Red wave: Florida GOP maintains nearly 2-to-1 early vote lead over Dems, but trail modestly in mail returns
Image via Fresh Take Florida.

Early Voting vote sticker
Nearly 55% of early in-person votes are GOP.

Whether these early votes are coming at the expense of Election Day turnout is anyone’s guess, but thus far the Republican Party of Florida is winning the turnout war against the Florida Democratic Party.

The secret sauce: a massive bank of early, in-person votes.

As of Thursday morning, 620,322 Republicans have voted in person, compared to 313,682 Democrats, 188,420 no-party voters and 23,999 “others.” That gives the GOP more than 54% turnout among 1,146,123 early birds.

Democrats do hold an advantage in returned mail ballots, at 709,736 to 606,191 for the GOP. In addition, 321,890 no-party voters and 33,985 “others” have also returned ballots, for a total of 1,671,802 thus far cast.

Dems had a 673,819 advantage in 2020’s returned mail ballots, and that won’t happen this time around in all likelihood.

Republicans dominate active voter registration, with an advantage of 1.055 million.

The early turnout numbers and the massive bank of Republican votes are likely good news for presidential candidate Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott and the efforts to kill constitutional amendments that would legalize recreational pot and would remove state constraints on reproductive rights.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. His work also can be seen in the Washington Post, the New York Post, the Washington Times, and National Review, among other publications. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


17 comments

  • Michael

    October 24, 2024 at 9:56 am

    Is it good journalism to write an article that assumes the 30% of voters that are NPA are irrelevant? How can you draw any sort of conclusion when almost a third of the population universe is ignored for purposes of your projection? You should leave statistical forecasting to those who actually took the class in college.

    • MH/Duuuval

      October 24, 2024 at 10:07 am

      AG can only report on what he has at hand.

      The vote of independents and NPAs could turn Trick Scott into a permanent lame duck. Do it, please!

      • Bobble head Kammy

        October 24, 2024 at 12:10 pm

        Ha! Ha! You were smart not to take my offer on a friendly wager.

        • A day without Libturds

          October 24, 2024 at 1:16 pm

          Libturds don’t have any money to bet with. They are unemployed losers living off of the government.

      • forsaken

        October 24, 2024 at 1:07 pm

        I essentially make about $9,000-$13,000 every month on the web. It’s sufficient to serenely supplant my old employments pay, particularly considering I just work around 10-13 hours every week from home. I was stunned how simple it was after I attempted it duplicate underneath web…..

        Begin here>>>>>>>>> Payathome9.Com

    • A day without Libturds

      October 24, 2024 at 1:07 pm

      You still believe hunter’s laptop is Russian propaganda. Libturds are stupid.

  • A Day without Republican Voters

    October 24, 2024 at 9:57 am

    Lots of you will in a hurry to evacuate on election day, when Cat 5 Patty 100 percent guaranteed by hurricane model

    • A day without Libturds

      October 24, 2024 at 1:14 pm

      100 percent of libturds are stupid.

  • MH/Duuuval

    October 24, 2024 at 1:44 pm

    Babblehead and L’Turd are unable to keep a civil tongue in their heads, which should be simple since they are the same troll.

    • A day without Libturds

      October 24, 2024 at 1:58 pm

      Paranoid libturd projection. You scumbags post far worse . So go take your hypocrisy and stuff it up your ass.

      • MH/Duuuval

        October 25, 2024 at 8:17 pm

        Classy response: Peachy and his online creatures.

  • Sunshine19

    October 24, 2024 at 7:27 pm

    Honestly, who could want 4 more years of this s%t we have endured? Who would want inflation? Who would want higher gas prices and higher grocery prices? Who could want massive illegal immigration that devalues the wages of American workers? Who in their right mind would want to pay higher taxes? You have got to have a rock for a brain to want 4 more years of this crap. Vote Trump 2024

    • MH/Duuuval

      October 25, 2024 at 10:44 am

      Are you referring to the continuing growth of the number of scofflaw billionaires at the same time that so many citizens are having difficult economic times?

      You’re pouring gas on the fire.

  • Kellyblueeyes

    October 25, 2024 at 2:30 pm

    I see maga uneducated losers here..go back to you inbreeding and worshipping your fat orange guy.

  • Cheesy Floridian

    October 25, 2024 at 4:03 pm

    I am waiting until election day to vote. I think many more people are as well. I think Florida will be a lot closer than people think. Vote for freedom

  • Cindy

    October 25, 2024 at 4:14 pm

    People will vote.
    No more you have to be a certain educated clique to enter into business
    I see a few 4th grade education still holding up America and govs salaries

  • THE EARL PITTS AMERICAN FAN CLUB

    October 28, 2024 at 7:07 pm

    Good evening America,
    STAND BY FOR SAGE WISDOM:
    A full 37% of Democrats polled by THE EARL PITTS AMERICAN FAN CLUB indicated they will protest this election by staying home and wanking (masturbating) on election day as they will be protesting the way in which Harris was forced on them by “Spilling The Seed” as many times as possable rather then voting.
    I, THE SAGE EARL, agree with them, and to honor their choice am lifting all CHASTIZEMENTS & all Wanking Bans on election day and there-after.
    Thank you to all of my Beloved Democrat Wankers … err I mean voters out there.
    I, THE SAGE EARL, dont know the Worlds Record for the number of Wanks in a day, However, I encourage all Leftys to make a vallant effort …. Good Wanking to you, one and all.
    What Ever the Sage Record is for the Largest Number of Wanks is … Have Fun & Beat It !!!!
    EARL PITTS AMERICAN, PRESIDENT EMERITAS OF THE EARL PITTS AMERICAN FAN CLUB.

Comments are closed.


#FlaPol

Florida Politics is a statewide, new media platform covering campaigns, elections, government, policy, and lobbying in Florida. This platform and all of its content are owned by Extensive Enterprises Media.

Publisher: Peter Schorsch @PeterSchorschFL

Contributors & reporters: Phil Ammann, Drew Dixon, Roseanne Dunkelberger, A.G. Gancarski, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, Cole Pepper, Jesse Scheckner, Drew Wilson, and Mike Wright.

Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @PeterSchorschFL
Phone: (727) 642-3162
Address: 204 37th Avenue North #182
St. Petersburg, Florida 33704