Staff Reports
Florida’s economy has been on a roll for the past few years, and all signs indicate that it’ll continue riding high for the rest of the decade.
According to the newly released Florida Economic Forecast: 2023-2028/Q2 2024, the second economic commentary in Florida TaxWatch’s new quarterly series. While most economic indicators tracked in the report are trending in the right direction, FTW said that’s not an excuse for Florida to rest on its laurels.
“Florida’s economy grew by more than $140 billion during 2023, reaching a gross domestic product of $1.58 trillion, making it the 16th largest economy in the world; however, its sustainability is a question that must be asked and answered,” Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro said.
“As Florida TaxWatch pours through this data each quarter, we have found several contributing factors to the conversation, including population and net migration, employment, GDP and income growth and tourism, (which) must be addressed over the next five years.”
According to the report, Florida’s population boom will slow down a couple of notches, but it’s far from over — FTW expects the state to add another 1.15 million people over the next five years. The slowdown is partly due to some Sunshine Staters leaving for states such as Georgia, Texas and North Carolina.
In the job market, FTW expects unemployment to tick up slightly in the coming years, hovering in the 3.5% to 4% range. This should help alleviate some of the difficulties employers face in finding workers.
The overall economy, meanwhile, will continue to grow through 2029 but at a slower rate. Since inflation erodes Floridians’ purchasing power and limits increases in personal income, the 1% increase in personal income per capita through 2029 suggests that inflation will decline and Floridians’ spending capabilities will rise.
Tourism will look especially bright in the future. Visitation numbers are projected to increase steadily, from 146.2 million in 2024 to 170.1 million in 2029. Tourism directly supports 13 million jobs and is responsible for $73 billion in employee wages. You don’t have to work in tourism to reap the benefits, FTW said — the revenue it generates saves the average Florida household $1,840 a year in state and local taxes.
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Coming up, the usual assortment of news, intel, and observations from the week that was in Florida’s capital city by Peter Schorsch, Drew Wilson, Drew Dixon, Robert Haughn and the staff of Florida Politics.
But first, the “Takeaway 5” — the Top 5 stories from the week that was:
—Take 5 —
A win, not a win: Gov. Ron DeSantis won’t commit to letting two State Attorneys he removed from office serve even if they are elected in November. DeSantis previously removed Democrats Andrew Warren and Monique Worrell from the 13th and 9th Judicial Circuits, respectively, and now both are seeking re-election. DeSantis again cited Warren and Worrell’s pledges not to prosecute certain crimes when asked directly if he would “tell the voters” that he “overthrew the popular vote” if both were elected and again removed after the General Election. DeSantis didn’t give a direct answer, instead pivoting to his claims about the duo failing to enforce laws. Warren faces Suzy Lopez in Hillsborough County, while Worrell faces Andrew Bain. Both were appointed to the seats after DeSantis removed their predecessors.
No condo Session, yet: On Thursday, DeSantis said he would push the Legislature to help condo owners facing tough financial choices due to new safety regulations going into effect next year that would require them to foot hefty assessments to fund structural repairs. But he stopped short of saying he would call a Special Session on the matter. His reason: He doesn’t want lawmakers to rush the issue and push “half-baked” proposals that might not adequately help condo owners. That statement, delivered at an event in Pinellas Park, came after Republican leaders rejected calls to reconvene on the issue last month.
Too soon, anyway: DeSantis’ hesitation to call a Special Session might be prudent if one of the condo law’s principal architects is correct. Rep. Vicki Lopez said addressing costs condo owners face due to the new law would be premature before January. That’s when the law takes effect, and it won’t be until then that lawmakers have enough information to respond adequately to the impending financial crisis. Once the law is in effect, Lopez said, lawmakers will have a better idea of how much assessments are and, therefore, how much money the state might need to allocate to help pay for needed repairs.
Outta here: Tom Wallace, the Deputy Secretary for Data and Finance for the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) and one of the state’s top Medicaid officials, has resigned. The resignation came as a surprise to AHCA staff and health care lobbyists in the state, but it also came as the state faces mounting troubles over its Medicaid unwinding policy following the COVID-19 public health emergency. Matt Cooper will serve in an interim capacity in Wallace’s role, according to AHCA Secretary Jason Weida. Wallace will be on annual leave “for the next few weeks,” Weida said, meaning he will continue to draw his salary during that time. He made $183,855 annually.
Goodbye and hello: Two high-profile attorneys for GrayRobinson are leaving with eight others in the firm. They announced this week that the group will start their own practice focusing “on complex, high-stakes litigation.” Mayanne Downs and Jeff Aaron will open offices in Tallahassee and Orlando. The departure from GrayRobinson came with the powerhouse firm’s “blessings,” according to President and CEO Dean Cannon, who said he is looking “forward to continuing to collaborate with them.”
— Cashback —
There are few moves smarter than saving money to make your family smarter, and DeSantis is going out of his way to tell parents who invest in the Florida Prepaid Program that they’re making a big-brained move.
September is National College Savings Month, and DeSantis has announced a record number of refunds to parents who contribute to the state higher education fund.
“Because of our focus on academic achievement and fiscal responsibility, Florida has both the No. 1 ranked higher education system and the lowest tuition in the country,” DeSantis said.
In total, Florida has returned nearly $1 billion to Florida families through Florida Prepaid Program refunds.
The Florida Prepaid college saving program allows Florida families to lock in future tuition costs at today’s prices. Parents receive a refund if tuition stays lower than predicted, often resulting in thousands of dollars back.
— Flying the flag —
When it comes to military veterans who paid dearly for their service in the American armed forces, we shall never forget and neither will DeSantis.
Along those lines, DeSantis signed a proclamation establishing Florida’s annual POW/MIA Recognition Day. The move coincides with National POW/MIA Recognition Day, recognized on Sept. 20 nationwide.
“The POW/MIA flag is flown daily over the Florida Capitol, rest areas along Florida’s Interstate Highways, at Florida’s State Parks, and the state’s network of veterans’ homes to honor those classified as Prisoners of War or Missing in Action,” reads a news release from the Governor’s office.
“POW/MIA Recognition Day in Florida is an opportunity to honor all Americans who were POWs and those still missing and unaccounted for from all wars.”
—Instagram of the week —
—The week in appointments —
Clay County Development Authority — The Governor this week appointed Dennis “Rick” Dingle and Dell Hoard Sr. and reappointed Tina Clary and Tammy “Chereese” Stewart to the Clay County Development Authority. Dingle is the Chief Administrative Officer for the Clay County Clerk of the Court and Comptroller’s Office. He earned his bachelor’s degree in business administration from Flagler College and his MBA from the University of North Florida. Hoard is the owner of Grumpy’s Restaurant. Previously, he served as a transportation coordinator for Walmart Transportation Center. A lifelong resident of Clay County, Hoard attended St. Johns River State College. Clary is the principal and CEO of Clary & Associates. Previously, she was a member of the Florida Surveying and Mapping Society, the American Society of Highway Engineering, and the Clay County Chamber of Commerce. Clary earned her associate degree from Florida State College at Jacksonville. Stewart is the Assistant County Manager for the Clay County Board of County Commissioners. She was previously elected as a Clay County Commissioner and is a member of the Clay County Cattlemen Association, the Clay County Farm Bureau, and the Florida Planning and Zoning Association. Stewart earned her bachelor’s degree from Texas A&M University and her master’s in educational leadership and administration from UNF.
— Welcome to Florida! —
The “Be a Florida Hero” program, designed to lure more cops to serve in law enforcement departments in the Sunshine State, has landed another catch.
Attorney General Ashley Moody has paid tribute to police recruits who recently migrated to Florida from other states through a program called Thin Line Tribute: Sunshine Salute Series.
The most recent LEO on the list is Colton Harris, who’s now helping to keep the peace in North Florida after years working in a state that Moody (and many other Republicans) routinely use as a punching bag.
Harris moved from Oakland, California, after watching a criminal released from jail only hours after an arrest. He is now a deputy with the Clay County Sheriff’s Office, and during his time in front of the camera, he made clear that he believes there’s a stark difference between the two states’ approaches to policing.
“In our latest edition (of the series), we hear from Clay County Deputy Colton Harris, who fled chaos in California to serve in the most pro-law enforcement state in the nation — where we support the brave men and women who protect and serve,” Moody said as part of her feature on Harris.
To watch the tribute, please click the image below:
— Keep on truckin’ —
Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis wants the state to keep on truckin’, and this week provided an excellent opportunity to remind Floridians that the Sunshine State is home to many truckers who deserve a ‘thank you’ for keeping commerce running.
Patronis did his part this week by recognizing National Truck Driver Appreciation Week and highlighting the industry’s key contributions to Florida’s economy — trucking accounts for one out of 18 jobs in Florida.
“Florida is in the best fiscal health it has ever been, and that’s in no small part due to Florida truck drivers. These men and women keep our state’s economy moving and ensure that businesses and consumers alike receive the goods and resources they need to succeed,” Patronis said in a prepared statement.
“I’m proud to present the Florida Trucking Association this proclamation recognizing the importance of Florida truck drivers and the economic and cultural impacts they have on our state and our country.”
— A bit of relief —
FloridaCommerce announced Thursday that they were approving more than $3.2 million for small businesses impacted by Hurricane Debby.
In response to the August hurricane, FloridaCommerce announced it would aid small businesses through $3.2 million from the Florida Small Business Emergency Bridge Loan Program. The program is administered alongside the Florida First Capital Finance Corporation and provides loans to be paid back for businesses to receive relief.
“Thanks to the leadership of Gov. Ron DeSantis, FloridaCommerce was able to launch the Small Business Emergency Bridge Loan program quickly and rapidly bridge the funding gap for small businesses affected by Hurricane Debby,” said Florida Secretary of Commerce J. Alex Kelly. “This program provides immediate, critical financial support, putting cash-in-hand to help businesses keep employees on the payroll, make critical repairs, and get their doors back open.”
Through the program, small businesses can apply for loans of up to $50,000, with $100,000 available for agricultural small businesses. The program is intended to “bridge the gap” between disaster and long-term relief.
Businesses in Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, Dixie, Duval, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Nassau, Pasco, Pinellas, Putnam, Sarasota, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, and Wakulla counties are eligible to apply for the loan.
Any small businesses can learn more on FloridaJobs.org and have until Oct. 5 to apply.
— Heartbreaker —
The things you do for love.
But then again, pining for romance can lead people to be taken advantage of, and such was the case for the victim of a romance scheme in Alachua County that involved cryptocurrency.
The Florida Office of Financial Regulation announced this week that investigators nailed a Nigerian national who bilked his victim out of some $10,000 in a romance scheme that dates back about a year.
Sunday Adebola is charged with grand theft, scheming to defraud, money laundering, fraudulent use of a money service business, and stolen valor in the scheme.
Investigators say Adebola convinced a woman he was a U.S. soldier based overseas on an online dating site. The victim sent him more than $13,000 in Bitcoin. The Florida Attorney General’s Office said the case “was a first of its kind.”
If convicted, he could face 30 years in prison. Officials with the Office of Financial Regulation returned $10,000 to the victim.
— Raising the bar —
On Wednesday, the Florida Board of Governors approved the new 2024 Accountability Plan for the State University System of Florida.
The 2024 System Accountability Plan is an annual BOG report outlining the directions and initiatives taken across Florida universities. The report also includes data trends from the previous year, highlighting progression made across the universities that will help inform future initiatives.
This year, the report highlighted various progressions from the State University System of Florida’s accountability, particularly relating to degrees rewarded and degrees’ costs. It used them as reasoning to raise the standard of excellence in their plan. Notably, it showed a record-high four-year graduation rate of 62% and a decreased cost of bachelor’s degrees, dropping from $3,000 to $1,310, with financial aid included.
“The results within the 2024 Accountability Plan are further evidence that the State University System of Florida is the No. 1 system for higher education in the nation. The persistent focus on accountability sets our System and our institutions apart from those across the country,” said State University System of Florida Chancellor Ray Rodrigues. “We would not continue to reach landmark accomplishments without the excellent leadership and vision of Gov. DeSantis and the strong support from the Florida Legislature.”
Other notable takeaways from the plan include that the median wage of bachelor’s graduates after one year increased to $50,000. The percentage of both bachelor’s and graduate degrees within strategic emphasis programs increased by 60% and 65%, respectively. First-time college students returning for their sophomore year at the same institution increased to 89%. Bachelor’s graduates employed or enrolled in a graduate program one year after graduation increased to 74% as well.
“The institutions within the State University System of Florida continue to produce remarkable results for students while remaining affordable,” said Brian Lamb, Chair of the Florida Board of Governors. “The performance of our System shows our university faculty, staff and leadership, as well as our students, remain committed to improving outcomes and pursuing academic excellence.”
— Pitching in for Panthers —
The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) is launching a program to help aid the panther population and private landowners.
The FWC announced the launch of its Florida Panther Payment for Ecosystem Services pilot program. The program, aided by a grant from the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, intends to improve and encourage the conservation of Florida panther conservation on private lands, and further connect landscapes essential for the growth of the panther population.
“This program will also advance the sustainability of ranching’s contribution to Florida panthers and the Florida Wildlife Corridor being created to ensure the long-distance movement and genetic health of panthers, Florida black bears and other fauna and flora,” Andrew Walker, President and CEO of the Fish & Wildlife Foundation of Florida, said.
Participants will receive financial aid and resources to support goals toward mutual habitats between private land and panther populations. Enrollment is competitive and based on various factors, such as location, available funding, and the quality and amount of panther habitat provided.
“Private lands play a critical role in providing quality habitat for this endangered species,” said Jennifer Goff, deputy director of the FWC’s Division of Habitat and Species Conservation. “The FWC is excited to partner with private landowners in making the Florida panther a conservation success story found throughout our landscapes for years to come.”
Enrollment applications will be open from Sept. 19 to Oct. 19, and interested businesses can apply on the FWC website.
— FAMU looks to bounce back —
After a 56-9 loss to Miami, Florida A&M looks to start a new winning streak as the Rattlers travel to Troy on Saturday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
FAMU opened the season with close wins over Norfolk State and South Carolina State. Troy will honor the 1984 NCAA Division II national championship team during the game and will wear special 1984 throwback helmets to commemorate the team’s 40th anniversary.
Florida A&M has been led by quarterback Daniel Richardson, a graduate student who transferred from Florida Atlantic. Richardson has completed 68% of his passes with six touchdowns and one interception. His favorite target was wide receiver Jamari Gassett, who caught eight passes for 11 yards and two touchdowns in the season opener against Norfolk State.
The Rattler defense is still looking for a signature play. So far this season, they have not forced a turnover.
Troy (0-3) has played a very difficult schedule, losing games to Nevada, Memphis and Iowa.
Florida A&M and Troy have met four times in football, with each school winning twice. FAMU won the first two meetings in 1998 and 1999, and Troy won the most recent games in 2002 and 2018.
— FSU still searching for a W —
When will the Seminoles win?
That’s the big question for Florida State after starting the season with three consecutive losses. A Top 10 team to start the year, FSU has been the most disappointing team in college football so far as they host Cal on Saturday (7 p.m., ESPN2).
Cal (3-0) opened the season with wins over UC Davis, Auburn and San Diego State. Since joining the Atlantic Coast Conference, Saturday marks the Golden Bears’ first conference game.
While quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has been the focus of criticism, Florida State’s struggles have been most pointed in the trenches where they have lost the running game. In the season opener against Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland in a 24-21 loss. FSU was outgained 190-98 yards on the ground. The following week against Boston College, the rushing difference was even more pronounced. The Eagles outran Florida State 263-21 in a 28-13 BC win. Last week, in a 20-12 loss to Memphis, FSU managed only 37 yards of rushing.
Head coach Mike Norvell has some job security after an undefeated regular season last year, but the oddsmakers are already putting together lists of potential replacements in Tallahassee. Former Seminole and current Colorado head coach Deion Sanders is listed as the most likely next coach for the Seminoles ahead of former Baylor and New York Giants head coach Matt Rhule and Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin, according to SportsBetting.ag.
— High flyin’ —
Tallahassee International Airport officials are taking measures to keep the hub a pleasant experience before travelers head into the friendly skies.
The travel center that hosts visitors arriving and departing from the state’s capital is being upgraded. It will include upgraded workspaces, seating areas, and improved food and beverage options.
The airport also adds TSA PreCheck services, allowing passengers to make appointments to go directly to security screening and avoid long lines. Transportation Security Administration officers conduct searches before travelers can board airplanes.
The improvements come as officials with the Tallahassee hub engage in discussions to add possible new airline services — nothing is confirmed yet. Still, multiple potential deals are in the works, according to recent reports.
— Capitol Directions —
Ron DeSantis — Down arrow — He’s living proof you can have both a T14 degree and a TTT grasp of basic legal concepts.
Gov.’s Comms Staff — Down arrow — “Why is this Sen. Fine commemorative codpiece humming?”
Ray Rod — Down arrow — The guy who spent years pushing higher education surveys really, really doesn’t want you to look at this higher education survey.
Richard Corcoran — Crossways arrow — Wait, didn’t BOG have “concerns” last time they OK’d a check? … and the time before that, and the time before that.
Danny Perez — Up arrow — We’re glad he knows making university president searches even more opaque is a solution to absolutely nothing.
Eric Silagy — Up arrow — His thoughtful, prudent approach to higher education funding is a nice counterpoint to his assault on democracy.
Florida Justice PAC — Down arrow — “As an organization, we sent a necessary message that we will stop at nothing to lose.”
Opening day gifts — Crossways arrow — “Did you hear, Sen. Fine is handing out these cool gadgets!”
Nick DiCeglie — Up arrow — Sometimes folding is the right play.
William Snyder — Up arrow — Career cop, House Judiciary Chair, Martin County Sheriff, now add (attempted) assassin catcher to his resume.
Allison Tant — Up arrow — Who says Dems can’t raise money?
Frank Artiles — Down arrow — His lawyers say he’s a ‘stooge,’ and we won’t object.
Daphne Campbell — Up arrow — She never ate a dog.
Ron Book — Up arrow — The La Quinta deal was a massive win in the fight against homelessness in Miami-Dade.
Greenberg Traurig — Up arrow — Fred Karlinsky and his team continue to dominate the field and they just won the hardware to prove it.
Todd Michaels — Down arrow — Welp, the plausible deniability strategy just got nuked.
Prepaid’ers — Up arrow — They’re about be Repaid’ers.
Warren Sponholtz — Up arrow — The CIO job is in good hands.
Spencer Brass — Down arrow — Don’t bother warehousing the signs.
Dan Rashbaum — Down arrow — Hopefully, the blood money was worth it, because you just ruined the only thing FSU folks had to look forward to this season.
Richard McCullough — Up arrow — Honestly, he’s worth every penny.
ACC — Down arrow — It’s not much comfort, but at least FSU is winning in court.
FAMU — Crossways arrow — So, can they get the money Sasse pissed away?
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