Staff Reports
Dems seeking first delegation majority in 30 years
On Election Day, candidates, campaign staff, media, pundits and even large numbers of voters are waiting for final results. What will the House and Senate look like come January of 2019?
While Democrats are favored to take control of the House for the first time since 2011, Republicans are favored to hold onto the Senate. Gov. Rick Scott is hoping to help increase that margin by beating Sen. Bill Nelson.
While waiting for the polls to close, some have time to think about what the Florida delegation will look like when the night is over. If there is a big Democratic turnout on Election Day, they could conceivably pick up a handful of House seats that would create something historic.
If they pick up three seats, the delegation would have a Democratic majority for the first time since the 100th Congress (1987-89), where they had a 12-7 advantage and had two Democratic Senators in the outgoing Lawton Chiles and Bob Graham.
That changed beginning with the 1988 election when Democratic Rep. Bill Chappell was defeated, while in 1989 Democratic Rep. James Grant switched to the GOP and Rep. Claude Pepper passed away on May 30, ultimately leading to the election of Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
That same election, Republican Rep. Connie Mack III narrowly defeated Democratic Rep. Buddy MacKay for the Senate seat vacated by Chiles. The House seat vacated by MacKay was won by Republican Cliff Stearns.
Will the three-decade GOP majority come to an end on Tuesday night? The 16-11 Republican advantage is clearly in jeopardy thanks to five strong women candidates put forward by Democrats.
Democrat Donna Shalala is slightly favored to defeat Republican Maria Elvira Salazar and flip District 27, which includes Miami Beach and Coral Gables. In District 26, Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has a registration advantage similar to CD 27 and is looking to unseat moderate two-term Republican Carlos Curbelo in a district that includes western Miami Dade and all of Monroe County.
District 25, which is made up of northwestern Miami Dade and eastern Collier County, is seeing a strong challenge for Democrat Mary Barzee Flores as she looks to defeat veteran incumbent Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart. In District 26, Lauren Baer has benefitted from large sums of money as she tries to unseat first-term Republican Rep. Brian Mast in a district includes northern Palm Beach County (Palm Beach Gardens, Jupiter) as well as Martin and St. Lucie County and has a 20,000-voter registration advantage for Republicans.
Three weeks ago, few were paying attention to District 15, which covers eastern Hillsborough (Plant City), northwestern Polk and southern Lake County, but election watchers now know Kristen Carlson has a chance to defeat state Rep. Ross Spano and flip the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Rep. Dennis Ross. In District 6, Nancy Soderberg is running close with Michael Waltz in the race to succeed gubernatorial nominee Ron DeSantis.
Early voting has been strong for both parties around the state, but the unknown is the impact of independents. Polls, with just a few exceptions, have shown Democrats a double-digit advantage among this large voting group.
With retirements and the possibility of defeating incumbents on Tuesday, the delegation could look significantly different, not matter what, when the next Congress takes the oath of office in January.
Key races to watch nationally
Holland & Knight’s Public Policy & Regulation Group has released its comprehensive list of races to watch for the Senate, House and governors sorted in order of poll closing time.
According to the memo, here is what you should keep an eye on:
SENATE
For Democrats to control the Senate, they need to get to 51 seats (Independents are included in the Democratic total) which means they need to hold ALL their contested seats in states won by Trump in 2016: Indiana, Florida, Missouri, West Virginia and Montana. In addition, they will need to flip two of the four Republican seats: Arizona, Tennessee, Texas or Nevada.
Republicans only need 50 seats to retain control the Senate, since Vice President Mike Pence has the 51st vote in event of a tie.
HOUSE
Most of the contested seats in the U.S. House are currently held by Republicans. As of Nov. 1, 2018, Real Clear Politics breaks the House down as follows:
— D seats — 203
— R seats — 198
— Toss-ups — 34
Key states to watch on election night are:
— New Jersey (moderate Republicans retiring)
— Pennsylvania (redistricting favors Democrats)
— Virginia (Republican seats in the toss-up column that SHOULD have been put away by now)
— Minnesota (2 Democratic seats and 2 Republican seats in danger)
— California (retirements and district demographic changes)
GOVERNORS
Redistricting for the U.S. House takes place in 2022, using figures collected from the 2020 census. Although state legislators have a role in drawing congressional district lines, in most states the governor has to approve those lines. This is a crucial factor in party control.
Currently, Republicans control 33 state houses, 16 by Democrats and one Independent.
For a deep dive of crucial races nationwide (broken down by poll closing times) click here.
Current, former Presidents stump in Florida
Several states have competitive statewide races, but Florida has two neck-and-neck races, which explains why the current and former President of the United States was in the state campaigning for their party’s ticket.
On Friday, former President Barack Obama was in Miami in a get-out-the-vote rally for Nelson, gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum and other down-ballot races. Trump made his second visit to Florida in three days with Saturday night’s stop in Pensacola for Scott, DeSantis and other Republicans.
Obama bantered with a couple of hecklers, blasted Trump and ripped into Scott on the issue of health care. Specifically, he targeted a Republican vulnerability on coverage of pre-existing conditions.
“Florida, we can’t let Rick Scott become the deciding vote for your pre-existing conditions protections,” he said
After praising Gillum and the other Democrats, Obama implored the crowd to “get some souls to the polls.” That apparently worked as Democrats had a big weekend and took the lead in early votes cast heading into Tuesday.
Donald Trump used an airport hangar as a venue, arriving on Air Force One accompanied by Scott and DeSantis. They were introduced by Vice-President Mike Pence, who had been in Georgia earlier.
All statewide candidates were in attendance and spoke, with Rep. Matt Gaetz of Fort Walton Beach warming up the crowd by introducing Trump as “the greatest jobs President that God has created.”
Trump cited Scott for his actions surrounding Hurricane Michael, then went after Nelson and Gillum.
“In Rick’s case, he’s going against somebody that’s falling asleep,” Trump said. “And in Ron’s case, he’s going against somebody that’s got a lot of energy, but he runs one of the worst, one of the biggest problem cities anywhere in the country.”
Final polls give Nelson an advantage
Scott and Nelson are waiting out Tuesday monitoring turnout and perhaps wondering if the final polls are accurate in what could be the final campaigns of their political careers. Nelson is certainly hoping they are.
The three-term Democrat carried a 7-point lead into Election Day according to Quinnipiac, and four-point margins according to St. Pete Polls and NBC/Marist.
Quinnipiac gives Nelson a 13-point advantage among independents, but Scott backers question the poll using 25 percent independents in their sample, when independents are making up 19 percent of the electorate. It also has a turnout model favoring Democrats by five points, which does not match history and 2018 early voting.
The NBC survey has Trump, DeSantis and Scott all underwater in their favorability ratings, with Nelson and Gillum in the positive range. Among those who already voted, Nelson has an 8-point advantage.
St. Pete Polls gives both candidates something encouraging and something to fret. Among those who have already voted, Nelson has a nearly 13-point advantage.
For those who have not yet, and are planning to vote, Scott leads by 15 points. With 2018 looking more like a presidential election year (more than 5 million already voted), perhaps around 30 percent of the final votes will be cast on Tuesday.
All the questions will soon be answered.
Rubio calls for tougher sanctions on Iran
With the U.S. now reimposing sanctions on Iran lifted by the Obama-era nuclear deal, the country is taking the opportunity to celebrate the 1979 takeover of the U.S. Embassy. With that event serving as a backdrop, many in Congress are supportive of the decision by Trump to turn up the pressure on the regime.
Others, such as Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, believe the Trump administration needs to go further. While the U.S. wishes for Iran be economically cut off from the world, the order grants waivers for some allies to keep trading with Iran.
“Sanctions waivers being given to key purchasers of Iranian oil, most alarmingly China, give Iran a financial reprieve, and should be eliminated as soon as possible,” Rubio said in a statement. “I also urge the United States not to waive any sanctions aimed at penalizing foreign individuals, entities, or governments engaged in civil nuclear cooperation with Iran.”
In August, Rubio, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 14 of their Republican colleagues, wrote a letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in August demanding that all ties between Iran and the SWIFT system be severed. The move, if undertaken, would disconnect the Central Bank of Iran from the world interbank telecommunications network.
“Maximum pressure means not only restoring all of the sanctions measures that President Obama had wrongly suspended under the flawed Iran nuclear deal, but also going further to expand sanctions on the regime in Tehran,” Rubio added.
Diaz-Balart praised the sanctions and did not yet call for more stringent measures.
“Today’s sanctions place tough restrictions on Iran’s lucrative oil, financial, and shipping sectors,” he said in a statement. “By restricting these transactions, the Trump administration is cutting off resources that otherwise could be used to fund the oppression of the Iranian people, as well as denying resources that could support anti-American activities and terrorism around the world, such as Iran’s assassination attempts thwarted in France and Denmark.
Delegation blasts VA dog experiments
A controversial, and many say immoral, practice by the Veterans Affairs (VA) of conducting fatal experiments on dogs is drawing harsh criticism from Congress. Three of the most outspoken are Florida Republicans.
The VA claims the studies can possibly lead to discoveries that may help veterans suffering from spinal cord or breathing problems. Congress had previously placed restrictions on the practice.
“I’m calling for an immediate investigation into the Veterans Affairs Dept. for resuming cruel and inhumane experiments on dogs,” said Longboat Key Republican Vern Buchanan, co-chair of the House Animal Protection Caucus. “It’s time to end this canine house of horrors where the spinal cords of dogs are severed to test their cough reflex.”
Over the past year, reports of experiments on dog hearts, brains and spinal cords in different facilities. The VA said dogs are the “only viable models” for the experiments.
“The VA has not executed what we wanted as intent, which is to bring this to an end in its entirety,” said Mast. “We will keep up the pressure until these invasive, painful and deadly experiments on dogs stop completely.”
A bill signed by Trump earlier this year said such tests must be “directly approved” by the VA Secretary. Gaetz, who sponsored the legislation along with Mast, Buchanan and others, also called out the VA.
“Troubling report about the VA continuing some highly questionable and cruel dog testing,” Gaetz said. “Proud to co-sponsor the PUPPERS Act to stop this waste and abuse.”
Conservative immigration reform group grades delegation
An immigration reform group is grading members of Congress on their stands concerning both legal and illegal immigration. NumbersUSA, which seeks a finite number of immigrants into the USA each year, has given a report card to the delegation.
Not surprisingly, Republicans score much higher than Democrats.
Gaetz, Bill Posey of Rockledge, Daniel Webster of Clermont and DeSantis earned an A+ while Ted Yoho of Gainesville was awarded an A-. Those members are given the “true reformer” tag.
The remainder of the GOP members, including Rubio, received between a B+ and B- except for South Florida Representatives Curbelo, Ros-Lehtinen, and Diaz-Balart, who were all awarded grades of F-.
All 11 Democratic House members, as well as Nelson, also received an F-.
“The Grade Cards evaluate each member based on all committee and floor votes and co-sponsorships since 1990 that are on their record and that have or would have affected the numerical level of legal and illegal immigration,” the group noted. “NumbersUSA grants the ‘True Reformer’ label only to those who have committed themselves to all of the immigration issues listed on our Grade Cards. These Grade Cards can be very helpful tools leading into elections.”
Republican Rep. Francis Rooney was in the news in Southwest Florida last week for two reasons. Not surprisingly, both involved the midterm elections.
On Thursday, he appeared on Fox Business News with Stuart Varney and responded to a question about the Florida governor’s race by referring to Gillum as an “existential threat to the future of Florida.”
Delegation Democrats were outraged, especially Rep. Ted Deutch of Boca Raton, who said it was Republicans who were more dangerous.
“The real threat in these last few days of this campaign is this fear mongering and inflammatory language from Congressman Rooney, President Trump and other politicians bent on dividing our community and our state, Deutch said.
On Thursday, Rooney’s opponent for the District 19 House seat, David Holden, accused the first-term Republican of violating House campaign rules for a mailer highlighting his legislative accomplishments and positions. The piece was paid for by Rooney’s House account, which may violate the prohibition of mailers during the final 90 days of a campaign in which an incumbent is seeking re-election.
“We have our policy differences, but this is a direct campaign violation that needs to be dealt with swiftly and decisively,” Holden said.
House regulations prohibit taxpayers funding “any unsolicited communication of substantially identical content to 500 or more persons” during the final three months. The Office of Congressional ethics and the House Commission on Congressional Mailing Standards each received a complaint.
Rooney said that no matter the time of year “we are constantly in contact with our constituents to ensure my record is clear.”
Inadvertent violations typically result in the member of Congress simply reimbursing the House for the cost of the mailing. More serious violations can result in members losing a portion of their allowance, or referral to the House for further action, according to the Congressional Research Service.
Curbelo meets with teenager who threatened him
Nearly two weeks ago, a 19-year-old man threatened the life of Curbelo via Twitter. This occurred on the same day a group of packages containing devices were delivered to prominent Democrats, liberal activists and CNN.
Curbelo responded by using his Twitter account.
“Political intoxication is making some Americans more prone to both verbal and physical violence,” he said. “It’s a serious crisis and we all have to do our part to put an end to it. Not sure what’s more disturbing; the fact that someone tweeted this or that 4 accounts liked it.”
Pierre Alejandro Verges-Castro, 19, was arrested by the FBI in conjunction with Capitol Police and the Homestead Police Department, according to law enforcement officials.
In what was described a “tour de civility,” Curbelo met with Verges-Castro, saying the teenager had fallen “into the trap of violent political speech and hateful expression” but did not plan to actually follow through on his threat. Verges-Castro previously apologized to Curbelo.
House Speaker Paul Ryan praised Curbelo saying in a tweet the two-term Congressman was displaying “leadership” for “trying to bring people together. We need to see more of this in politics today.”
Nigerian opposition party hires Ballard Partners
As the U.S. midterm elections wind down and the African nation of Nigeria is set to conduct theirs, a familiar American lobbying firm will be playing a role. The country’s main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), has retained Ballard Partners to assist them in the February national elections and beyond.
The contract with Ballard’s firm calls for working with a “special focus in the coming months on maintaining political and security conditions free of intimidation and interference in order to ensure the success and fairness of Nigeria’s national election for president in 2019.” Ballard Partners will also advise the PDP on enhancing US-Nigeria relations.
Ballard’s firm will find some familiarity with the Nigerian elections. In 2015, a presidential candidate was the victim of hacked emails that were injected into the campaign.
The firm at the center of releasing the emails was the UK firm Cambridge Analytica, the company involved with the recent Facebook data breach.
The contract between the PDP and Ballard Partners is worth $1.1 million for one year. The firm’s Washington, D.C. office also represents foreign interests in Qatar, Turkey, Maldives, Dominican Republic and Mali.
Former Scott adviser tapped to head NEA
A former key adviser to Scott is about to become Chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) after receiving an appointment from Trump. Mary Anne Carter, who briefly served in the Scott administration after running his transition team, was officially nominated to a four-year term, the White House announced Thursday.
Carter has been unofficially in charge of the N.E.A. as the senior deputy chairman since Trump’s transition. She does not possess a strong background in the arts but has won praise within the agency for being an advocate for the department.
“I am honored and humbled to be nominated for this position, Carter said.
In addition to serving in the administration, Carter was the executive director of Scott’s Conservatives for Patients’ Rights organization, which was an early opponent of the Affordable Care Act.
The nomination now moves to the Health, Education, Labor, Pension Committee in the Senate for a confirmation hearing.
On this day in the headlines
November 6, 2000 — Texas Gov. George W. Bush made one last swing through Florida before the election, joining other Republicans running for office at a rally near Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Entertaining the crowd before Bush spoke was country music star Hank Williams, Jr., Las Vegas legend Wayne Newton and actress Bo Derek.
“When I put my hand on the bible in January of 2001, I will swear not only to uphold the laws of this great land, but in order to call upon the best for this country, I will also swear to uphold the honor and integrity of the office to which I have been elected, so help me God,” Bush said. While Bush was in Florida, Vice-President Al Gore was crisscrossing four states campaigning for votes.
November 6, 2008 — An unusually heavy turnout of black voters, and Hispanic voters turning unusually Democratic, helped lead President-elect Obama to a narrow win in Florida on Tuesday. In fact, Obama may be the first Democrat in modern history to win the Hispanic vote in Florida.
According to exit polls, 13 percent of those casting ballots were black, compared with 12 percent in 2004 and 10 percent in 2000. Obama won Florida by only 204,000 votes but had a margin of more than 520,000 votes in the three big counties in South Florida.
