Rick Scott leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 2 points in latest poll

Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott holds a mere 2-point lead over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in a poll by the Independent Center. That puts the incumbent’s lead within the poll’s margin of error.

The Independent Center surveyed likely voters in three Southern swing states and included Florida’s high-profile U.S. Senate contest in the mix.

It found 46% of likely voters planning to support Scott, 44% intending to vote for Mucarsel-Powell and the remainder of voters still on the fence.

That’s a bigger lead than Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump enjoys over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the state, according to the same poll. But Scott has a lower share of the votes than Trump. Neither Republican clears a critical 50% threshold.

The poll’s Florida results have a 4-percentage-point margin of error.

Pollsters also asked how voters would split if a strong independent or third-party candidate emerged. The scenario winnowed Scott’s lead. Without having a specific third option named, about 43% say they would vote to re-elect Scott, while 42% say they would support Mucarsel-Powell and 4% say they would vote for the third candidate. Of note, the number of undecided voters grows in this scenario from 10% to 11%.

While no minor candidate has emerged to date as a viable option, several other candidates will appear on the General Election ballot for U.S. Senate in Florida. Libertarian Feenan Bonoan will have a line, as will Ben Everidge and Tuan Nguyen, who are both running without party affiliation. Howard Knepper also qualified as a write-in candidate.

Republicans hold an edge on a generic ballot test in congressional districts as well, according to the poll. About 43% of voters statewide intend to vote Republican in their local U.S. House race, and 41% will vote Democrat, with 6% saying they will vote for an independent or third-party candidate if given the chance. Polling data broken down by congressional district was not available.