Kamala Harris eclipses Joe Biden on prominent political prediction market

BIDEN HARRIS ASSOCIATED PRESS
Is the money smart when it comes to intrigue on the Democratic side? Time will tell. But it is moving in one direction.

People wagering on the outcome of this year’s Presidential Election. are sensing a changing of the guard atop the Democratic Party.

That’s one takeaway from the surge of investor action toward Vice President Kamala Harris at the expense of President Joe Biden on the PredictIt platform.

As of Wednesday morning, the California Democrat’s odds, per investors, are better than the incumbent President when it comes to being the party’s presidential nominee.

A Harris “Yes” share is priced at $0.39, while a Biden “Yes” is a $0.38 investment.

Other names are further back, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose “Yes” shares are valued at $0.10, Michelle Obama ($0.09) and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer ($0.08).

Just 24 hours ago, Biden was valued at $0.66 while Harris was at $0.18. The swift movement suggests that recent developments in the groundswell of post-debate gripes about the President’s mental acuity are driving the action, coupled with the reality that Harris would singularly benefit from the Biden-Harris campaign’s war chest of $240 million cash on hand.

Despite the momentum for Harris, who has been considered to be an “impeachment insurance” policy for Biden by Republicans such as Gov. Ron DeSantis, reports are that the VP and her staff are not overtly positioning themselves to take over the top of the ticket.

“Look, Joe Biden is our nominee. We beat (Donald) Trump once and we’re going to beat him again, period,” she said to CBS News. “I am proud to be Joe Biden’s running mate.”

Meanwhile, though questions have raged about whether Biden is even trying to compete in Florida, given that Campaign Manager Jen O’Malley Dillon said the state isn’t in play, Harris has been a regular presence in the state, giving high profile speeches on a couple of occasions.

She took on DeSantis over state standards for the teaching of Black history last year, and this year she spotlighted abortion restrictions in the state.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. His work also can be seen in the Washington Post, the New York Post, the Washington Times, and National Review, among other publications. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


9 comments

  • Ron

    July 3, 2024 at 10:48 am

    In the midst of increasingly intense two-front global conflict, teetering domestic economics, looming threats to our social networks, fulminating anger against Washington, complete rejection of mainstream media, and on and on, it is wildly illegitimate to think someone could make a creditable run for president based on the fact she checks boxes marked “gender” and “race” on the 2024 “progressive” ballot. Nonsense.

    • forsaken

      July 3, 2024 at 12:26 pm

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    • otoh

      July 3, 2024 at 12:40 pm

      Checking the ‘right’ gender box has always been a requirement.

    • otoh

      July 3, 2024 at 1:27 pm

      otoh, checking the ‘right’ gender box has always been a requirement.

    • otoh

      July 3, 2024 at 1:29 pm

      *reply below

  • PeterH

    July 3, 2024 at 3:02 pm

    Independent voters are waiting patiently for Democrats to get behind a candidate who independent voters will support!

    • MH/Duuuval

      July 3, 2024 at 10:53 pm

      For independent women voters, Kamala should be their choice. Independent men, however, are not alll committed to women’s rights and so many may migrate to MAGAland.

    • Impeach Biden

      July 5, 2024 at 8:15 am

      Karma is a bitch and you guys are stuck. You, the DNC, the media, pushed incapable Joe for 3.5 years and now you have this fallout. Kammy as CIC? What a horrific thought.

  • MH/Duuuval

    July 5, 2024 at 9:51 pm

    Kamala Harris is as qualified as any other Democrat — and more than most — to be the next President.

    The idea of Trump proclaiming himself a genius on the basis of a “test” or two administered by the disgraced Navy doctor Ronny Jackson is another reason to vote for Harris.

    Trump who has yet to show anyone the “genius test” itself. Please, this is bathos and underscores the dissociative strain that characterizes Trump personally and his slavish MAGA minions.

Comments are closed.


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