Red wave: Florida GOP maintains nearly 2-to-1 early vote lead over Dems, but trail modestly in mail returns
Image via Fresh Take Florida.

Early Voting vote sticker
Nearly 55% of early in-person votes are GOP.

Whether these early votes are coming at the expense of Election Day turnout is anyone’s guess, but thus far the Republican Party of Florida is winning the turnout war against the Florida Democratic Party.

The secret sauce: a massive bank of early, in-person votes.

As of Thursday morning, 620,322 Republicans have voted in person, compared to 313,682 Democrats, 188,420 no-party voters and 23,999 “others.” That gives the GOP more than 54% turnout among 1,146,123 early birds.

Democrats do hold an advantage in returned mail ballots, at 709,736 to 606,191 for the GOP. In addition, 321,890 no-party voters and 33,985 “others” have also returned ballots, for a total of 1,671,802 thus far cast.

Dems had a 673,819 advantage in 2020’s returned mail ballots, and that won’t happen this time around in all likelihood.

Republicans dominate active voter registration, with an advantage of 1.055 million.

The early turnout numbers and the massive bank of Republican votes are likely good news for presidential candidate Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott and the efforts to kill constitutional amendments that would legalize recreational pot and would remove state constraints on reproductive rights.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. He writes for the New York Post and National Review also, with previous work in the American Conservative and Washington Times and a 15+ year run as a columnist in Folio Weekly. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


16 comments

  • Michael

    October 24, 2024 at 9:56 am

    Is it good journalism to write an article that assumes the 30% of voters that are NPA are irrelevant? How can you draw any sort of conclusion when almost a third of the population universe is ignored for purposes of your projection? You should leave statistical forecasting to those who actually took the class in college.

    Reply

    • MH/Duuuval

      October 24, 2024 at 10:07 am

      AG can only report on what he has at hand.

      The vote of independents and NPAs could turn Trick Scott into a permanent lame duck. Do it, please!

      Reply

      • Bobble head Kammy

        October 24, 2024 at 12:10 pm

        Ha! Ha! You were smart not to take my offer on a friendly wager.

        Reply

        • A day without Libturds

          October 24, 2024 at 1:16 pm

          Libturds don’t have any money to bet with. They are unemployed losers living off of the government.

          Reply

      • forsaken

        October 24, 2024 at 1:07 pm

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        Reply

    • A day without Libturds

      October 24, 2024 at 1:07 pm

      You still believe hunter’s laptop is Russian propaganda. Libturds are stupid.

      Reply

  • A Day without Republican Voters

    October 24, 2024 at 9:57 am

    Lots of you will in a hurry to evacuate on election day, when Cat 5 Patty 100 percent guaranteed by hurricane model

    Reply

    • A day without Libturds

      October 24, 2024 at 1:14 pm

      100 percent of libturds are stupid.

      Reply

  • MH/Duuuval

    October 24, 2024 at 1:44 pm

    Babblehead and L’Turd are unable to keep a civil tongue in their heads, which should be simple since they are the same troll.

    Reply

    • A day without Libturds

      October 24, 2024 at 1:58 pm

      Paranoid libturd projection. You scumbags post far worse . So go take your hypocrisy and stuff it up your ass.

      Reply

      • MH/Duuuval

        October 25, 2024 at 8:17 pm

        Classy response: Peachy and his online creatures.

        Reply

  • Sunshine19

    October 24, 2024 at 7:27 pm

    Honestly, who could want 4 more years of this s%t we have endured? Who would want inflation? Who would want higher gas prices and higher grocery prices? Who could want massive illegal immigration that devalues the wages of American workers? Who in their right mind would want to pay higher taxes? You have got to have a rock for a brain to want 4 more years of this crap. Vote Trump 2024

    Reply

    • MH/Duuuval

      October 25, 2024 at 10:44 am

      Are you referring to the continuing growth of the number of scofflaw billionaires at the same time that so many citizens are having difficult economic times?

      You’re pouring gas on the fire.

      Reply

  • Kellyblueeyes

    October 25, 2024 at 2:30 pm

    I see maga uneducated losers here..go back to you inbreeding and worshipping your fat orange guy.

    Reply

  • Cheesy Floridian

    October 25, 2024 at 4:03 pm

    I am waiting until election day to vote. I think many more people are as well. I think Florida will be a lot closer than people think. Vote for freedom

    Reply

  • Cindy

    October 25, 2024 at 4:14 pm

    People will vote.
    No more you have to be a certain educated clique to enter into business
    I see a few 4th grade education still holding up America and govs salaries

    Reply

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