UF survey: November shows impressive upswing in consumer confidence among Floridians

Consumer Sentiment among Floridians improved in July.

After a brutal October and sinking consumer confidence among Floridians following back-to-back hurricanes, November’s University of Florida (UF) consumer sentiment survey produced the strongest upswing in three years.

The UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research study showed Floridians regained their economic confidence last month. Consumer sentiment jumped to 81.1 points in November, a sharp increase of 3.7 points from the October figure of 77.4 points.

November’s consumer sentiment figure for Florida is the highest figure since 2021.

“The 3.7-point increase in consumer sentiment is one of the largest in over three and a half years, specifically since March 2021,” said Hector H. Sandoval, Director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

“The most significant changes occurred in Floridians’ expectations regarding their personal finances over the next year, as well as expectations about the national economy over the next year and five years. Notably, outlooks on the national economy reached levels not seen since just before the pandemic in early 2020.”

October’s consumer sentiment report in Florida took a beating after the state’s economy was thrown into turmoil following two of the most powerful hurricanes that struck the state in years. Hurricane Helene slammed the Big Bend area on Sept. 26 and two weeks later Hurricane Milton plowed into the Gulf Coast on Oct. 9.

Countless thousands of businesses, schools and other events were disrupted and even employment was thrown off for about a month. U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) weekly new jobless claims spiked in the immediate aftermath of the storms. October’s general unemployment figure, though, remained stable at 3.3%, according to FloridaCommerce.

But as Sandoval said, the anxiety peaked before the Nov. 5 Presidential Election as many Florida residents remained uncertain how the results of the ballot count would impact their future economic outlook.

“This is the first reading after the national presidential election, reflecting Floridians’ sentiment in light of the outcome. With 56.1% of the vote in Florida going to President-elect Donald Trump, it’s no surprise that consumer sentiment in Florida surged, as elections that shift the party in power typically boost sentiment among those aligned with the winning party. Additionally, it’s worth noting that in early November, the Fed approved another quarter-point interest rate cut as inflation approached the 2% target, further lowering borrowing costs,” Sandoval added.

Every major economic indicator used to compile the consumer sentiment report showed increased confidence among Floridians. That included “highly optimistic” views of economic conditions, personal finances a year from now and expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next year.

The indicators bode well for the ongoing holiday shopping season through Christmas, too.

“The increase in consumer sentiment coincides with the holiday shopping season, suggesting positive growth in holiday sales this year. This is good news for retailers statewide, especially as spending intentions also saw a significant increase in November,” Sandoval said.

UF researchers conducted the consumer sentiment survey from Oct. 1 through Nov. 26 by interviewing a total of 619 Floridians through mobile phones and online questionnaires.