Upsets for Rick Scott and Anna Paulina Luna? Susan MacManus says Democrats can still win both races

Susan MacManus. Image via Florida TaxWatch.

A U.S. Senate race remains a long shot for Democrats in Florida. But Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell might deliver a surprise victory over U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, according to Dr. Susan MacManus.

“If there’s going to be an upset in Florida, it might be this one,” she told attendees of a Florida TaxWatch event in Palm Beach.

Days from a Nov. 5 election, the state’s most prominent political scientist discussed what races still warrant attention in the first election cycle in decades when Florida isn’t considered a swing state for President.

MacManus showed attendees polling data that has consistently shown a much tighter race in Florida between Mucarsel-Powell and Scott than between presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Moreover, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the last few weeks has delivered greater support and cash resources to Mucarsel-Powell, creating some cash parity.

In the U.S. House, MacManus said only one Florida race warrants attention.

“In Pinellas County, the race between the incumbent Anna Paulina Luna and newcomer Whitney Fox is tied right now,” she said.

Similarly, MacManus said the Senate District 3 contest in Tallahassee, where Democrat Daryl Parks is challenging Republican incumbent Carey Simon, is the only Florida Senate race that remains uncertain.

Notably, all of the races have Democrats on offense, despite wide consensus that Trump holds an insurmountable lead for the state’s electoral votes. MacManus suggested that’s because Democrats see plenty of opportunity in pockets of the state they lost amid a Midterm red wave in 2022.

That may be best illustrated in the Florida House.

“Democrats for the first time have a field of candidates in every one of these races,” she said. “They’re hopeful, and we could see this, that they will take back some of the seats that they lost in ’22.”

Democrats in particular see parts of Central Florida and South Florida where they can claw back seats, according to MacManus.

“All that Democrats have to do is to take a net gain of five to break the supermajority that Republicans have over the house, which affects procedural ability to stop things,” she said.

The biggest statewide issues to watch, though, may be whether Amendment 3, a recreational pot measure, and Amendment 4, which restores abortion rights, will reach a 60% threshold to become part of Florida’s Constitution.

On the abortion measure, she said both sides have produced the best microtargeted political ads she has ever seen.

“Watching political ads, you can see they are well-funded and the stakes are high,” MacManus said.