Anna Paulina Luna locked in dead heat against challenger Whitney Fox in high-profile CD 13 contest

CD 13 could be a bellwether for Election Night.

Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is locked in an exact tie with Democratic challenger Whitney Fox in the high-profile race for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, according to a recent survey from St. Pete Polls.

The survey, commissioned by Voting Trend and The Florida Squeeze, found each candidate with 46% support, with the remaining 8% of voters undecided and a 3.3-percentage-point margin of error.

The tie is a huge departure for the district, where Republicans hold a more than 8-percentage-point voter registration advantage, according to the most recent L2 voter data. Cook Political Report lists the district as R+6, which takes into account past voting trends and nonpartisan voters, who make up nearly 29% of the district electorate.

It’s also particularly remarkable considering Luna’s performance two years ago when she first flipped the district to GOP control. Then, she defeated Democrat Eric Lynn by more than 8 percentage points. Like Fox, Lynn was a moderate Democrat. Unlike Fox, Lynn was running in a Midterm Election year with lower turnout and at a time when Republicans overperformed all over the state.

Fox’s competitive standing in the Republican-leaning district supports recent events in the race that have signaled a potentially tight contest, including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee adding Fox to its coveted “Red to Blue” program. A political analysis group also recently bumped the CD 13 race from “leans” GOP to “tilt” GOP. And in the third quarter of 2024, Fox narrowly outraised Luna while nearly eliminating the cash gap between the two in the final weeks of campaigning.

In another possible boost to Fox, Luna came under fire recently for voting against emergency funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency just one day before Hurricane Helene skirted past the Pinellas County-based district some 100 miles offshore and causing widespread catastrophic flooding.

Just two weeks later, Pinellas County again faced devastation after a near-direct hit from Category 3 Hurricane Milton, which famously tore the roof from Tropicana Field and set a construction crane crashing down atop a historic portion of a downtown St. Pete building that is home to the Tampa Bay Times.

Luna may have done some damage control on that vote, appearing with President Joe Biden in the aftermath of Milton. But with nearly 69% of survey respondents indicating they were personally impacted by at least one of the hurricanes, it may still be an election issue for Luna.

“Whitney Fox is surging because Floridians are looking for real leadership, not someone like Anna Paulina Luna, who voted against disaster relief funds,” said Phil Gardner, spokesman for the Blue Dog PAC, which is supporting Fox. “Whether it’s banning abortion, repealing the Affordable Care Act, or selling out to corporate developers and insurance companies, Anna Paulina Luna has spent her time focusing on culture wars and partisan politics instead of delivering for Florida. Floridians deserve a Member of Congress who shows up, not one who hides behind cable TV hits and endless Tweets.”

It’s worth noting that while Fox is tied with Luna in the poll, another Democrat does even better. Vice President Kamala Harris fell just shy of 50% support in the survey within CD 13, with former President Donald Trump trailing by 3 percentage points, at less than 47% support. Only 2% of CD 13 voters remain undecided in the presidential race.

Fox’s performance in the poll is largely based on a greater amount of crossover support from Republicans — with 15% of GOP voters surveyed planning to cast a ballot for the Democrat, compared to just 7% of Democrats who plan to vote for the Republican — and higher support among independent voters. Among voters with no party affiliation, 41% support Luna while more than 48% support Fox.

Luna leads Fox among White voters, with nearly 48% support. Fox is just shy of 45% support. But Fox has a much bigger advantage among Black voters, with support at more than 65% to Luna’s less than 22%.

An odd finding in the data: More men support Fox in the poll (48% to 45%) while women favor Luna (49% to 43%.) That’s surprising because Fox has made support for women’s reproductive freedom a hallmark of her campaign, an issue that tends to resonate more among women voters.

Fox leads Luna in almost every age demographic except for those 70 and older. The district’s most senior voters support Luna 58% to 33%. Fox, meanwhile, has the biggest support among young voters aged 18-29 (59% to 32%), followed by those 30-49 (51% to 40%) and those 50-69 (49% to 43%).

While the poll is another piece of good news for Fox, widely believed to be a heavy underdog in the race, it is less promising for the Democratic first-time candidate than a previous St. Pete Polls survey, which found Fox with a 4-point lead.