarsel-Powell has courted most institutional support, including an endorsement from President Joe Biden. She has also raised nearly $7.3 million as of the end of March. Campbell has added more than $1 million, but the vast majority of that came through a candidate loan.

Nevertheless, if he’s willing to spend that cash, that’s not an insignificant amount to mount an upset bid. Rod Joseph and Brian Rush are also running in the Democratic contest, but they have each raised less than $80,000 and likely won’t be serious contenders to win this contest.

Campbell can be if he continues courting significant support from groups like the Florida AFL-CIO. He’s down against Mucarsel-Powell when it comes to cash and endorsements overall, but he’s not out until the votes are cast.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Jewish Floridians. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a pair of notable laws this week aiming to protect the state’s Jewish residents.

One does so directly in permitting lawmakers to turn funding for private Jewish day schools into a recurring item in the state’s annual budget.

The legislation itself doesn’t set in stone any financial commitment, but allowing this funding to become recurring in the future will enable a more consistent funding stream to protect Jewish students in an era where antisemitism has been on the rise.

That brings us to the second piece of legislation, which aims to define “antisemitism” in state law, based on language from the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance.

Some raised First Amendment concerns with the move. But the language explicitly says the law “may not be construed to diminish or infringe upon any right protected under the First Amendment … or to conflict with federal or state antidiscrimination laws.” It also exempts policy criticism of Israel similar to that of any other foreign nation. That law will go into effect Monday.

Hopefully, these measures can help ensure Jewish Floridians feel safe in this state, like all Floridians should.

The biggest winner: Florida sports. The Florida Panthers are Stanley Cup champions and the Jacksonville Jaguars have an agreement for stadium upgrades in place. What a week to be a Florida sports fan.

It was a wild ride for the Panthers after winning the first three games of the finals. They then lost the next three to the Edmonton Oilers, prompting a Game 7 that threatened to put the Panthers in the pantheon of all-time chokers in sports history.

Thankfully, they pulled out a victory at home, sending the Stanley Cup to South Florida.

Days later, the Jacksonville City Council approved $775 million in stadium renovations and another $56 million for other community benefits via a 14-1 vote.

Time will tell whether this is a good investment for the city.  Some research has shown these stadiums aren’t the economic boons that teams make them out to be. But that will be a debate for later on. For now, fans in Jacksonville should be assuaged that their team won’t be relocating anytime soon.

Now, with basketball and hockey seasons wrapped, all eyes will turn toward the Tampa Bay Rays and the Miami Marlins.

Actually, forget we said that. Let’s end on a high note and just focus on the Jags and Cats.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. News broke this week that the House Ethics Committee is growing its probe into whether the Congresswoman misused funds.

The investigation was launched months ago, looking into whether she violated campaign finance laws, flouted House disclosure rules and accepted official work from someone not working for her congressional office. Now, that investigation is growing.

An announcement with updated information says the committee will look at whether she “violated the Code of Official Conduct or any law, rule, regulation, or other standard of conduct applicable to the performance of her duties or the discharge of her responsibilities, with respect to allegations that Representative Cherfilus-McCormick: (1) engaged in improper conduct in connection with community project funding requests; (2) misused official funds for campaign purposes; and/or (3) violated campaign finance laws and regulations in connection with her 2024 re-election campaign.”

Her team pointed out that any change in scope doesn’t confirm any wrongdoing, and that Cherfilus-McCormick planned to cooperate with the probe.

“The Congresswoman continues to take this matter very seriously and intends to cooperate with the House Ethics Committee and its investigative subcommittee to address the allegations that have been raised,” read a statement provided by Clara Bernice, Communications Director for Cherfilus-McCormick’s House Office.

It’s true that an accusation doesn’t equal any wrongdoing, and maybe this matter will be cleared up going forward.

But if that’s the hope of Team Cherfilus-McCormick, it’s certainly moving in the wrong direction this week given the expansion. And Cherfilus-McCormick has already dealt with questions about how she amassed such a significant sum to fund her original Special Election win that sent her to Congress.

The good news for Cherfilus-McCormick: This probe is in no danger of spoiling her campaign this cycle, as she has none. Cherfilus-McCormick won re-election to the seat in Florida’s 20th Congressional District unopposed

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Carolina Amesty. Speaking of investigations, the Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE) is reportedly looking into Amesty and Central Christian University, which was founded by her father.

We’ve spotlighted the series of questions swirling around Amesty dating back to last year, much of it stemming from excellent reporting from the Orlando Sentinel.

The Sentinel’s latest report secured confirmation from FDLE that an investigation into Amesty and the school is ongoing, but much of the details about that investigation are still under wraps.

But she is already facing a separate state probe into allegations she notarized a document signed by educator Robert Shaffer, which he said he never signed, as part of an effort to promote the university’s staff.

It’s possible that the FDLE deals with similar issues. Sentinel reporting has also raised questions about Central Christian University listing five people on faculty to help boost the university’s appeal — except that those five did not work at Central Christian University.

Amesty, for her part, says Shaffer did sign the document and submitted testimony from others that Shaffer had become forgetful over the years.

But we noted when the first state investigation arose that it wouldn’t lead to any criminal charges. That’s not the case with the FDLE’s probe, meaning this problem just got a lot more serious for the sitting House member.

The biggest loser: Florida Democrats. In an era where political parties serve as little more than vehicles to spin on behalf of their interests and stakeholders rather than being honest brokers with the American people, this must have been a tough week for the Florida Democratic Party (FDP).

First, a moment of candor from the Biden campaign saw Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon give a clear-cut “no” when asked whether Florida was a battleground state for this year’s Presidential Election. That was followed by a debate performance by Biden Thursday night in which he consistently stumbled over himself and failed to effectively challenge the most openly flawed presidential candidate in modern history.

How do you spin that?

Well, they’re trying. First, by getting Biden team members and other Democrats to refute what O’Malley Dillon said and insist that Florida actually is in play, an effort to do damage control and not tank the prospects of down-ballot Democrats this Fall.

And following the debate, FDP Chair Nikki Fried took the route of completely ignoring questions about Biden’s competence, instead attempting to pivot to predetermined talking points while the party continues cheerleading in an effort to will Biden to victory.

But the reality is that this party now has to navigate Team Biden writing off the state (walk-backs notwithstanding) and simultaneously wondering whether his presence is going to be a net positive given his performance Thursday night.

It was always a tough prospect to put Florida in play just one cycle after Republicans won statewide by 20 points. This week just made it nearly impossible.