Last Call for 9.19.24 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics

Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Another day, another poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris with an outside-the-margins lead over former President Donald Trump.

The survey du jour hails from Florida Atlantic University’s Public Opinion Research Lab, which coordinated with Mainstreet Research USA to poll 820 likely general election voters Sept. 16-17. The top-line: Harris 50%, Trump 45%.

The gulf is only a smidgen outside the poll’s 3.4-percentage-point margin of error. Still, it meshes with the myriad post-debate polls that have dropped in recent days — yesterday’s YouGov/Economist update put the race at 49%-45%, while George Washington University/HarrisX shows the Veep with a four-point lead, 50%-46%.

The last major poll to show Trump ahead at the national level came from The New York Times, a publication in which the former President oft complained that he never printed anything optimistic about him or his candidacy.

Of course, holding the top spot in a national poll is about as important as being the regular season champ — nobody hands out rings for that. And, as any Democrat old enough to remember when Hypercolor shirts en vogue, the same goes for winning the popular vote.

As FAU’s Kevin Wagner puts it, “The race remains extremely tight, with both candidates having strong bases of support. The outcome may hinge on which campaign can better mobilize their core supporters and appeal to undecided voters.”

One notable difference from the YouGov survey highlighted in yesterday’s Last Call: Substantially more respondents in the FAU poll think Trump is going to come out on top in seven weeks. The prediction split still favors Harris, 54%-46%, but that’s two TDs above the 32% Trump managed on the same question with the other pollster.

Wagner explained that the prediction measure does have some value for prognosticators.

“Asking people to predict the winner can give a sense of how people see their friends and family voting. This type of question can be a window on the political mood and suggests that Vice President Harris’ support continues to be enthusiastic and visible.”

Evening Reads

—“Why is Donald Trump campaigning on Long Island?” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—”Inside the MAGA boat parade where there’s a contest for ‘most Trumpian’” via Elle Reeve of CNN

—“How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024” via Mary Radcliffe and Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

—”Don’t let randomness make a fool of you” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin

—”Who do voters really like? Taylor Swift.” via Rebecca Davis O’Brien and Christine Zhang of The New York Times

—”Warren Buffett’s front yard could matter in a close presidential election” via John McCormick of The Wall Street Journal

—“Here are all the incendiary comments Mark Robinson made according to CNN’s bombshell report” via Dan Parsons of Southeast Politics

—”Ron DeSantis promises relief for Florida condo owners by year’s end. But how?” via Rebecca Liebson of the Tampa Bay Times

—”The scary truth about how far behind American kids have fallen” via Anna North of Vox

—”Scientists have captured Earth’s climate over the last 485 million years. Here’s the surprising place we stand now.” via Sarah Kaplan and Simon Ducroquet of The Washington Post

Quote of the Day

“While the data seemed to indicate that the race would be very tight, Tom Leek won the race by a significant margin. There is no sugarcoating that.”

— Florida Justice Association President Todd Michaels, admitting FJA’s involvement in a smear campaign against Senate candidate Leek.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

It wouldn’t be the first time the Governor deserved a Sore Loser, but his remarks on what he may do if suspended State Attorneys Andrew Warren and Monique Worrell win in November just earned him a couple more.

Rep. Rachel Plakon’s 6-to-1 cash edge in HD 36 gives us an excuse to tell half the bartenders out there that they’re making Dry Martinis wrong. Repeat after us: Six parts gin, one part dry vermouth. And don’t you dare say vodka and Martini in the same sentence. It’s the ketchup of alcohol, and we won’t stand for it.

Maybe Sen. Nick DiCeglie won’t be able to bring his vacation rental bill back to the 2025 Legislative Session, but he still deserves credit for his efforts over the past couple of years. How about a nice Late Checkout?

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

It could be the game to decide the best college football team in the state.

On Saturday, Miami faces South Florida in Tampa with state bragging rights on the line (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The Hurricanes (3-0) have beaten two teams from the Sunshine State already. Miami opened the season with a 41-17 whipping of the Gators in Gainesville and followed it up with a 56-9 thrashing of Florida A&M. Miami is ranked No. 8 in The Associated Press Top 25 poll this week. It’s the program’s highest ranking since October 2020. The Canes have not been ranked in the Top 5 since 2017.

One of the catalysts for Miami’s success this season is quarterback Cam Ward, who transferred to the school from Washington State. Ward leads the nation with 1,035 passing yards and 11 touchdowns. He is the early odds-on favorite for the Heisman Trophy.

USF (2-1) beat Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss and lost at Alabama 42-16 in a game where they were down 14-13 in the 4th quarter. A win for the Bulls would be the biggest victory of head coach Alex Golesh’s tenure at the school. Last season, USF went 7-6 and won the Boca Raton Bowl over Syracuse.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.