Fresh Take Florida
Women voters in Florida are turning out in larger numbers than men so far, with just five days before Election Day, in a year when abortion rights and a female presidential nominee are on the ballot.
The gender split could erode former President Donald Trump’s expected margins in the state — with polls showing women breaking for Vice President Kamala Harris — and push the highly controversial abortion rights constitutional amendment closer to passage.
With more than 6.6 million votes already cast by Friday, about 3.6 million of those came from women across all parties, compared to about 3 million from men, according to a new analysis of real-time turnout data by Fresh Take Florida, a news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications.
About 11 million people total voted in 2020, and 9.6 million people voted in 2016.
The new analysis is based on government data that show who voted so far — but not how they voted. Democrats in Florida have said they expected higher than usual turnout by women — even among Republican women voters — because of the proposed constitutional amendment that would reverse tough limits on abortions passed by the GOP-led Legislature and Gov. Ron DeSantis. Some Republican women have expressed strong anti-abortion sentiments.
Among Democrats, over 505,000 more women have voted in Florida so far than men. Among Republicans, nearly 3% more women — or more than 89,000 — have voted so far than men. About 17,000 more women who were not affiliated with any political party voted than the same group of men.
“You’re having a record turnout among Democratic and Republican women — among liberal, moderate and conservative women,” said Sharon Austin, a University of Florida political science professor who studies urban politics and American government. “Some of them really want Trump to win, and some of them really want Trump to lose.”
Austin said Republican women were turning out in large numbers because they favored Trump’s messages about the economy and pro-life policies — which could doom passage of the abortion rights amendment.
Brighid Arwen Macchia, 20, of Vero Beach is President of the Young Democrats of Indian River, a GOP-leaning county on Florida’s eastern coast. Trump soundly beat Joe Biden in the county with 59% of the vote in 2020, and he beat Hillary Clinton there with nearly 61% of the vote in 2016.
Macchia has been knocking on doors and working phone banks to increase turnout. She said her phone bank convinced a Trump supporter this week to vote for Harris after a conversation about accusations of sexual harassment against Trump and his role in weakening abortion rights.
“This woman went from being a Trump supporter to saying, ‘OK, I’m going to go to the polls. I’m going to bring my sisters, and we’re going to vote Kamala Harris,’” Macchia said. “There’s stories like that constantly.”
How the gender gap in Florida could affect the Presidential Election or down-ballot races here is complicated. Democrats hope Harris can appeal to potential GOP-crossover women voters who might be turned off by Trump’s increasingly dire rhetoric, such as when he told a campaign rally this week that he will protect women “whether the women like it or not.”
Pre-election polls have consistently shown Trump with stronger support among men than women, but polls have also consistently shown Trump winning Florida overall by large margins.
It was also not immediately clear whether the gender gap would persist through Election Day, or whether women have been more likely to cast mail ballots or vote early.
In Bradenton, Linda DeLozier Ivell, 69, is President of the Sarasota Republican Women’s Club. She doesn’t believe the abortion rights amendment — opposed by DeSantis and other GOP leaders in Florida — will convince Republican women to cross party lines to vote for it or Harris. She has been handing out the Republican voter guide every day outside one of the early voting polling locations.
“I do not think there’s going to be too much crossover on Amendment 4,” Ivell said. “I think it’s just too extreme to reflect the interests of women in our area in particular, and if you can’t get women to support that, I doubt that anyone else is.”
In Lakeland, Dena DeCamp, 68, runs the Polk County Republican Party campaign headquarters. She encouraged Republican women to vote early because Trump encouraged it, she said. She cited the economy and inflation as reasons to support Trump.
Trump beat Biden in Polk County in Central Florida with 56% of the vote in 2020, and he beat Clinton by a similar margin in 2016.
“He went into office in 2016, he made our life better. He improved the economy. He improved our standing among all the other countries in the world,” she said. “What our job was, was to go out and remind people how good it was when Donald Trump was president last time.”
One reason more women among Democrats are voting than men in the party is that there are more of them. Since the 2020 election, more than 200,000 men have fled the Democratic Party in Florida, registering as having no party affiliation or as Republicans. Republican men also left their party since the 2020 election but in much smaller numbers.
Austin, the UF professor, said the Democratic Party’s emphasis on progressive policies was responsible.
“Some of the progressive causes are things that many people don’t agree with,” Austin said. “That’s something that’s off putting, and that really alienates some voters, especially some male voters.”
The gender gap in turnout isn’t surprising, said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor and assistant director of the University of Central Florida School of Politics, Security and International Affairs.
In American politics, women are more likely to support Democratic candidates, while men are more likely to vote Republican, Jewett said. The gender gap in politics extends further than party support. Women are just more likely to vote than men, he said.
“They are, on average, more engaged, more likely to be registered and to actually show up and vote,” Jewett said. He agreed that the abortion rights amendment and Harris’ candidacy were likely driving large turnout among women so far.”
“You would think that might inspire a lot more women to show up early. They might be really mobilized,” Jewett said. “Who knows, maybe they’re old school, and they’re going to show up on Election Day.”
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This story was produced by Fresh Take Florida, a news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications. These reporters can be reached at [email protected] and ellathompson@freshtakeflorida.com. You can donate to support our students here.
16 comments
EARL PITTS AMERICAN
November 2, 2024 at 7:33 am
Goot Morn ‘Ting Beautiful Florida Lady Voters,
Welp I told everyone prior to Kamala’s Texas rally that Beyonce would not perform as Kamala & THE DNC promised. Yes in case any of you Beautiful Florida Lady Voters missed the reporting on that rally that’s exactly what happened.
Beyonce showed up, read a quick 4 minute pre-prepared statement, & got out of there. The croud Boo’ed Kamala for what seemed eternity. How can anyone trust Kamala with her Beautiful Florida Lady Voters Vote after such lies and broken promises as the second Beyonce lie?
That’s right The Second Kamala Beyonce Lie. Least we forget Kamala and The DNC pulled the Same Beyonce stunt at The DNC Convention at which promises of a Beyonce performance were made and Beyonce never even showed up.
THAT WAS STRIKE 2:
Beautiful Florida Lady Voters, dont “Strike Out” by voting for Kamala … NO … Instead “COME ON DOWN” to where we await with open arms to Love, Respect, and Never Lie to you.
I’m EARL PITTS AMERICAN, and I approve of all Beautiful Florida Lady Voters, joining The Trump Freedom Train.
Again, Beautiful Florida Lady Voters, Come On Over where people Love, Respect, and Dont Lie to you,
EARL PITTS AMERICAN
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 2, 2024 at 10:45 am
A special place in hell for any woman,who vote for Trump the sexual predator Google Survivors For Harris
I Am Garbage
November 2, 2024 at 7:37 am
So Kammy had Cardi B at one of her rallies yesterday. If she wins will Cardi B sing the song WAP? Do you ladies really look up to a Hoe like that? Boy the stories Kammy and Cardi B could share. 🤣
Tom
November 2, 2024 at 8:14 am
Your comment really sums up what this election is about – old white guys in a blind panic about losing control. On one hand, you’ve got Mr. Grab em by the pu55y and on the other hand you have a successful woman. With him, it’s locker room talk but she’s a hoe because she had a relationship some guy. Cardi B does WAP and Kid Rock does WCSR, she’s a hoe but he’s a good old boy. The youngins (20’s & 30’s) I know don’t see the world that way and they tell me they will be voting. If they do turn out and vote, you might be in for a long four years.
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 2, 2024 at 10:46 am
You mother was a whore ,when she had you
ScienceBLVR
November 2, 2024 at 7:41 am
And a woman shall lead them
y una mujer los conducirá
Can’t wait to say Welcome Madam President! What took you so long?
I Am Garbage
November 2, 2024 at 7:54 am
To answer your question what took so long? Well she was busy opening the flood gates on the Southern Border. If she wins her first press conference will be a comedy show full of word salad.
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 2, 2024 at 10:58 am
You do not live near the Mexican border,I do nobody in Texas is not complaining like you are ,maybe You , Trump and your Mother, should do a threesome on election day
I Am Garbage
November 2, 2024 at 4:06 pm
So are you in another Red State Texas? I did live near Del Rio some time ago. I will bet all the money in the world that the Del Rio that I knew and the one overridden by Kammy’s illegals is night and day.
YEW OWEME
November 3, 2024 at 9:52 pm
MAGA MARK, del rio got wiped out by the recent hurricane floods. del rio was a nice place. it was a jewel in the smokey mountains. now del rio texas, what a hellhole. who would want to live there. del rio tennessee, well that was a nice place. it will be built back for sure. it’s been there since the 1790’s maga mark, no wonder you are such a jerk. del rio is an awful place. it seems to have had a negative influence on you.
PeterH
November 2, 2024 at 8:32 pm
MAGA Republicans are manning the Klown Lifeboats!
KathrynA
November 3, 2024 at 10:59 pm
I think there will be a huge crossover vote on women voting for Harris and not always due to abortion. It’s the demeaning remarks Trump’s made on Harris and about women, in general and how they should be under their husband’s control and not work, vote or even have access to contraception and more. He wants men to see them see women only as sex objects and mark women bearing many children. Who wants to go back to that. You bet there will be crossover voting! I’m a proud professional , mother and grandmother and wife and until Trump came along, was a lifelong Republican. He changed all that and I’ll fight for the rights of my daughter and granddaughters and all women and minorities, too. God created and loves us each equally.
cassandra was right
November 4, 2024 at 10:06 am
“whether the women like it or not.”
Sums it up for me…
END MINORITY RULE!
VOTE HARRIS!
YES on 4
I Am Garbage
November 4, 2024 at 12:34 pm
I, and I alone, am the real I Am Garbage. Formerly known as Impeach Biden as well as several other not-too-clever names.
I am here, now, ready to endorse Kamala Harris for President of the United States of America.
Call it a change of heart, call it adjusted anger medication, call it what you will, but there it is.
I am I Am Garbage, and I’ve been wrong for all the wrong reasons — misogyny, racism, fear of others not like me. But I am a changed man now.
Vote Kamala.
YEW OWEME
November 4, 2024 at 1:13 pm
MAGA MARK, i didn’t think you had it in you. i thought you were either too stupid or immature to admit being wrong. i thought you were fearful of what your maga buddies would think. i won’t call you a liar, but i won’t think you have seen the light until you start believing in truths instead of lies. we’ll see.
Jojo
November 4, 2024 at 4:39 pm
Case I point why the results of Victory Insights polling can be thrown in the garbage
Comments are closed.