Peter Schorsch
Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics.
By Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel McAuliffe, Jim Rosica, and Drew Wilson.
Less than 12 hours after Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Andrew Gillum sparred — and met — for the first time in Sunday’s gubernatorial debate, a new poll of the nationally watched contest found Gillum leading by a point.
While the St. Pete Polls survey didn’t get a bead on how, or if, Sunday’s debate resonated with voters, though it may serve to bring the Gillum campaign back down to earth after a pair of Sunday polls found the Democratic nominee rocketing ahead in the home stretch.
With that outlier poll from CNN mixed in, RealClearPolitics polling average shows Gillum up just 3.7 percentage points, and with 9 percent undecided DeSantis has plenty of room to catch up.
In other words: Brace for another close one.
St. Pete Polls also found that the Senate race is still looking like a dogfight. Exiting Republican Gov. Rick Scott and incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson are deadlocked as of Oct. 21, with Scott leading by a statistically insignificant three-tenths of a point.
Whether those polls prescient or pyrite remains to be seen, but all other polls have cast the race as one that’ll come down to the wire. And come Tuesday afternoon, when FAU-BEPI pops the poll du jour, the race is likely to move back into “too-close-to-call” territory.
In its only other post-primary poll of the statewide seats, FAU found Scott and Nelson were separated by a point, 42-41 percent, with Gillum and DeSantis registering as a 2-point affair, 41-39 percent.
But Nelson only needs to win by one vote to earn a fourth term, and he’s the odds-on favorite to do just that according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, which currently gives the longtime lawmaker a two-thirds chance of hanging on despite his expected vote share breaching just 51 percent.
— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —
—@NateSilver538: Democrats have a generic ballot lead of 8.5 or 9 points. Not sure if people realize how large that is. A bit larger than the 1994 and 2010 waves, when the GOP won the popular vote by ~7 points each time. Similar to 2006, when Dems won by 8 but underperformed in swing districts.
—@MCIMaps: With multiple polls out, I feel 100% comfortable saying Scott got NO bounce from his Hurricane Michael leadership. This doesn’t surprise me, storm was very regional, and he didn’t get an Irma (2017) bump either. When running for #FLSEN — ideology is trumping all else
—@DavidBauerlein: Several national television and print reporters at the rally for Democrats at UNF including the Showtime show “The Circus”
—@Ryban1001: National Council for Home Safety and Security’s 2018’s 100 Most Dangerous Cities in America and #Tallahassee isn’t listed. Who is? Florida City Cocoa Belle Glade Lake City Homestead Riviera Beach Daytona Beach, Lake Worth Miami Ft. Pierce
—@Fineout: Looks like @treyradel is getting involved in this year’s governor’s race with a radio ad that calls @AndrewGillum a “champion for the people” because he will ban guns, legalize drugs and establish government-run health care. Group behind ad says it will run in Panhandle
—@JHendersonTampa: I just got a phone call that started with a recorded voice ordering, “Don’t hang up.” I immediately hung up
—@SkipFoster: My eyes are wide open on the trouble FSU is going to have blocking Clemson, but I think the Noles are improving, esp. on defense. I like the under and an FSU cover — something like 28-16 Clemson.
—@BrechtHeuchan: On Twitter/news seems like world is on fire, ppl mean to ea other. But when you go out, there is a diff reality. Our church gathered tons of supplies, loaded some into the bus & dropped in Marianna. Can’t describe what I saw, devastation yes — but kindness & humanity more.
— LATEST TURNOUT FIGURES —
Monday marked the beginning of Early Voting for many counties in Florida, but with the first day in the bag just 1,958 votes were added to the state’s election tracker.
With massive counties such as Miami-Dade and Palm Beach among those opening up for early voting on Monday, it’s likely there’s scores of ballots waiting to be added in to the total on Tuesday.
Of the few EV ballots reported, 1,811 of them came from Okaloosa County, while 146 hailed from Charlotte County and one solitary vote came from Palm Beach County. GOP voters make up more than 70 percent of the miniscule EV sample one after Day 1.
Mail ballots came in at an equally slow drip. As of Sunday afternoon, nearly 924,000 ballots had completed their round trips and were back in the hands of county supervisors of election. Many expected Monday to push the VBM tally into the seven figures, however, only about 12,000 more ballots were returned during the 24-hour interregnum. So, 935,633 it is.
Thanks to the slow day, Election 2018 currently features nearly the same partisan divide, give or take a few tenths of a percent, as it did on Sunday and the day before.
Republicans have cast a combined 412,963 ballots and make up 44 percent of the whole. Democrats have turned in 358,922 ballots and have a 38 percent share. And NPA and other-party voters have sent out or shown up to mark 165,706 ballots, accounting for just under 18 percent of the total.
A final noteworthy tidbit: Liberty County made the scoreboard on Monday after turning in its first batch of mail ballots. Heading into Tuesday, only Gulf and Hendry counties were still showing zeroes across the board.
Story you won’t read in Sunburn: “25% of millennials say they have PTSD from the 2016 election, study says — psychologist available.”
— TOP STORY —
Joe Biden’s descent on the Sunshine State drew thousand-plus crowds in Tampa and Jacksonville on Monday as he rallied alongside Gillum, Nelson and other Democrats.
But Biden could be doing as much for himself as he is for his party’s candidates in Florida; he’s undoubtedly energizing voters to back Democrats Gillum and Nelson, but also finding friends in the Sunshine State as he explores a potential presidential bid in 2020.
And he’s not the only one. There’s an emerging trend of other presidential potentials making headlines in Florida this cycle. Among them: Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker.
In Tampa: Biden’s midterm message was that the election is larger than life. “This election is bigger than politics. For real. This goes well beyond,” the Delaware Democrat told the crowd, according to Steve Contorno of the Tampa Bay Times.
In Jax: The message was the same. But in the Bold City, a brief “run Joe run” chant broke out.
‘Wasting time’: That’s how the Republican National Committee described Biden’s cameos. “While Biden was attempting to gin up support for an unhinged Democratic Party, Republicans were rallying behind our proven Republican leaders who have fought hard to get Floridians back to work,” RNC spokesperson Joe Jackson said.
Assignment editors — Biden will headline a public ‘Winning Ticket Rally’ in Orlando joined by congressional members Stephanie Murphy and Val Demings, Cpt. Mark Kelly, Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer and other Democratic candidates: pre-press set 1:30 p.m., doors open 2:30 p.m., preprogram 3 p.m., main program 3:45 p.m., Cheyenne Saloon, 128 W. Church St., Orlando.
— GILLUM VS. DESANTIS —
Morning must-read (trust us, this will be driving the day) – “Actually, yes, Andrew Gillum signed a Dream Defenders pledge” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
“Ron DeSantis backs out of meeting with USA TODAY Network” via James Call of the Tallahassee Democrat — A spokesman for the campaign informed the Democrat this morning DeSantis would not be attending the hourlong meeting in Tallahassee. The campaign said a statement would be forthcoming, but by late afternoon nothing was sent. DeSantis had agreed last week to the hourlong discussion with editors and readers of the six newspapers that make up the USA TODAY Network-Florida. Gillum will meet with the editors next week, Oct. 31. The discussion will be broadcast on Facebook Live.
“Hillary Clinton in private fundraisers with Andrew Gillum in Manalapan, Miami” via George Bennett of the Palm Beach Post — Clinton will be in Manalapan for a daytime reception with Gillum, then appear at a Miami dinner for Gillum’s Forward Florida PAC with tickets ranging from $10,000 to $50,000 for “premium seating,” according to an invitation. The Manalapan fundraiser is at the home of major Democratic donors Marsha and Henry Laufer, who also hosted a fundraiser for Clinton in April 2016 as she pursued the Democratic presidential nomination against Bernie Sanders. For the Clinton-Gillum event, admission ranges from $250 “friend” tickets to $5,000 for a private lunch. The Miami event is hosted by former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, one of Gillum’s rivals for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, and veteran Democratic fundraiser Chris Korge.
Florida Conservation Voters support Gillum with nearly $500K digital buy — Florida Conservation Voters Action Fund is committing to a nearly $500,000 digital advertising effort to elect Gillum as Governor. FCV has endorsed Gillum as the only candidate who will fight for clean water and climate action to prevent algae blooms and lessen the impact of red tide events that hurt Florida’s economy. The fund will run digital ads across multiple platforms, focusing on the current red tide crisis and the need to fight climate change.
To view the ad, click on the image below:
“Running mates may add heft on health care” via Christine Sexton of the News Service of Florida — When it comes to the nuts and bolts of providing access to coverage, it may be running mates who have a deeper knowledge of the industry and the ripple effects that potential changes could have across the state. DeSantis, who has sharply criticized the federal Affordable Care Act and government-provided health care, tapped as his running mate state Rep. Jeanette Nunez, a Miami Republican whose income comes in part from a public hospital that relies heavily on Medicaid. Gillum, meanwhile, chose as his running mate Winter Park businessman Chris King, who spelled out a detailed health care proposal while running unsuccessfully in the Democratic primary for governor. King has shied away from discussing the concept known as “Medicare for all,” which Gillum embraced in the primary. Health care has become a major issue in the race for governor and in numerous other races. A key part of that issue is the role of government programs, such as Medicaid and Medicare, should play in the health care system.
Assignment editors — DeSantis will campaign tomorrow in Jacksonville, and Miami: 8:30 a.m., announcement by regional Sheriffs, Jacksonville Veterans Memorial Arena, 300 a Philip Randolph Boulevard, Jacksonville; 1:30 p.m., pastors outreach event, Church at the Cross, 700 Good Homes Road Orlando; 4 p.m., Jewish Unity event, Mo’s Bagels, 2780 NE. 187th St., Miami.
— NELSON VS. SCOTT —
“Bill Nelson racks up another polling win, Rick Scott camp pushes back with own numbers” via Matt Dixon of POLITICO Florida — Nelson is holding onto a 6-point lead over Scott, according to new numbers released Monday by Quinnipiac University. Nelson has held slight leads in five of the last six polls. Each time Scott’s camp has publicly scoffed, but the new numbers prompted them to release numbers conducted by their pollster showing Scott up 51-46. Quinnipiac has long shown Nelson with a lead among voters who have no major party affiliation. That lead has now grown to more than 20 percentage points, which if it were to hold, would make the three-term Democratic senator very difficult to knock off. While Nelson holds substantial leads among those key demographics, Scott holds a 54-44 lead with men, and a 53-44 lead with white voters, both key voting blocs for Republicans. Nelson leads 94-3 with black voters and 59-39 with Hispanic voters. The poll released by the Scott campaign, which was conducted by Virginia-based OnMessage, was compiled between Oct. 14-18. It had a sample size of 2,200, leaning Republican by 1 percentage point. It had a margin of error of 2 percent.
“Scott internal poll has him leading Nelson” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics — A new internal poll released by the Scott campaign shows the Republican ahead by 5 percentage points in the race for U.S. Senate. That’s in disagreement with a pair of independent polls released Monday, which show the candidates either deadlocked or with Democratic U.S. Sen. Nelson in the lead. The Scott survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. and consisted of 2,200 likely voters. It showed Scott earning 51 percent support with Nelson nabbing 46 percent, leaving 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was just over 2 percent. The 5-point margin for Scott does match his lead in polls taken from May through mid-August, most of which appeared to show Nelson was in trouble of losing his Senate seat. However, Nelson’s fortunes have turned around in recent months according to outside pollsters. FiveThirtyEight now gives him about a 2 in 3 chance of beating back Scott’s challenge.
Scott rolls out Spanish-language ad — “Fight for You” is a new Spanish-language highlighting Scott’s continued commitment to Puerto Rico and his work supporting the island territory following Hurricane Maria. The 30-second spot also blasts Nelson for failing to stand up for Puerto Rico, choosing politics above people: “Bill Nelson: Weak. Confronts no one and only shows up on election time.”
To view the ad, click on the image below:
“Scott defends education spending in latest ad” via AG Gancarski of Florida Politics — The 30-second spot, per a campaign media release, is “highlighting Senator Nelson’s false attack on Governor Scott’s historic funding for Florida’s education system.” “Time and time again, Senator Nelson has been confused about the reality of Florida’s education accomplishments over the past eight years,” the media release asserts, citing spending more dollars on education and per-pupil funding, assertions that have been disputed. The script mirrors that perspective: “Under Rick Scott, Florida has its biggest education budget in history, more spending per pupil than ever before … After 40 years on Washington, Bill Nelson in confused about what’s happening in Florida.”
To view the ad, click on the image below:
— NOTES FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL —
ICYMI from last night’s “Last Call” newsletter — A proposed constitutional amendment to increase the homestead property tax exemption is failing, according to results of a new poll. A survey by St. Pete Polls shows that nearly 49 percent of voters asked said they had already voted for it or planned to. Amendments need no less than 60 percent approval, however, to be added to the state constitution. Another 35 percent said they voted against it or planned to, and another 16 percent still hadn’t decided how or if they would vote on what’s “Amendment 1” on the statewide ballot.
“Amendment 3 backers spend heavily on direct mail” via the News Service of Florida — Voters In Charge, a political committee behind the proposal on the Nov. 6 ballot, spent $483,720 on direct mail from Oct. 6 to Oct. 12, according to a newly filed finance report. The payments, which went to the West Palm Beach firm Cornerstone Solutions Florida, made up almost all of the $488,813 that Voters In Charge spent during the period. Voters in Charge, which has been heavily funded by Disney Worldwide Services, Inc. and the Seminole Tribe of Florida, is backing an amendment that would change the Florida Constitution and give voters the “exclusive right to decide whether to authorize casino gambling” in the state.
“Voter restoration amendment spends another $1.8M on ads” via Drew Wilson of Florida Politics — The committee sponsoring the “Voting Restoration Amendment,” which would restore voting rights to Florida felons who have completed their sentences, spent more than $1.8 million of its reserves pushing the proposal on the airwaves, online and via direct mail between Oct. 6 and Oct. 12. … Topping the ledger was a $1 million media buy through Screen Strategies Media, followed by a $400,000 digital ad buy through Mercury Public Affairs and another $400,000 payment for direct mailers from Mission Control. … The spending was augmented by a $112,000 “in-kind” contribution from ice cream company Ben & Jerry’s, which bought another round of digital ads. … Amendment 4 would restore voting rights to the vast majority of those individuals with the only carveouts being felons convicted of sex offenses or murder. Constitutional amendments must earn 60 percent of the vote to pass.
“Another ugly Florida campaign — over dog racing” via Arek Sarkissian of POLITICO Florida — A bitter Florida campaign featuring charges of lying, dirty tricks and bad faith is nearing an end. But this isn’t the battle for governor or Senate: It’s a ballot question that would ban greyhound racing in Florida, one of the industry’s last bastions. The fight over Florida’s Prop 13 has been rife with drama, punctuated earlier this month by a state government decision to shut down public tours of kennels — a loss for greyhound racing advocates who were looking to disprove the allegations of animal cruelty that critics have thrown at them. Backers of the ban have promoted the amendment with hours of race video capturing dog deaths and countless photos of injuries and mistreatment. The ballot question fight has left the industry’s nerves raw amid the increased scrutiny from animal rights groups.
Pam Bondi backs Gus Bilirakis — Attorney General Bondi officially endorsed U.S. Rep. Bilirakis for re-election in Florida’s 12th Congressional District, citing the Tarpon Springs Republican’s commitment to fighting opioid abuse. “Gus Bilirakis has consistently been a good partner when it comes to protecting Floridians, especially on the issue of combating opioid abuse,” Bondi said in a statement. “For example, Gus understood how important Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs were in the fight to shut down pill mills and he worked across the aisle to help secure federal funding for them. His record of service and proven leadership is clear to anyone who has had the privilege of working with him. Whenever we need his assistance on any issue, Gus is always there for us.”
Kristen Carlson, DCCC spend big on CD 15 advertising — Lakeland Democrat Kristen Carlson joined up with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to buy another $825,000 worth of ads in the race for Florida’s 15th Congressional District, where she faces Republican state Rep. Ross Spano… Carlson’s campaign account was the source of $455,000 of the TV buys, with $361,000 of that spending heading to broadcast ads in the Tampa Bay media market and another $95,000 or so heading to cable buys set to run from Oct. 23 through Oct. 29. The DCCC ad spending totaled $370,589, with their ads set to air on cable channels starting tomorrow and running through Election Day. … Spano and the National Republican Congressional Committee are putting down some cash for ads, but not nearly as much as Carlson & Co. The pro-Spano buys totaled $127,000, with $76,000 heading to cable and $51,000 going toward broadcast. … Carlson and the DCCC have spent a combined $1.5 million on CD 15 ads this cycle, while Spano and the NRSC have spent less than $300,000.
Here are a couple of fun reads …
“Paid time off to vote is on the rise, survey says” via Steven Melendez of FastCompany — About 44% of U.S. companies will do so, up from 37% last year, meaning that the majority of companies still don’t provide such a provision, according to a report from the Society for Human Resource Management. Some businesses have also instituted no-meeting policies for Election Day, hoping to clear up employee schedules, and some have added on-site registration to make sure their employees are actually eligible to vote.
“Twitter, Lyft, Bumble and Tinder: How tech and social media companies may change the election this year” via Cat Hofacker of USA TODAY — Tech companies and social media platforms have unveiled initiatives to encourage their users to show up at the polls. Just under 70 percent of Americans use some form of social media, according to the Pew Research Center. With userbases numbering in the millions — and often billions — social networking platforms have the ability to reach voters on a massive scale. This year, many tech companies zeroed in on voter registration. Last month, for National Voter Registration Day, organizations flooded their social media accounts with messages promoting registration and information about the various state deadlines. While voter registration is the first step for many companies, others like Lyft are taking it a step further. The transportation company has made headlines with its “Ride the Vote” campaign, which offers half-price rides on Election Day and connects voters to their nearest polling place.
— DOWN BALLOT —
“State campaign committee rakes and money” via the News Service of Florida — The Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee received about $2.3 million from Oct. 6 to Oct. 12, with the money funneled from other political committees. The Committee, which is chaired by incoming Senate President Bill Galvano is not required to file a finance report until Nov. 2. But reports filed by other committees for the period from Oct. 6 to Oct. 12 are included in the state database. They indicate the Galvano-led committee received contributions such as $750,000 from Treasure Florida, a committee tied to state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis; $500,000 from Jobs for Florida, a committee led by Senate Majority Leader Wilton Simpson; and $300,000 from Working for Florida’s Families, a committee led by Senate Appropriations Chair Rob Bradley.
“Dana Young trounces Janet Cruz in fundraising” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — Young has raised nearly $1 million for her re-election bid against Democrat Cruz. Not included in that figure is another $580,000 in in-kind contributions from the Florida Senatorial Campaign Committee. Cruz had $358,000 with $160,000 more in in-kind contributions. Her fundraising haul so far also includes $60,000 in carry-over funds from her House campaign account. That puts Young way out ahead in campaign cash in what is shaping up to be one of the state’s most competitive Senate races. Young’s campaign raised $56,000 from Oct. 6-12, with $41,000 of that coming through in-kind contributions. (They’re defined as “anything of value except money made for the purpose of influencing the results of an election.”)
“Lindsay Cross ad: ‘Put a scientist in the Senate’” via Janelle when Taylor of Florida Politics — Cross is running against incumbent Jeff Brandes for the Senate District 24 seat covering parts of St. Petersburg, Pinellas Park and St. Pete Beach. “As executive director of the Florida Wildlife Corridor, I fought for our water supply and our environment. Now I’m ready to fight for you to make sure we have great public schools, access to affordable health care a clean environment and a strong economy because what we don’t need is more red tide and empty promises,” the 30-second ad says. It ends with Cross’s catchphrase: “It’s time to put a scientist in the Senate.” The Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee launched a website and accompanying television ad blasting Cross for her “radical progressive agenda” and tying her to U.S. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gillum. The website and ad, which have the same imagery, say the “radicals” support open borders, higher taxes and government-run health care.
To view that ad, click on the image below:
“Jennifer Webb wants false attack ad removed from the airwaves” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — The ad condemns Webb for taking contributions from special interest groups, political insiders and lobbyists, but was chock full of inaccuracies and falsehoods. Webb asked her opponent, Ray Blacklidge, to petition the group behind the ad to remove it from the airwaves. In response, Blacklidge posted on his campaign Facebook page a public denouncement of negative advertising by third parties. “District 69 voters are looking for candidates with a positive vision for our region and effective solutions for the challenges we face. They have had enough of political games and immature attack ads from third parties, and so have I. All third-party political attacks should stop now,” Blacklidge wrote last week. In a disclaimer at the end of the ad, Citizens for Florida Prosperity Political Committee took responsibility for the ad. But when the Webb campaign reached out to Spectrum, they said the Republican Party paid for the ad.
Happening tonight — Democratic candidate Webb hosts the final fundraiser in her campaign for House District 66, featuring special guests Congressman Charlie Crist, County Commissioners Janet Long, Charlie Justice and Ken Welch, St. Pete Beach Mayor Al Johnson, Vice-Mayor Dave Wells, commissioners Fred Steierman, Keith Overton and Tim Bogott among others, 5:30 TradeWinds Island Grand Resort, 5500 Gulf Blvd., St. Pete Beach.
— AFTER MICHAEL —
“Hurricane Michael killed at least 29 in Florida, 39 total” via The Associated Press — Florida Emergency Management Division spokesman Alberto Moscoso says the state toll stood at 29 on Monday afternoon. Ten deaths have been reported in other states. The latest update in Florida adds four deaths from the hardest-hit coastal Bay County, bringing the total there to 19. Gulf County had 3 deaths, Gadsden and Jackson counties each had two deaths, and Clay, Liberty and Calhoun counties each had one death. State emergency management officials tally storm-related deaths based on rulings from district medical examiners.
“After hurricane, Ken Detzner sends reminder on early voting” via Florida Politics — Secretary of State Ken Detzner, Florida’s chief elections officer, sent out a reminder Monday on early voting options for the Nov. 6 general election … Gov. Scott issued an executive order that gives Supervisors of Elections in Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Liberty and Washington counties the authority to extend the number of days for early voting and designate additional early voting locations … “All 67 counties will offer early voting from Oct. 27-Nov. 3 at designated early voting sites,” Detzner said. “Some counties may offer additional days of early voting and counties severely impacted by Hurricane Michael have more flexibility in providing early voting and vote-by-mail options to their voters.”
“Judge rejects second lawsuit on registration deadline” via the News Service of Florida — U. S. District Judge Robert Hinkle issued a two-page order denying a preliminary injunction sought by the groups Common Cause, New Majority Florida Education Fund and Mi Familia Vota Education Fund. The groups and the Florida Democratic Party filed separate lawsuits this month that sought to give Floridians an extra week to register to vote because of Hurricane Michael. Both cases sought an extension until Oct. 16 because of concerns that the hurricane could prevent people from registering to vote.
“Toll collections resume after Michael” via the News Service of Florida — Tolls had been suspended on the Mid-Bay Bridge and Spence Parkway in Okaloosa County, Garcon Point Bridge in Santa Rosa County, Bob Sikes Toll Bridge in Escambia County and the Orchard Pond Parkway in Leon County. Gov. Scott ordered the suspension Oct. 8, two days before Michael made landfall in Bay County and caused massive damage in parts of Northwest Florida. Department of Transportation spokesman Tom Yu said in an email that “in counties unaffected by Hurricane Michael, tolling authorities were given the authority to resume tolls as early as Friday evening.”
“Marco Rubio highlights need to restore fighter jets at Tyndall” via Danny McAuliffe of Florida Politics — Several expensive fighter jets stationed at Tyndall Air Force Base were sheltered on site instead of being moved to a different location while Hurricane Michael crept toward Florida’s Panhandle. That’s cause for concern to Republican U.S. Sen. Rubio, who noted that at least 17 of the 55 F-22 Raptors at the Panama City facility — almost one third — were designated Non-Mission Capable, or NMC, and consequently unable to be relocated ahead of the storm. “While the damage assessment of these remaining aircraft is still underway, the facts are clear that any damage sustained could have been avoided if the NMC rate for the F-22 was lower,” Rubio wrote in a Monday letter addressed to Heather Wilson, Secretary of the Air Force.
“After Michael, Panama City residents cope with no power, cash-only transactions and baby-wipe showers” via Frances Stead Sellers, Kevin Begos and Katie Zezima of The Washington Post — Residents are now carving out new, unfamiliar existences amid the destruction, driven by the dictates of survival and loss of the staples of modern life. Some are devising fresh ways of doing former jobs. Others are seeking entirely new employment, often facing competition from outsiders looking to take advantage of the repair work that follows a disaster. And everyone is adapting to a society where credit cards and cellphones often don’t work. The recovery has transformed their surroundings into a giant construction site, where the whine of sirens joins the constant buzz of chainsaws and the clanks of heavy equipment. Traffic crawls. A week without infrastructure is testing even those who prepared for the storm and its aftermath.
“Final flight into Michael captured rare storm data” via Tristram Korten of the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting — Michael developed quickly over unseasonably warm water, allowing it to continue intensifying right up to landfall, which is very rare. Also rare, perhaps unprecedented, is for a Hurricane Hunter mission to follow a hurricane to its landfall, which this one did. The data recorded from this flight is invaluable, according to climate scientists, because how hurricanes intensify so rapidly, as Michael did, is not well understood. “The data from that flight is going to be studied and debated and delved into very deeply for a decade,” said Ryan Truchelut, a meteorologist with the private forecasting service WeatherTiger. These missions are more critical now because of global warming’s impact. As Michael intensified, water temperatures in the Gulf measured 83 to 84 degrees, three to four degrees warmer than average for this time of year. Warm water is hurricane fuel. The warmer the water, the faster storms grow.
“Could Michael extinguish Apalachicola’s struggling oyster industry?” via Andrew Yawn of the Pensacola News-Journal — The most violent storm in the history of the Panhandle shifted limestone bricks like Jenga blocks and toppled entire walls. Light bulbs were filled with water by the 9-foot storm surge and 155 mph winds — the fourth strongest in history by a U.S. hurricane — tossed oyster boats 500 yards and across the highway. In the past decade, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, over-harvesting and a battle for fresh water with up-the-stream Atlanta — dubbed the “water wars” — have reduced the once-booming oyster industry to a shell of its former self. Many felt the oysters would one day come back if given proper time, and millions of dollars have been spent rebuilding the bay in the past three years. After this latest storm, however, optimism for the bivalve’s return to prominence is in short supply among current and former oystermen, even if hope isn’t.
“Paying it forward: Florida man joins mission to help hurricane victims” via Eileen Kelly of the Florida Times-Union — Tyler Gay had been on vacation in Philadelphia with his girlfriend and her family as many Panhandle residents were packing up and dodging Hurricane Michael’s path. At the airport, Gay learned his connecting flight back to Tallahassee was canceled. So he flew to the Panhandle, the place where he grew up. He had no idea of the approaching storm. He said he got distracted by his vacation and wasn’t paying attention to the news. When he learned of the hurricane’s path, Gay and his family got a few sandbags, bolted a piece of plywood to the front window of his brother’s townhouse and pulled the couches close together in the family room. And they waited. After the storm, Gay went back to Tallahassee but only long enough to collect money, sending an email to about 100 colleagues about the devastation in his hometown and how he was going back to help. The information technology worker borrowed a pickup and filled it with medical supplies, soup, water, apples, chips, sandwiches, military MREs and tarps. Gay picked up a chainsaw, a hatchet, and gasoline and set out on a mission.
“FSU Panama City campus to reopen next week” via the News Service of Florida — The university said in a news release that it has made “significant progress” in repairing damage from Hurricane Michael. The campus is tentatively scheduled to reopen Oct. 29. “Repairing and reopening the Panama City campus is a critical step,” university President John Thrasher said in a prepared statement. “But the toughest part is, and will continue to be, helping the members of our FSU family impacted by the storm get back to life as normal. For a great number of our students and employees, especially those in Panama City and the surrounding areas, life as normal is still a long way off. We’re doing everything we can to help them get back to what will inevitably be a new normal.”
— TWEET, TWEET —
WATCH: After Hurricane Michael rampaged through Florida, local oyster farmer Cainnon Gregg thought he was lucky the storm hadn't wiped out all of his gear. But as he opens bag after bag, he discovers a much bigger loss than he – or anyone – expected. https://t.co/DGLVJjfKaz
— NBC News (@NBCNews) October 23, 2018
— STATEWIDE —
“Study: Puerto Ricans in Florida after storm below 50,000” via Mike Schneider of The Associated Press — A new study released this month by the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research suggests that between 30,000 and 50,000 islanders settled in Florida in the past year. Researchers reached this estimate by comparing passenger flight data between Puerto Rico and Florida with migration data from the U.S. Census. Earlier estimates from the University of Florida and from Hunter College had put the number above 50,000 people. The new study says there appeared to be large flows of Puerto Ricans to Florida in the immediate months after Maria made landfall in September 2017. But flight data also suggest there was a strong return flow in January, followed by smaller flows back to the island in subsequent months.
“Rick Scott denied state played a role in FIU bridge collapse. Records indicate otherwise.” via the Miami Herald — The governor’s administration has said its role in the Florida International University bridge was limited to issuing traffic permits, conducting a “routine preliminary review” and acting as a “pass-through” for federal funding. It also said an FDOT engineer was unable to listen to a voice message describing cracks that were forming at the structure’s north end because he was out of the office on assignment. The message was left by one of the bridge’s private contractors two days before the newly built span fell onto Southwest Eighth Street, killing six people. In fact, the FDOT engineer, Thomas Andres, was present in the office on March 15. And nearly two years before the collapse, that same engineer expressed concerns in writing to the bridge’s design-build team that its design left it vulnerable to cracking. Andres’ deep familiarity with the plans suggests the state played a far more significant role than it has so far acknowledged.
“Workforce quality tops small biz agenda in Florida Chamber survey” via Florida Politics — Florida’s small businesses are most concerned about the quality of the state’s workforce as voters prepare to pick their next Governor Nov. 6, according to survey results released Monday. At the same time, the Chamber issued a guide showing that Republican DeSantis ticks every box on the organization’s issues checklist. Democrat Gillum doesn’t check any. It was the eighth quarter running that workforce skills ranked as small business’ top concern. And it led by a considerable margin — 26 percent, compared to the next ranked concern, government regulations, at 9 percent. Access to capital and economic uncertainty tied, at 8 percent each; followed by “lawsuit abuse,” taxes, and health care costs, all at 6 percent. Confidence in the state’s direction was up compared to the third quarter, to 59 percent. Some 48 percent of respondents expected to hire in the next six months, up from 45 percent last quarter. Forty-three percent expected to invest in plants or equipment, down from 49 percent one year ago.
“Tort reform group slams Florida for ‘excessive’ litigation” via Florida Politics — The state loses more than $11.8 billion and 126,000 jobs each year to “excessive” litigation, according to an analysis released Monday by the Florida Justice Reform Institute. The trend most hurts the retail sector, at the cost of more than 39,413 jobs, followed by business services, at 20,237, and health services, at 17,452, according to research conducted for Citizens Against Lawsuit Abuse, another tort reform organization. The analysis claims more than $7.5 billion in lost personal income, including wages, interest and rents — more than $357 for every person in Florida. Additionally, such litigation trims almost $615 million from annual state revenues and $516 million for local government. “These findings detail how Florida’s lawsuit abuse climate is holding back our economy and costing every person real money,” institute President William Large said.
“Michael Dunn resigns from Lakeland City Commission” via John Chambliss of the Lakeland Ledger — Dunn has resigned four days after he was charged with second-degree murder for fatally shooting an alleged shoplifter. Dunn, 47, had been a commissioner since January after defeating challenger Larry Durrence in a runoff election. Dunn was indicted by a grand jury on Friday for killing Christobal Lopez, 50, on Oct. 3 at his business, the Vets Army Navy Surplus Store at 819 N. Florida Ave. “It is with a heavy heart that I submit this letter to you,” Dunn wrote. His wife delivered the letter to City Hall on Monday afternoon. “Being born and raised in Lakeland, this city means a great deal to me and always will,” Dunn wrote. “Thank you to the residents of Lakeland for having given me the opportunity to serve.”
“Rural boundary segregates races in Seminole, River Cross developer’s lawsuit claims” via Steven Hudak of the Orlando Sentinel — Former state legislator Chris Dorworth, whose company proposed building 600 single-family homes and 500 apartments in rural east Seminole County, has sued the county in federal court, saying its voter-approved rural boundary and county commissioners’ refusal to rezone 670 acres for the River Cross mega-development violate the Fair Housing Act. The lawsuit claims the boundary has “a clear and negative disparate impact on racial minorities … denying them their rights to housing.” “Seminole County’s actions perpetuate a history of residential racial segregation in Seminole County …” by limiting development, according to the lawsuit, which asks U.S. District Judge Anne Conway to order the county to get rid of the rural boundary, established in 2004 through a vote of residents.
“Bidder steps up to purchase CareSync’s assets from liquidation” via Veronica Brezina-Smith of the Tampa Bay Business Journal — The Nashville, Tennessee-based Vatica Health Inc., a health care technology solutions provider, is the stalking horse bidder and has offered $1 million for the assets of CareSync, which filed for an assignment for benefit of creditors in July to liquidate its assets. Vatica, if approved and being the best bidder, would obtain CareSync’s online health platform, related intellectual property, data and documentation, and certain accounts receivable, according to county documents. Joseph Luzinski, the assignee for the benefit of creditors of CareSync, filed an emergency motion with the Thirteenth Judicial Circuit Court for Hillsborough County Oct. 16 to approve the bidding and sales procedure and authorize the sale of purchased assets to Vatica Health, subject to higher and better offers. The court hearing is scheduled for early Oct. 23.
What Gray Rohrer is reading: “A 14-year-long oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico verges on becoming one of the worst in U.S. history” via Darryl Fears of The Washington Post — Between 300 and 700 barrels of oil per day have been spewing from a site 12 miles off the Louisiana coast since 2004, when an oil-production platform owned by Taylor Energy sank in a mudslide triggered by Hurricane Ivan. Many of the wells have not been capped, and federal officials estimate that the spill could continue through this century. With no fix in sight, the Taylor offshore spill is threatening to overtake BP’s Deepwater Horizon disaster as the largest ever. As oil continues to spoil the Gulf, the Trump administration is proposing the largest expansion of leases for the oil and gas industry, with the potential to open nearly the entire outer continental shelf to offshore drilling. That includes the Atlantic coast, where drilling hasn’t happened in more than a half-century and where hurricanes hit with double the regularity of the Gulf.
“Pasco to promote itself as Florida’s Sports Coast” via CT Bowen of the Tampa Bay Times — Visit Pasco, the county’s tourism agency, is poised to rebrand Pasco as Florida’s Sports Coast to capitalize on its sports facilities, outdoor adventure offerings and water activities along the coast. “Our goal is to find things that are most relevant about Pasco County and the things that are most different about Pasco County and package that to draw tourists,’’ said Andy Jorishie, managing director of the Zimmerman Agency in Tallahassee, which is leading the rebranding effort for $45,000 as part of a $326,000 contract with the county. The agency briefed the Tourist Development Council, and the full county commission is expected to consider the branding and marketing plan next week.
— OPINIONS —
“Blake Dowling: Reflections on the storm” via Florida Politics — Why is the national news not covering this issue like they have superstorms in years past? There are people who have run out of money, died in the storm, looting is happening, and in our community, it seems as if everyone I know helped in some way. But it doesn’t feel like that from the outside. And when I say outside, I mean the media. If you want to see what help looks like, come to Tallahassee. It’s ground zero for the recovery effort. It was a terrible storm. Lives have been lost; homes and businesses destroyed. If you want to help, consider giving to the Red Cross (www.redcross.org) or contact your local elected official or law enforcement office as there are massive recovery efforts underway and North Florida needs a helping hand. Prayers to all affected and to all those who have answered the call to help.
“Joe Henderson: No tax for tracks, or anything else in Hillsborough” via Florida Politics — No tax for tracks. No tax for anything. What else is new? The grumpy demographic in Hillsborough County has weighed in on the All For Transportation referendum and guess what? They’re agin’ it! I know you’re shocked … It was predictable. It was adorned with a picture of Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn and Tampa Bay Lightning owner Jeff Vinik. Both men heavily support the referendum, so they were trolled with the label of Bob “Billions” Buckhorn and Jeff “Vision” Vinik. Ouch. That hurts. They didn’t mention the more than 77,000 people who signed petitions to get this issue on the ballot because a majority of the county commissioners couldn’t bring themselves to do it themselves.
— MOVEMENTS —
Personnel note: Andrew Atterbury joins POLITICO Florida — Tallahassee bureau chief Matt Dixon announced Atterbury’s hiring Monday on Twitter. He replaces Daniel Ducassi as the site’s education policy reporter. Atterbury was most recently education reporter for TCPalm, covering the Treasure Coast counties of Martin, St. Lucie and Indian River. He previously covered education and city politics in West Texas. Atterbury graduated Angelo State University in San Angelo, Texas in 2012. He also spent 5 ½ years as a Starbucks barista, according to his LinkedIn page.
Gunster adds another attorney amid Tampa growth — The full-service business law firm added Jounice Nealy-Brown to its business litigation practice as an associate in the firm’s Tampa office. Nealy-Brown previously was a newspaper journalist, sales and marketing executive, and strategic corporate communications director at the Tampa Bay Times. Upon graduation from law school, she served as a law clerk for Judges Anthony E. Porcelli and Mary S. Scriven, both with the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida, Tampa Division. “We are thrilled to have Jounice join our growing team in Tampa,” Tampa office managing shareholder Bill Schifino said. “Her experience both in journalism and the corporate sector brings a unique perspective to the firm and how she will work with clients.”
— ALOE —
“Disney roller coaster patent hints at Epcot ride” via the Orlando Business Journal — The patent would help with the storytelling process in rides. A new patent from The Walt Disney Co. has many fans curious if it’s for the new Guardians of the Galaxy ride at Epcot. The patent appears to provide an enhancement to the coaster ride car that includes being able to rotate a car on a horizontal axis while also providing the power the system needs to perform those turns throughout the ride. Of course, there’s no guarantee that this patent is used on rides. However, it gives insight into what ride inventors are researching toward making better attractions.
“Florida retailers expect scary good Halloween spending” via Florida Politics — According to a survey by the National Retail Federation, an affiliate of the Florida Retail Federation, consumers are expected to spend some frighteningly large sums celebrating the eve of All-Hallows — nearly enough to crack the all-time record of $9.1 billion. NRF estimates the average consumer taking part in Halloween to spend more than four Jacksons and a five-spot, which would make for a nationwide rake of $9 billion at the cash register. And FRF head R. Scott Shalley said the Sunshine State is expected to post similarly strong results.
“Uber ambitiously eyes 2021 for food-delivery drones launch” via Greg Bensinger and Andy Pasztor of The Wall Street Journal — The San Francisco company is seeking an operations executive who can help make delivery drones functional as soon as next year and commercially operational in multiple markets by 2021, according to a job posting that appeared on Uber’s website. App-reliant Uber has limited experience developing hardware beyond its nascent electric scooters and its equipment for self-driving vehicles, an as-yet unproven technology. The drone executive will “enable safe, legal, efficient and scalable flight operations,” according to the job listing, which refers to UberExpress, an internal name used for the drone delivery operation within its UberEats prepared-food delivery unit.
What Kevin Sweeny is reading: “Growing up surrounded by books could have powerful, lasting effect on the mind” via Brigit Katz of Smithsonian.com — Growing up with few books in the home resulted in below average literacy levels. Being surrounded by 80 books boosted the levels to average, and literacy continued to improve until libraries reached about 350 books, at which point the literacy rates leveled off. The researchers observed similar trends when it came to numeracy; the effects were not as pronounced with information communication technology tests, but skills did improve with increased numbers of books. So, what are the implications of the new study? Take, for instance, adults who grew up with hardly any books in the home, but went on to obtain a university degree in comparison to an adult who grew up with a large home library, but only had nine years of schooling. The study found that both of their literacy levels were roughly average. “So, literacy-wise, bookish adolescence makes up for a good deal of educational advantage,” the study authors write.
Happy birthday belatedly to Ramba Consulting’s Cameron Yarbrough and state Rep. Jim Boyd. Also celebrating today are good guys Brian Rimes and John Sowinski, as well as state Rep. Patricia Hawkins-Williams.
