Poll shows abortion rights measure falling just short of passage in Florida; will need undecided voters to break its way

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A measure that would protect abortion rights in Florida’s Constitution still lacks support to pass on Election Day.

That’s according to a new survey from St. Pete Polls, conducted for Florida Politics, which shows Amendment 4 failing. The poll found almost 54% of voters will support the measure, but Florida law requires 60% of voters weighing in on a ballot measure to vote “yes” for it to become enshrined in the constitution.

The poll found just under 38% of voters are against the initiative. That means the supporters of the amendment need to win over most of the undecided voters, who make up 8% of those surveyed.

Amendment 4 would reverse a Florida ban on abortions six weeks in pregnancy, and effectively restore access to the status quo before the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Pollsters report a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Results are based on responses from 1,227 likely General Election voters polled from Oct. 23 to 25.

Of note, the measure looks to be in better shape among those who already cast their ballot by mail or in-person early voting, nearly half of those surveyed.

But even there, less than 58% of those who already cast their vote say they supported Amendment 4, while 37% say they voted against it; a remaining 5% did not say if they voted on the measure one way or the other or left it blank.

The poll found almost 79% of Democrats support the ballot measure, with 15% against it. Republicans, in contrast, broke against it 59% to 32%. A majority of independent voters, almost 57%, support the amendment while 36% are firmly opposed.

Almost 66% of voters age 29 and younger plan to support Amendment 4, but no other age demographic has polling that exceeds 60% support.

About 55% of women and 53% of men support the measure.

StPetePolls 2024 State GEN October25 U74PS6 by Jacob Ogles on Scribd