Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
This week, Donald Trump sent Secretary of State Cord Byrd a letter naming attorney Jesus M. Suarez as his point man for observing ballot counting in the November election.
According to the letter, emailed Monday, Trump is designating Suarez for selecting poll watchers, observers for county canvassing board ballot examinations, and individuals to inspect ballot materials — such as vote-by-mail envelopes, cure affidavits, corresponding comparison signatures, duplicate ballots, and corresponding originals — before canvassing or tabulation.
“Finally, I designate Jesus M. Suarez as my point of contact to receive notifications from the county canvassing board related to days, times, and hours for observation, inspection, or examination of election processes related to the activities outlined above,” Trump wrote.
“This does not preclude me from designating additional representatives for any other canvassing board activity or activity of the county supervisor of elections where I am authorized to designate a representative on my behalf to ensure the integrity of Florida’s election processes.”
Suarez is a partner at Continental Strategy, a law and lobbying firm co-founded by Carlos Trujillo, a former state Representative who was later appointed by Trump to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the Organization of American States.
Last month, Suarez was elected Chair of the Judicial Nominating Commission for Florida’s 11th Judicial Circuit. The firm also recently announced his inclusion in “2025 Edition of The Best Lawyers in America and Ones to Watch,” where he is recognized for his bankruptcy law and litigation work.
Florida law allows candidates and sponsoring committees for ballot amendments to designate a poll watcher to be present in each polling room or early voting area at any one time during the election. Individual poll watchers must be named no later than two weeks before Election Day, and county supervisors have until the Tuesday before Election Day to approve the nominees.
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Last week, Bloomberg and Morning Consult released polling that showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in six out of seven swing states.
This week, Morning Consult’s Cameron Easley reminded onlookers to take poll numbers — even Morning Consult’s — with a grain of salt.
The company’s weekly tracking poll has consistently shown Harris ahead of Trump nationally in recent weeks, and she has a positive trendline in most swing states as well. But none of those leads are outside the margins of error, which are in the 3% to 4% range depending on the state.
Easley’s analysis included a graph showing the state-by-state outcome if the margin breaks toward Trump. He’d win all seven swing states and cruise into the White House. Depending on who undecided voters flock to in the final weeks before Election Day, he could win without the margin tilting toward that extreme.
Is a clean sweep likely? No. And Easley has argued previously that there’s no reason to assume any potential polling errors will break Trump’s way.
“But we can’t rule out that he will be the beneficiary of a polling error that makes him the winner. That’s why this election is a toss-up — and why much of the online discourse about polling results this election cycle deserves a more critical look between now and Election Day,” he said.
Evening Reads
—”‘Is someone going to help us?’ Thousands of uninsured homes were in Helene’s path.” via Kevin Crowe, Shannon Osaka and Molly Hennessy-Fiske of The Washington Post
—”Florida criminalized homelessness. Then Hurricane Helene hit.” via Rachel M. Cohen of Vox
—“Why legal experts are worried about a second Donald Trump presidency” via Emily Bazelon and Mattathias Schwartz of The New York Times
—”‘American Death Squads’: Inside Trump’s push to make police more violent” via Asawin Suebsaeng and Tim Dickinson of Rolling Stone
—”Trump’s outrageously false claim of 13,000 migrant murderers ‘on the loose’” via Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post
—“Is the Blue Wall shakier than it looks?” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—”Rick Scott places $10M in TV ads as the Florida Senate race enters homestretch” via Matt Dixon of NBC News
—”Five Floridians with disabilities say state is violating their rights” via Christine Sexton of the Florida Phoenix
—”Striking dockworkers are top earners — when they work” via Paul Berger of The Wall Street Journal
—“Is Disney bad at Star Wars? An analysis” via James Hibberd of The Hollywood Reporter
Quote of the Day
“This is a false narrative with real consequences.”
— Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, on Trump’s threat to revoke TPS for Haitian immigrants.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Yes, it’s inspired by the faux-Prince/Bobby Brown pop star from A Goofy Movie, but we’re still recommending a PowerLIME for the lineworkers who’ve been working around the clock to restore power — only 10,000 more to go!
Whether you support the longshoremen strike or not, Gov. Ron DeSantis’ plan to deploy the National Guard and State Guard to Florida ports earns him a Flaming Scab.
We’re not sure likening the Homeland Security director to a virus does anyone any good, but Attorney General Ashley Moody still gets a T-Virus Elixir for tossing out the metaphor during her latest TV hit.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Gators, UCF meet with pressure on both teams
Florida and UCF meet in Gainesville on Saturday with the Knights as a road favorite (7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network).
The Gators (2-2) are coming off a bye week but still do not have a settled quarterback situation. Senior Graham Mertz will start, but freshman DJ Lagway will likely get some playing time as well. Head coach Billy Napier said this week that the Florida coaching staff will make a plan for quarterback usage week by week.
“What I don’t want is a guy to be playing cautious,” Napier said. “I want him to do what he’s supposed to do, have confidence in the play, be aggressive, and then they’re working together and not looking over their shoulder worrying about if I screw up. I just don’t think that’s good for either player.”
UCF (3-1) is coming off their first loss of the season, Colorado’s 48-21 defeat. The Knights fell behind 21-7 in the first half and never got closer to seven points the rest of the way. UCF’s star RJ Harvey was limited to 77 yards on 16 carries, although he did catch four passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.
The game is particularly important for Florida. The Gators face five ranked teams in the next six games before finishing the season at Florida State.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
