Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
SportHandle’s election odds tracker shows Vice President Kamala Harris is outperforming President Joe Biden and closing the gap.
Monday’s update showed Harris’ odds of winning the presidency have climbed to 48.97% – an increase of seven percentage points week-over-week. Already, Harris’ implied probability tops Biden’s high watermark of 47%, which he reached in February before foundering over the next five months.
Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has hit a two-month nadir, with the probability he’ll return to the White House sitting at 57.32%. A note to non-bettors: the sum of implied probabilities will cross 100% because the bookie needs his cut, too.
While Trump is still seen as the favorite, he’s cratered over the last month, dropping from 75.4% on July 15 following the attempted assassination at his rally.
“As the weeks tick by toward the election, the odds keep on swinging in Harris’s favor,” a SportsHandle spokesperson said in a news release. “Whilst there is still just over an 8 point gap, Trump’s odds continue to slide amid the back and forth over the second Presidential Debate.”
Harris’ recent gains are also reflected in polling, with one from Leger showing her with a 49%-46% edge, and another set finding the VP within striking distance in key swing states.
The shift in odds comes as Trump and Harris squabble over the next presidential debate, with Trump pushing for a Fox News-hosted debate on Sept. 10. Harris wants to stick to a Sept. 4 debate on ABC, which the Trump campaign had agreed to when Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee.
With the ongoing dispute, it’s unclear whether or when there will be a Trump-Harris debate. While the common line on debates is they don’t push many voters off the fence, the late June one was certainly impactful. It’s possible the next could stymie (or accelerate, perhaps) Harris’ momentum.
Evening Reads
–“The woman who engineered Donald Trump’s rise from the ashes of 2020” via Meridith McGraw of Vanity Fair
–“The 64 wildest lines from Trump’s Atlanta rally” via Chris Cillizza of So What
–“Can Kamala Harris rebuild the Democratic Party?” via Nate Cohn of The New York Times
–“Florida Republicans who left party over Trump help launch ‘Republicans for Harris’” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
–“Why Nate Silver’s and 538’s ‘model’ isn’t that good.” via Dave Trotter of Voting Trend
–“Trump anointed JD Vance as MAGA crown prince – but Ron DeSantis isn’t going away” via Gary Fineout and Kimberly Leonard of POLITICO Magazine
–“Laurel Lee faces two GOP challengers for her U.S. House District 15 seat” via Sara-Megan Walsh of The Lakeland Ledger
–“Daniella Levine Cava, James Reyes kick off early voting in Miami-Dade” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics
–“Debby crossing northern Florida; threat of flooding looms large” via Bill Kearney, Angie Dimichele and Rod Stafford Hagwood of the Sun Sentinel
–“What happens when everyone decides they need a gun?” via Marin Cogan of Vox
–“Florida retailers urge parents to shop local as final week of tax-free school supplies holiday winds down” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics
Quote of the Day
“Having dedicated over a decade to public service in Florida, I am deeply troubled by the radical transformation of the Republican Party under Donald Trump’s authoritarian grip – a party I no longer recognize.”
– Former state Sen. Paula Dockery, on the launch of Florida Republicans for Harris.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
You rarely see someone order a Hurricane off resort property, but we could use one after Debbie downer’s swing through the Sunshine State.
OneBlood’s IT team gets a round of Reboots – but not until they’re 100% done fixing the hacked systems that caused a blood shortage at hospitals across the state.
You can call it a matter of crossing party lines. Or you can question their GOP bona fides. Regardless, there’s a new Florida Republican coalition supporting Harris. If you care to order them a drink, this layered red and blue one fits the bill.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
The USA men’s basketball team faces Brazil in the quarterfinals of the Olympic tournament on Tuesday (3:30 p.m. ET, USA Network).
Led by LeBron James, the U.S. swept through the group stage, beating Serbia, South Sudan and Puerto Rico by an average of more than 21 points per game.
In the 104-83 win over Puerto Rico, Anthony Edwards led the way for the United States with 26 points while six other Americans scored in double figures.
Brazil was not expected to make the quarterfinals, but they upset Spain to earn the eighth spot in the knockout round. Now they face an American team trying to win a 17th Olympic gold medal in team history. The last time the U.S. failed to win Olympic gold in men’s basketball was 2004 when they settled for Bronze. James was on the team as a 19-year-old. Now 39, he is trying to win his third Olympic gold medal after not playing in the past two games.
If the United States beats Brazil, they will advance to the semifinals against the winner of Serbia vs. Australia. Germany and Canada are the only other teams to have gone undefeated in the group stage.
The gold medal game is scheduled for Saturday, Aug. 10.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
