Peter Schorsch
All eyes are on Florida. Most of them only care how the state goes at the top of the ticket, but there’s much more at stake than 29 electoral votes.
There will also be 27 congressional elections, 21 state Senate contests, and more than 100 state House contests. Of course, not all of them will be nail biters — that’s where Florida Politics comes in.
Our reporters have been hard at work producing the most comprehensive coverage of Tuesday’s election, from the top of the ballot to the bottom.
One of the top stories going live this morning is on the race for Florida’s 26th Congressional District, which is likely the Republicans’ best shot at flipping a seat this cycle. U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Giménez have each pumped millions into ads, and it’s a true tossup.
Over in Florida’s 15th Congressional District is the Democrats’ best chance for a pickup. Democrat Alan Cohn faces Republican Scott Franklin, who defeated disgraced U.S. Rep. Ross Spano in the primary. As it stands, Franklin has the edge, but the race is close.
And in Pinellas, the race for Florida’s 13th Congressional District is entertaining even if it’s not competitive. There, Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist is up against newcomer Anna Paulina Luna, a Trumpy influencer type whose gun-forward campaign photos helped get the 31-year-old Air Force veteran national attention.
Those are just the first few on the schedule. Stay tuned throughout the day to get the latest info on the most-watched races in the state.
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“Final St. Pete Polls survey of Florida: Donald Trump, Joe Biden deadlocked” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Whatever happens in the rest of the country, Florida remains deadlocked heading into the presidential election Tuesday. In its final survey of the presidential cycle, St. Pete Polls finds Biden up one percentage point in the Sunshine State. If the election were held today, 49% of likely Florida voters would bubble for Biden and 48% would pick Trump. The poll, taken Oct. 29-30, found 75% of respondents have already cast their ballots. Of those who already voted, Biden leads 55% to Trump’s 43%. But expect a shift on Election Day as day-of votes come in. About 64% of voters still planning to vote want the President reelected to a second term.
— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —
Tweet, tweet:
Who let all these people into my basement? pic.twitter.com/E17SPqmXib
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 31, 2020
—@RonBrownstein: In every way possible, from his signal he’ll fire Fauci, to attacks on govs, to how he holds his rallies without masks or social distancing, Trump is telling Americans that he has given up on protecting them from the virus. And that that’s what they can expect in a second term
—@AshleyRParker: Underscoring the true uncertainty in Trumpworld, I just asked a Trump adviser for their gut sense on what will happen on Election Day: “If you put a gun to my head, I’d say, ‘Shoot,'” this person said, helplessly.
—@RickKlein: a point Jason Miller made this morning: “President Trump will be ahead on election night, probably getting 280 electoral somewhere in that range, and then they’re going to try to steal it back after the election.”
—@Redistrict: Biggest mystery at the moment: will the Sun Belt “red wall” crumble on Tuesday?
Tweet, tweet:
Can someone please explain basic economics to the Chief Financial Officer for the 3rd largest state in the United States?? C’mon @JimmyPatronis, seriously? Here’s some light reading for you: https://t.co/QOs5AB7fVf https://t.co/g3REm6Rie5
— Jason Pizzo (@senpizzo) November 2, 2020
—@JimmyPatronis: It is sad that you want higher gas prices for your constituents. The challenges we are dealing with are enough without you advocating for higher cost of living for Florida’s families.\
—@SenPizzo: No, @JimmyPatronis, it’s sad that thousands of Floridians still contact me, desperately waiting for their unemployment – like single mothers w/ cancer who can’t pay for chemo, suicidal dads, families living in their cars – while you’re out trying to get a selfie w/ POTUS.
Tweet, tweet:
Scariest Halloween costume I could think of: @SteveKornacki projecting an Electoral College tie. pic.twitter.com/UWnYC0Ptz5
— 𝔫𝔞𝔤𝔶 𝔪𝔦𝔫𝔞𝔧 🗳 (@keithlnagy) October 31, 2020
—@TheSulk: Thank god Halloween’s over and I can finally just rela — “JUST HEAR THOSE SLEIGH BELLS RINGIN’ AND JING JING JINGLING TOO!!”
— DAYS UNTIL —
2020 General Election — 1; NBA 2020-21 training camp — 8; FITCon Policy Conference begins — 10; The Masters begins — 10; NBA draft — 16; Pixar’s “Soul” premieres — 18; College basketball season slated to begin — 23; NBA 2020-21 opening night — 30; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 30; the Electoral College votes — 42; “Death on the Nile” premieres — 45; “Wonder Woman 1984” rescheduled premiere — 53; Greyhound racing ends in Florida — 59; the 2021 Inauguration — 79; Super Bowl LV in Tampa — 97; “A Quiet Place Part II” rescheduled premiere — 108; “Black Widow” rescheduled premiere — 122; “No Time to Die” premieres (rescheduled) — 151; “Top Gun: Maverick” rescheduled premiere — 242; Disney’s “Shang Chi and The Legend of The Ten Rings” premieres — 249; new start date for 2021 Olympics — 263; “Jungle Cruise” premieres — 271; Disney’s “Eternals” premieres — 368; “Spider-Man Far From Home” sequel premieres — 371; Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” premieres — 403; “Thor: Love and Thunder” premieres — 467; “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” premieres — 520; “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” sequel premieres — 701.
— THE MODELS —
To get a reasonable idea of how the presidential race is playing out, state polling is the way to go — particularly in battleground states like Florida. Some outlets offer a poll of polls, gauging how Trump or Biden are performing in select areas, then averaging the surveys to get a general idea of who leads nationwide. Sunburn will be updating these forecasts as they come in:
CNN Poll of Polls: As of Sunday, the CNN average still has Biden at 52% compared to an equally steady 42% for Trump. The CNN Poll of Polls tracks the national average in the presidential race. They include the most recent national telephone surveys meeting CNN’s standards for reporting and which measure the views of registered or likely voters. The poll of polls does not have a margin of sampling error.
FiveThirtyEight.com: As of Sunday, Biden remains with an 89 in 100 chance of winning compared to Trump, who drops to a 10 in 100 shot. FiveThirtyEight also ranked individual states by the likelihood of delivering a decisive vote for the winning candidate in the Electoral College: Pennsylvania leads with 38%, while Florida is second at 10.7%. Wisconsin is now third with 6.7%. Other states include Arizona (6.4%), North Carolina (5.8%), Michigan (5.6%), Georgia (4.4%) and Nevada (3.7%).
PredictIt: As of Sunday, the PredictIt trading market has Biden dropping to $0.66 a share, with Trump rising to $0.40.
Real Clear Politics: As of Sunday, the RCP average of General Election top battleground state polling has Biden leading Trump 51.1% to 43.9%. The RCP General Election polling average has Biden at +7.2 points ahead.
The Economist: As of Sunday, their model predicts that Biden is “very likely” to beat Trump in the Electoral College. The model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on Election Day. According to The Economist, Biden’s chances of winning the electoral college better than 19 in 20 (96%) versus Trump with less than 1 in 20 (4%). They still give Biden a greater than 99% chance (better than 19 in 20) of winning the popular vote, with Trump at less than 1% (less than 1 in 20).
— PRESIDENTIAL —
“Trump’s plan to declare premature victory” via Jonathan Swan of Axios — Trump has told confidants he’ll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he’s “ahead,” according to three sources familiar with his private comments. That’s even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania. Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won. For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.
“The Trump campaign’s chaotic closing strategy” via McKay Coppins of The Atlantic — In the coming days, thousands of pro-Trump poll watchers are set to fan out across battleground states, smartphones in hand, and post themselves outside voting locations to hunt for evidence of fraud. This “army” has been coached on what to look for, and instructed to record anything that seems suspicious. The Trump campaign says these videos will be used in potential legal challenges; critics say their sole purpose is to intimidate voters. But in recent conversations with a range of unnerved Democrats and researchers, I was offered another scenario: If the President decides to contest the election’s results, his campaign could let loose a blizzard of misleading, decontextualized video clips as “proof” that the vote can’t be trusted.
“As the race enters its final days, and November, no October surprise ever materialized for Trump.” via Shane Goldmacher and Adam Nagourney of The New York Times — Trump began the fall campaign rooting for, and trying to orchestrate, a last-minute surprise that would vault him ahead of Biden. A coronavirus vaccine. A dramatic economic rebound. A blockbuster Justice Department investigation. A grievous misstep by a rival he portrayed as faltering. A scandal involving Biden and his son Hunter Biden. But as the campaign nears an end, and with most national and battleground-state polls showing Trump struggling, the cavalry of an October surprise that helped him overtake Hillary Clinton in 2016 has not arrived.
“‘You can certainly see how he could win’: Why Trump isn’t done yet” via David Siders and Anita Kumar of POLITICO — Trump is polling within striking distance of Biden in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. Republicans are gaining on Democrats in the early vote in Florida. If the President can carry the Sun Belt states he won in 2016 and beat Biden in Pennsylvania, he could hold the White House for four more years. It’s a big “if” resting on a tower of uncertainties. Overall, forecasters put Trump’s odds at about one in 10.
“With Election Day looming, an anxious nation hears rumblings of violence” via Marc Fisher of The Washington Post — On the eve of a presidential election fraught with tension, warning flares are bursting across American skies. From federal and local law enforcement to analysts who track radical groups, the concern is high about the possibility that violence could erupt, especially if the vote count drags on for days without a clear winner. The signals are disturbing: A sharp increase in gun sales. A spike in chatter about a civil war in online forums where right-wing extremists gather. An embrace of violent language by Trump and other leaders. Surveys show an increased willingness by some Americans to see violence as an acceptable tool against political opponents.
“Trump and Biden campaign through Midwest states with ‘red zone’ virus outbreaks.” via Annie Karni, Thomas Kaplan and Michael Cooper of The New York Times — Trump and Biden headed into the final weekend of the presidential campaign barnstorming a series of Midwestern states that will help decide who wins the presidency — and that are all grappling with coronavirus outbreaks so severe that the federal government considers them in the “red zone.” Their differing approaches to the virus came into more vivid relief with each campaign stop. Even as the country reported a record number of coronavirus cases in the past week, Trump insisted on Friday that the disease was not serious. Biden, in Iowa, took the opposite approach.
“Trump confronts his 50% problem” via David Siders and Zach Montellaro of POLITICO — Trump won the presidency with 46% of the popular vote. His approval rating, according to Gallup, has never hit 50%. He remains under 50% in national polling averages. The President’s inability to capture a majority of support sheds light on his extraordinary attempts to limit the number of votes cast across the battleground state map — a massive campaign-within-a-campaign to maximize Trump’s chances of winning a contest in which he’s all but certain to earn less than 50% of the vote. For Trump, however, the math makes sense. In 2016, he won Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — five of this year’s most important swing states — with under 50% of the vote.
“Biden leads Trump by 10 points in final preelection NBC News/WSJ poll” via Mark Murray of NBC News — Biden maintains his double-digit national lead over Trump in the final national poll before the 2020 presidential election, with six-in-10 voters saying the country is on the wrong track, and with a majority disapproving of the president’s handling of the coronavirus. Biden is ahead of Trump nationally by 10 points among registered voters, 52% to 42%, in what has been a remarkably stable race over the course of a tumultuous year in American politics. The former Democratic Vice President’s lead was 11 points in the NBC News/WSJ poll two weeks ago, 53% to 42%.
“Post-ABC polls: Biden has slight lead in Pennsylvania; Florida a tossup” via Dan Balz, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin of The Washington Post — As the presidential race enters its final days, competition remains fierce in two of the most important battleground states, with Biden holding a slight lead over Trump in Pennsylvania and the two candidates in a virtual dead heat in Florida, according to two Washington Post-ABC News polls. Among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Biden is at 51% to Trump’s 44%, and Libertarian Jo Jorgensen is 3%. Biden was leading by 54% to 45% a month ago. While the shift is slight, Biden no longer holds a statistically significant advantage, given the four-point margin of sampling error that applies to each candidates’ support.
“‘People are going to be shocked’: Return of the ‘shy’ Trump voter?” via Zack Stanton of POLITICO — With Nov. 3 racing toward us, it can be tempting to see the 2020 election as a done deal. For months, Biden has consistently and convincingly led Trump in polls. Swing states in the industrial Midwest and Sun Belt appear to be heading Biden’s way, and if you trust the polls, it’s not a leap to imagine him winning 330+ electoral votes. But what if you shouldn’t trust the polls? In 2016, months of national polls confidently showed Clinton ahead and set many Americans up for a shock on Election Night, when the Electoral College tilted decisively in Trump’s favor.
“Trailing in the polls, Trump enlists his administration and co-opts the government to bolster his reelection” via David Nakamura and Paul Sonne of The Washington Post — In the final days of the 2020 election season, Trump has featured his White House press secretary as a star at his campaign rallies, where she has triumphantly joined him onstage. On Saturday, Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump, a senior White House adviser, has stumped for him and posted a stylized photo with uniformed law enforcement officers in Wisconsin, a key battleground. Trump is considering shifting his election night viewing party from the Trump International Hotel to the White House.
“Trump campaign will dominate YouTube homepage through Election Day.” via Daisuke Wakabayashi, Cecilia Kang and Tiffany Hsu of The New York Times — In the final three days of the election, one of the most desirable billboards on the internet, YouTube’s homepage, will be devoted exclusively to promote the reelection of President Trump. The conclusion of a yearlong tug of war between the two presidential campaigns for the ad space on YouTube’s homepage is the front door to the internet’s second-most visited website. The Biden campaign secured the so-called masthead on the days after the presidential debates and the Republican convention. How Google allocates the homepage on important election dates has become a source of tension between the company and the Democratic National Committee.
“2016 nonvoters, a key prize for Biden and Trump, turn out in droves” via Trip Gabriel of The New York Times — With recent electoral history and current polls suggesting that Democrats are likely to make gains in the vote-rich suburbs nearly everywhere, Trump’s path to reelection has always required expanding his support in rural and exurban counties in Pennsylvania, as well as in other industrial states where he squeezed out victories in 2016. Now that early voting is underway, the question of whether he can increase that support is no longer academic. Trump is attracting tens of thousands of voters who sat out 2016.
“Republicans shift from challenging rules to preparing to challenge individual ballots” via Rosalind S. Helderman, Emma Brown and Beth Reinhard of The Washington Post — Republicans have pushed largely unsuccessfully to limit new avenues for voting in the midst of the pandemic. But with next week’s election rapidly approaching, they have shifted their legal strategy in recent days to focus on tactics aimed at challenging ballots one by one, in some cases seeking to discard votes already cast during a swell of early voting. Republicans said they are just trying to make sure the process runs smoothly and the rules are applied fairly, arguing that Democrats have loosened election rules in ways that could confuse voters and invite fraud.
“Trump’s never-ending campaign against the media” via Justin Charity of The Ringer — On Sunday, CBS’s 60 Minutes featured interviews with each of the presidential candidates and their running mates. Norah O’Donnell interviewed Biden and Kamala Harris. Lesley Stahl interviewed Trump and Mike Pence. Three days before the segment aired, Trump tweeted his displeasure with Stahl, calling the interview “FAKE and BIASED” and published unedited footage of it. “Look at the bias, hatred, and rudeness,” Trump wrote in his caption on Facebook. It’s a contentious interview. First, Stahl asks Trump, “Are you ready for some tough questions?” Trump replies, “You don’t ask Biden tough questions.”
“One of the largest surveys of the electorate released preliminary data, offering clues on the eve of the election.” via Giovanni Russonello of The New York Times — The study’s results show that Asian Americans are set to vote for Biden by more than 2-to-1, nearly matching Clinton’s success with this group four years ago. The survey also found that, in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic and the related economic downturn, Biden is overwhelmingly supported by voters who were currently unemployed, those who said they knew someone who had caught the virus, and those who had been laid off within the past year. This year, the survey also tabulated how respondents voted for President four years ago for the first time.
“Joe Biden makes Pennsylvania top priority for a late get-out-the-vote push.” via Shane Goldmacher of The New York Times — Biden’s campaign is making Pennsylvania a top priority for volunteer efforts in the final full weekend of the election, directing supporters from out of state to flood into the critical battleground, including for the door-to-door canvassing that for months the campaign had avoided. The Biden campaign said that volunteers had knocked on more than 350,000 doors on Saturday and made 2 million calls, and sent 1.5 million text messages to voters in the state. Polls have shown Pennsylvania is the closest of the three Rust Belt states that Trump flipped four years ago. And fewer early ballots have been cast in Pennsylvania than other swing states, meaning far more votes are still up for grabs.
“Democrats grow more anxious about Pennsylvania” via Sean Sullivan of The Washington Post — Biden on Saturday prepared to mount a last-minute, two-day blitz of Pennsylvania, amid concern among some local Democrats about a potential late shift that would threaten his narrow advantage there and mirror Trump’s 2016 comeback. Most Democrats still believe Biden will capture Pennsylvania, and he maintains a modest polling lead there. According to elected officials, strategists, and party activists, their confidence has eroded in recent weeks with emerging signs of a tightening contest in the state. Both sides believe the outcome in Pennsylvania will be crucial in determining who wins the White House.
“If Pennsylvania goes, so will go the country” via Holly Otterbein and Marc Caputo of POLITICO — Pennsylvania has emerged as the keystone state of the entire race for the White House. In the last three days of the presidential election, both Trump and Biden’s campaigns have made the swing state their home, with Pennsylvania surfacing as the president’s new top focus, his aides said. Trump spent Saturday crisscrossing the state from the Delaware Valley to fracking country to north-central Pennsylvania to stage four rallies. He’ll return for a stop in the northeast on the eve of the election. Biden sees Pennsylvania as so important that he is spending the final day of the 2020 campaign here.
“Trump’s supporters block traffic on major roadways in New York and New Jersey.” via Neil Vigdor, Jesse McKinley, Emma G. Fitzsimmons and Sydney Ember of The New York Times — Caravans of Trump’s supporters blockaded the Mario M. Cuomo Bridge and the Garden State Parkway on Sunday, snarling traffic on two of the busiest highways in the New York metropolitan area just two days before Election Day. Videos taken by motorists showed the president’s backers parked in the middle of the westbound lanes of the bridge, which carries Interstate 287 across the Hudson River and is named for the father of the current Gov., Andrew M. Cuomo. Many of them exited their vehicles in the rain and waved Trump banners and American flags as motorists honked their horns. The episode happened around midafternoon, with the caravan lining up on the interstate’s shoulder in Tarrytown before driving onto the span.
“Trump’s false claim that doctors inflate COVID-19 deaths to make more money” via Jon Greeburg of PolitiFact — A few weeks ago, Trump had praise for doctors on the front lines of treating coronavirus patients. “Since the plague arrived from China, we have seen our doctors, nurses, first responders, scientists, and researchers at their very best,” he said Sept. 24. Trump has changed his tune. In his recent rallies, with COVID-19 cases skyrocketing and deaths climbing, he has taken to accusing physicians of inflating deaths to line their pockets. “Our doctors get more money if somebody dies from COVID,” he told supporters at a rally in Waterford, Michigan, Oct. 30. “You know that, right? I mean, our doctors are very smart people. So what they do is they say, ‘I’m sorry, but, you know, everybody dies of COVID.’”
“Trump allies, largely unconstrained by Facebook’s rules against repeated falsehoods, cement preelection dominance” via Isaac Stanley-Becker and Elizabeth Dwoskin of The Washington Post — In the final months of the presidential campaign, prominent associates of Trump and conservative groups with vast online followings have flirted with, and frequently crossed, the boundaries set forth by Facebook about the repeated sharing of misinformation. From a pro-Trump super PAC to the president’s eldest son, however, these users have received few penalties, according to an examination of several months of posts and ad spending, as well as internal company documents. In certain cases, their accounts have been protected against more severe enforcement.
“Video altered to make it look like Joe Biden greeted Minnesota during Florida stop” via The Associated Press — It’s an awkward moment when a presidential candidate greets the audience at a rally and names the wrong state. Fortunately for Biden, that didn’t happen to him this week, despite a widely shared video that appears to show him saying “Hello, Minnesota” to a crowd in Florida. It turns out he was, indeed, in Minnesota. The shared video had been altered to change the text on a sign and the podium to refer to Tampa instead of Minnesota. The video had more than 900,000 views on Twitter on Sunday and spread quickly the weekend before the U.S. presidential election.
— RACE IN FLORIDA —
“Biden holds onto slim lead over Trump in latest Florida polls” via Amber Randall and Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Two A+ rated polls, the NBC/Marist and the Monmouth University polls, showed a slight gap between the two presidential candidates. The NBC/Marist poll has Biden leading Trump by five points, and the Monmouth University poll showing Biden leading Trump by four to six points in likely voter scenarios. Sampling registered Florida voters, the Monmouth University poll found that 50% of voters were for Biden, and 45% were for Trump.
“Florida final poll: Biden 51%, Trump 47%” via PoliticalIQ — The final PoliticalIQ Battleground State poll shows Biden with a modest lead over Trump in Florida. The poll, conducted October 28-30 by Scott Rasmussen, shows Biden winning 51% of the vote while Trump picks up 47%. Two percent (2%) have or will be voting for some other candidate. If Biden wins Florida, there is virtually no remaining path to a reelection victory for the President. This result reflects a slight improvement for Biden. He led by just two points in each of the previous PoliticalIQ surveys. Last week, just before the final presidential debate, Biden was up by a 50% to 48% margin.
“Barack Obama to return to South Florida Monday to stump for Biden” via Skyler Swisher of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Former President Obama is returning to South Florida on Monday to rally support for Biden. The Biden campaign, which limits attendance at events because of the pandemic, has not announced the event’s details. Obama last campaigned last Saturday in South Florida for his former vice president, in Miami-Dade County. He took shots at Trump at a drive-in rally, comparing Trump’s behavior in the White House to “Florida man.” “Florida man wouldn’t even do this stuff,” Obama said. “Why we are accepting it from the President of the United States? It’s not normal behavior.”
“Outstanding Democratic ballots are three-times Biden’s Election Day margin in Florida” via Renzo Downey of Florida Politics — Trump‘s lone path to reelection cuts through Florida and requires would-be Biden voters with outstanding vote-by-mail ballots to not return them by the time the polls close Tuesday. Election handicappers at Michael Bloomberg‘s Hawkfish political data firm say the Democratic presidential nominee is poised to beat Trump in Florida and five other battleground states on Election Day. Still, the final total will come down to Democratic turnout. If turnout runs as expected and the Sunshine State polls are accurate, Josh Mendelsohn and Michael Halle at Hawkfish expect Biden to win the state by 120,000 votes.
“With Florida vote tightening, a last-minute push aimed at Black voters” via Gary Fineout and Sabrina Rodriguez of POLITICO Florida — Biden‘s campaign made one final push to reach out to Florida’s Black voters on Sunday as it participated in “Souls to the Polls” events. The Democratic nominee’s wife, Jill Biden, was joined by George Floyd‘s family members on the steps of one of Tallahassee’s most well-known Black churches, Bethel Missionary Baptist Church, where supporters addressed those who protested Floyd’s killing by Minneapolis police in May. Ben Crump, a Tallahassee attorney who represents the Floyd family and has become known nationally, gave a fiery speech to the crowd of roughly 200, saying the “blood” of George Floyd, Emmett Till and Martin Luther King Jr. “was on the ballot.”
“Ron DeSantis warns Biden: ‘Doom and gloom’ will lose you Florida” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — DeSantis took to the Sean Hannity show Friday night to reiterate predictions that Trump would win Florida. DeSantis contended that Biden‘s “lockdown mentality” and “doom and gloom” mindset would seal the Democratic ticket’s fate in the Sunshine State Tuesday night. “I think his lockdown mentality does not play well in the state of Florida,” DeSantis said. “People don’t want to be locked down … doom and gloom is not what they want to hear.” Beyond the rhetorical unpalatability of said “doom and gloom,” it has driven what DeSantis believes are voting patterns that favor Republicans.
“Some older voters shift to Biden in Florida. Will it be enough for him?” via Patricia Mazzei of The New York Times — Whether Florida’s older voters will shift away from the President in large numbers remains unknown, in a state filled with many unknowns. Even if only some retirees change allegiances to vote for Biden, that could be enough to swing Florida, which is why that prospect is so tantalizing for Democrats and a subject of fixation for the two candidates. But while siphoning off older voters from Trump is viewed as perhaps the best path to victory for Biden in Florida, the enthusiasm for the President in Fort Myers shows how difficult that feat might be.
“Unprecedented numbers of Florida women donating to presidential candidates” via Shirsho Dasgupta and Grace Haley of the Miami Herald — From foreign policy to law and order, health care to the economy, abortion access to minority rights, their reasons are varied and differences in opinions many, but across party lines, Florida has seen a surge in the number of women contributing to candidates this election cycle. Around 14,800 women in the state contributed to either Trump’s reelection campaign or Biden’s challenge through individual itemized contributions, the highest number in the most recent five presidential cycles, and almost double the number who chipped in during 2016. Contributions are itemized or disclosed, along with donors’ identifying information, to the FEC once someone contributes more than $200 to a candidate.
“‘We don’t have landslides in Florida’: The fate of a key swing state may be in the hands of voters from this county” via Dan Merica of CNN Politics — Suburban women, some of whom voted for the President four years ago, are backing away from him, turned off primarily by his rhetoric. But in Duval, where the vast majority of registered Democrats are Black, another political trend is at play: Four years after African American turnout was significantly depressed, Democrats are pouring significant resources into righting those wrongs. The confluence of those two factors has turned Duval County, which is made up almost entirely of Jacksonville, into the largest swing county in the largest swing state. And while Democrats and Republicans here agree on little, both Dean Black, chair of the county’s Republican Party, and Daniel Henry, chair of its Democratic Party, agree that what happens in Duval County could tilt the rest of the state.
“Why Jacksonville is critical to winning the presidency” via Andrew Pantazi of The Florida Times-Union — Rather than running up the score in North Florida, like traditional Republicans, Trump won 2016 largely from his better performance in the Tampa Bay area. Trump’s top three gains over Mitt Romney’s results came in Pasco, Pinellas and Volusia counties. This week, Biden and Trump held dueling events in Tampa on the same day. In October, Pence canceled a Jacksonville rally and scheduled one in Lakeland instead. In terms of Northeast Florida, a tie in Duval County “essentially would be a win for Trump,” University of North Florida political scientist Michael Binder said.
“Despite COVID concerns, Trump rallies thousands of fervent fans past Miami-Dade’s curfew” via the Miami Herald — In a hospitality-driven county bottled-up by for months by social distancing measures and mask mandates, where more than 3,600 have died in the pandemic, Trump gathered thousands shoulder-to-shoulder to cheer on his embattled reelection campaign at the Miami-Opa locka Executive airport. He blew past a midnight curfew put in place by a mayor he’s endorsed. And he hammered a crucial tenet of his closing message: His belief that American economy is surging despite the pandemic caused by “the plague from China,“ and that a “safe vaccine” is on its way soon. … Trump’s very appearance ran afoul of the county’s “New Normal” rules, put in place by a county mayor running for Congress with the president’s blessing. Earlier Sunday, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez had announced that he would not lift a midnight curfew that has led Miami-Dade police to issue $500 fines to violating restaurants, but would be “flexible” if people were forced to drive home late.
“Shifting alliances and new coalitions: Why Trump’s path to victory runs through Miami” via David Smiley of the Miami Herald — Heading into the final days of the election, with polls and turnout trends portending another close Florida race, Trump’s hopes of winning another four years in the White House could very well depend on his ability to squeeze every last drop of red out of Miami-Dade County. Trump, a Republican who rose to power four years ago on a hard-line immigration platform, will touch down late Sunday to speak in the deep blue region of his must-win home state, where more than half the population was born in another country. The president’s late-night rally, coming less than 48 hours before Election Day, reflects the possibility of a new-look Florida coalition for Trump.
“With salsa, caravans, Cubans make last push to reelect Trump” via Adriana Gomez Licon of The Associated Press — On the spur of the moment, a singer in a Cuban salsa band had an idea for a lyric to please fellow Trump supporters at a Miami birthday party. Tirso Luis Paez flicked his hand so his bandmates would let him take over during a crowd favorite, “Cuba is Me,” and instead of singing the usual chorus, he belted out: “Yo voy a votar, por Donald Trump!” The seemingly spontaneous moment with Los 3 de la Habana was livestreamed and soon viewed by tens of thousands. The Trump campaign quickly featured it in a national ad projecting Miami Cuban enthusiasm for the Republican leader to Latino markets across the country.
“The push to get Haitians to ‘Hexit’ from Democrats” via Sabrina Rodriguez of POLITICO — You might think Haitian Americans are completely ginned up to vote against the President who called their former homeland a “sh — hole” country. But politics among the diaspora are never that simple, with often conflicting loyalties and agendas. Immigration policy is part of it, insiders say, with Haitian voters making a calculus about whom to support: A vote for Biden is seen as a vote to restore immigration policies friendly to Haitian exiles. Meanwhile, some argue that a vote for Trump is a vote for a President who won’t care enough to meddle in the affairs back home.
“With early voting underway in Florida, Democrats worry about Black and Latino turnout.” via Katie Glueck of The New York Times — For Democrats, the question of what turnout looks like at early voting sites like this one is a crucial factor in their prospects for winning back Florida, an elusive battleground state. They hope to offset what is expected to be a significant Republican turnout on Election Day. They are counting on strong turnout from Democratic voters of color, as well as from White progressives and white moderates who have rejected the Republican Party in the Trump era. At a time when turnout has been especially high in heavily Republican counties, some Democrats have raised concerns about turnout so far among some Black and Latino voters in Florida who tend to support their party.
“Trump enlists Rick Scott to talk Venezuela regime change” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — On behalf of the Trump campaign, U.S. Sen. Scott called attention to the ongoing situation in Venezuela Friday. On hand was someone with a firsthand perspective: Roberto Marrero, the former chief of staff for interim President Juan Guaidó. “Getting these thugs out of power is hard, and we’re doing it by ourselves,” Scott said, noting that most countries aren’t committed to sanctions or concrete actions to help the U.S. bring “freedom and democracy” to Venezuela. Europe, Scott said, has “not been helpful” to the U.S., the Senator said. And China is worse.
“In Florida, voters of color and young voters have had ballots flagged for possible rejection at higher rates than others” via Elise Viebeck and Beth Reinhard of The Washington Post — As Floridians rush to vote in the presidential election, mail ballots from Black, Hispanic and younger voters are being flagged for problems at a higher rate than they are for other voters, potentially jeopardizing their participation in the race for the country’s largest battleground state. The deficient ballots could be rejected if voters do not remedy the problems by 5 p.m. Nov. 5. As of Friday, election officials had set aside ballots from Black and Hispanic voters at two times the rate of ballots from White voters. For people younger than 24, the rate was more than four times what it was for those 65 and older.
Assignment editors — Actress and activist America Ferrera will visit Miami and Orlando to campaign on behalf of the Biden/Harris ticket, vote-by-mail drop-off news conference with Ferrera, Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Miami-Dade Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava, Sen. Oscar Braynon, Reps. Dotie Joseph, Shevrin Jones, Cindy Polo and Javier Fernandez, 10 a.m., the location provided with RSVP online. Vote-by-mail drop-off news conference and canvass kickoff with Ferrera, Congressman Darren Soto, Alexis Lopez Alsina and Kissimmee Mayor Jose Alvarez in Kissimmee, 1 p.m., location also provided with RSVP online.
“Undelivered ballots were found at one Miami-Dade post office. Now others being searched” via Aaron Leibowitz and Rob Wile of the Miami Herald — Two days after inspectors found dozens of undelivered ballots sitting in a post office in South Miami-Dade County, the U.S. Postal Service Office of Inspector General is preparing to sweep other mail facilities in Miami-Dade for ballots that haven’t reached their destination ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Scott Pierce, the special agent in charge of the USPS Inspector General’s Southern Area Field Office, confirmed to the Miami Herald on Sunday afternoon that special agents “will be busy over the next couple of days conducting several station visits” at mail distribution centers in Miami-Dade. Pierce wouldn’t disclose which locations or how many would be searched.
“Jim Smith: ‘I’m a Biden Republican’” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — Another major figure in Florida Republican politics, former Attorney General and former Secretary of State Smith, is coming out with his support for Biden and opposition to Trump. “I’m a Republican today, I’ll be a Republican tomorrow, but in 2020 I’m a Biden Republican,” Smith declares in a new independent video produced by Democratic consultant Kevin Cate and released Friday afternoon. “I’m very proud to be Republican, but there are times when you have to put your country ahead of politics, and that is why I have voted for Biden to be the President.”
To watch the video, click on the image below:
— NEW ADS —
Trump campaign ad touts ‘record-setting economic gains’ — Trump 2020 is out with a new ad heralding new GDP numbers as proof the President can turn the ship around. The ad details Trump’s first term, boldly claiming America is “stronger, safer and more prosperous than ever before. The video also prominently displays the 33% GDP growth rate from the third quarter — a never-before-seen stat only made possible by the economy’s precipitous collapse six months ago. Still, the campaign says that over the last four years, “Trump built our economy to unprecedented heights, and he’s the only candidate who can do it again.”
Trump campaign’s closing ad touts America’s strength — The Trump campaign is out with what it’s calling its closing ad. The spot praises the strength of the country and its people amid the coronavirus pandemic. “Strength. It’s a word we’ve heard a lot this year. Strength of the American people. Strength of the American worker. Strength of the American family,” a narrator says. “We’ve seen grit, determination, optimism, hope. We took the virus head-on, and now we’re getting back to a normal life.” The campaign said it would run the ad during will run through the close of the election during NFL, ACC, and Big 10 football games, as well as on Fox News, the Today Show, The Voice, and other programs.
To watch the ad, click on the image below:
Biden promises to serve supporters and opponents alike in new ad — A new Biden ad features snippets from the candidate’s appearance in Warm Springs, Georgia, this week. “I’m running as a proud Democrat, but I will govern as an American President. I’ll work with Democrats and Republicans. I’ll work as hard for those who don’t support me as for those who do,” Biden says in the ad.
To watch the ad, click on the image below:
“‘Lie, cheat and steal’ is Democrats’ description of Trump in TV ad airing in South Florida” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — The Democratic Party is making a withering assault on Trump in a closing-argument TV ad that starts airing Thursday in South Florida. The Democratic National Committee said the 60-second ad, titled “Deserves,” is designed to show “who Trump really is: someone with a long record of lying, cheating, and stealing his way through life and whose failed leadership has plunged Florida into crisis.” The ad is part of a six-figure ad buy in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale TV market. It begins airing five days before Election Day, and as Florida moves into the final weekend of early voting.
DNC launches projection ads on college campuses — The Democratic National Committee rolled out a new projection ad campaign Sunday in twelve college towns across six battleground states, including Florida. The projections encourage college students to plan to vote and direct viewers to IWillVote.com — Democrats’ comprehensive voter participation website. In Florida, the ads are being displayed near the UF campus in Gainesville and near the FSU campus in Tallahassee.
To watch the ad, click on the image below:
Pro-Trump ad makes final plea to suburban women — Future45, a pro-Trump PAC, launched a new ad aimed at convincing suburban women to vote for Trump. The ad features a is taking some subtext and making it text, portraying a suburban woman holding an unfilled ballot over the kitchen table. “This year, it’s been hell. We have to get back to normal. Our kids back in school, our neighborhood’s safe, people back to work,” she thinks to herself. “I’m so conflicted. Democrats aren’t what they used to be. The far left has gone too far … government-run health care, huge tax hikes, violence in the streets. Republicans aren’t perfect, but they’re the only ones who can bring America back.”
To watch the ad, click on the image below:
Independence USA amplifies Barack Obama’s plea to Miami voters — Independence USA PAC is airing an ad in the Miami market featuring former President Obama imploring Miami voters to show up at the polls. “Miami, I’m asking you to remember what this country can be. For eight years, I saw Joe up close. He made me a better {resident. He’s got the character and experience to make us a better country, Obama says in the ad. He closes with two phrases familiar to Floridians who have paid attention the past few election cycles: “Let’s get to work, Florida. Let’s bring this home.” The ad is part of Mike Bloomberg’s $100 million commitment to flip Florida blue.
To watch the ad, click on the image below:
— VOTERS ARE VOTING —
“Americans surge to polls: ‘I’m going to vote like my life depends on it’” via Nick Corasaniti and Stephanie Saul of The New York Times — An unnerved yet energized America is voting with an urgency never seen before in the approach to a presidential election, as a record 90 million people have cast ballots despite an array of challenges: a pandemic, postal delays, long lines and court rulings that have tested faith in the country’s electoral system. In Texas and Hawaii, turnout has already exceeded the total vote from 2016, with days left for absentee ballots to be returned.
“Texas court rejects bid to toss 127,000 Harris County votes, but fight isn’t over” via Chuck Lindell of the Statesman — The Texas Supreme Court on Sunday rejected, without comment, a bid by three Republican candidates and a GOP activist to toss out almost 127,000 votes cast from drive-thru lanes in the emerging Democratic stronghold of Harris County. However, the votes are not yet safe to count as part of the early voting tally Tuesday. A federal judge will hold an emergency hearing Monday morning — less than 21 hours before polls open on Election Day — to hear arguments on a similar challenge filed by the same group of Republicans, who say that state law prohibits drive-thru voting, so every vote cast from cars during the early voting period should be tossed out as illegal.
— 2020 —
“The weather on Election Day matters. This year most of the country will see clear skies.” via Ellen Barry of The New York Times — “Republicans should pray for rain” is an adage in American politics, suggesting that marginalized voters who tend to support Democrats are the most likely to be deterred by the weather. A 2007 analysis of 14 presidential elections published in the Journal of Politics seemed to bear it out. Historically, every inch of rain reduced the turnout by around 1%, and every inch of snow reduced it by 0.5%, the authors found. In both cases, Republicans benefited. However, more recent analysis suggests that the effect of weather is decreasing, perhaps because more voters are casting their ballots before Election Day.
“As a divisive election arrives, the National Guard prepares for unrest and wrestles with how to respond” via Dan Lamothe of The Washington Post — The National Guard Bureau has established a new unit made up mostly of military police officers that could be dispatched to help quell unrest in coming days, after a turbulent summer in which National Guard members were deployed to several cities. The unit, which could also respond to natural disasters and other missions, was formed in September and initially described as a rapid-reaction force. But as one of the most divisive elections in American history closes in, National Guard officials have softened how they characterize the service members, instead referring to them as “regional response units.”
“Gen Z, Millennial voters embrace activism and voting, as youth turnout surges ahead of Election Day” via Michelle Ye Hee Lee of The Washington Post — Major social movements driven by young activists around climate change, gun safety, and Black Lives Matter protests have led to an explosion of civic awareness among younger Americans, who are on track to turn out to vote in record numbers this election and could play a pivotal role in some key battleground states. Data on early voters and recent polling suggest eligible voters under 30 could break their historic 2008 turnout when it peaked at 48% when Obama was elected as president. New data suggest they may be on track to sustain their dramatic turnout in the 2018 midterms when they more than doubled their voting rate compared to the prior midterm election.
“Florida failed to spend $10 million for election security, COVID-19 protection at polls” via Jeffrey Schweers of the NWF Daily News — With days to go, Florida has failed to spend more than $10 million designated for election security, COVID-19 protection at the polls and a surge in mailed ballots. A large piece of that pie is $3.5 million that Secretary of State Laurel Lee requested from the Legislature earlier this year for the state’s 67 county supervisors of elections to shore up their systems. The counties didn’t ask for that money. And it remains unspent, sitting in a state account as “unbudgeted reserve.” Another chunk of pie left on the plate is $6 million in CARES Act funds that 19 counties decided not to take advantage of
“Florida judges teed up for election challenges” via News Service of Florida — Courts in the state capital are preparing for what could be a judicial tangle over the outcome of Tuesday’s election. Second Judicial Circuit Chief Judge Jonathan Sjostrom has issued an administrative order assigning election-related cases to certain judges. Under Sjostrom’s Oct. 15 order, Judge John Cooper will be assigned the first election-related legal challenge, and Judges Angela Dempsey and Charles Dodson — who also are assigned to the circuit’s civil division — will handle subsequent cases. According to Sjostrom’s order, if more than six election-related cases are filed, three other judges will be temporarily assigned to the civil division.
“Prediction from Broward’s ballot-counting room: The results will be known on Election Night” via Michael Udine for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — In anticipation of a record number of mail-in ballots this cycle, Broward’s three-person elections canvassing board started its work earlier than in previous years. For weeks, we have been addressing issues relating to the ballot, voter intent and signature matching, as outlined by Florida law. I am happy to report that we are caught up and ahead of the game compared to previous elections. And I am confident that on Election Day, we will be able to count the final batch of mail-in ballots and report the final results that night. To date, fewer than 400 ballots have had signature issues. So far, about 500 ballots have been flagged for questions of voter intent.
“How Democrats lost the Cuban vote and jeopardized their future in Florida” via Noah Lanard of Mother Jones — In 2018, Florida House District 110 swung 17 points to the right after Florida Republicans made socialism a central issue in the midterms and prioritized outreach to Latinos. Going into 2020, it was clear that Democrats had a major problem with Cuban voters, particularly among the more working-class recent immigrants that it once counted on to counterbalance the conservatism of older exiles. Instead of dealing with the problem, many South Florida Democrats told me, the party let it fester. Fernand Amandi, who helped shape Hispanic outreach for Obama’s reelection campaign as President of the consulting firm Bendixen & Amandi, said Florida Republicans have been running an almost permanent campaign since nearly losing the Cuban vote in 2012.
“Florida GOP pulled in three times as much cash as Dems before the general election” via Annie Martin of the Orlando Sentinel — Florida Republicans raised three times as much cash as Democrats in the weeks leading up to the general election, raking in contributions from the tourism industry and casino magnates and flooding voters with ads in key races. State Republicans brought in nearly $37 million ahead of the general election, while Democrats raised about $12.3 million, newly released election reports show. The figures represent contributions to the state’s political parties and their affiliated committees, not those given to individual candidates or their Political Action Committees. Much of the money was spent on advertising or funneled to PACs, including those affiliated with candidates locked in tight races.
“For Our Future pours $1.5 million into late efforts for Democrats, Amendment 2” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics — Amendment 2, a get-out-the-vote effort, and a handful of Democrats ranging from Joe Biden to House candidates are getting last-minute backing through a $1.5 million push from the For Our Future Florida political action committee. The group announced spending $1.1 million on mail and door hangers and $400,000 on a digital buy in Florida. They will co-support the proposal to raise Florida’s minimum wage, get-out-the-vote efforts for Biden, and seven Florida Democratic candidates.
—”In deep-red Florida CD 4, a former newscaster looks to upend a former Sheriff” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
“Guns, tanks and flamethrowers: Anna Paulina Luna featured as ‘RedState Warrior,’ guns blazing in new ad” via Kelly Hayes of Florida Politics — Luna is on the airwaves with a newly released ad from the 2nd-to-None PAC, a national pro-2nd Amendment rights political committee. And, well, it’s something. The nearly 3-minute ad features three GOP congressional candidates, as well as the former NRA spokesperson, together coined the “RedState Warriors,” The ad kicks-off with a satirical rating warning, alerting the audience that it is rated “R,” reasoning “Trigger warning: The rights exercised in this video may be disturbing to snowflakes and tyrants.”
To watch the ad, click on the image below:
“Luna collects $20K more than Charlie Crist in final days of campaign” via Kelly Hayes of Florida Politics — Luna is leading in last-minute contributions against Crist as the two enter the final stretch for Florida’s 13th Congressional District. The 48-hour reports cover contributions over $1,000 and are due to the Federal Elections Commission within 48-hours of receipt. Luna has reported raking in about $70,000 since Oct. 15. Crist, not far behind, has accumulated about $51,000. Because these reports only require disclosure of donations more than $1,000, a fair number of the donations listed are from political committees.
“Scott Franklin gives $150K to campaign in final push, Alan Cohn nears $100K in last-minute contributions” via Kelly Hayes of Florida Politics — Franklin is leading Cohn in last-minute contributions, despite trailing in overall fundraising for Florida’s 15th Congressional District. The candidates filed 48-hour reports covering contributions in excess of $1,000 due to the Federal Elections Commission within 48-hours of receipt. Franklin has collected $285,200, as reported in his 48-hour filings, which started Oct. 15. That tally includes $150,000 donated by the candidate to his own campaign on Oct. 19. Cohn trailed Franklin, bringing in $98,090 in the 48-hour reports. Despite Franklin’s success in last-minute donations, he’s still behind.
— LEG. CAMPAIGNS —
—”Patricia Sigman turned Jason Brodeur’s run for SD 9 into a race” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics
—”José Javier Rodríguez enters Election Day as a presumptive favorite in SD 37” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics
—”If Democrats want to flip the Senate, they’ll need to start with a win in SD 39” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics
—“One-term worries for Wyman Duggan? Outside money looks to tip HD 15” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—”Expect HD 26 rematch between Elizabeth Fetterhoff, Patrick Henry to go down to the wire” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
—“Scott Plakon, Tracey Kagan in fiery battle for HD 29” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics
—”Democrat Barbara Cady aims to thwart Fred Hawkins’ bid in HD 42” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics
—”Julie Jenkins gives Jackie Toledo a run for her money in now vulnerable HD 60” via Kelly Hayes of Florida Politics
—”Drake Buckman, Fiona McFarland aim for common-sense voters in HD 72” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
—”After 2018 recount, the race for HD 89 — home to Mar-a-Lago — is wide-open once again” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics
—”Armed with a cash advantage, Cindy Polo looks to secure a second term in the House” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics
—“Just 417 votes decided the HD 105 race in 2018, now the seat is open once again” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics
—”Republicans look to hold HD 118, a seat that has swapped party control for two straight cycles” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics
— DOWN BALLOT —
“Fraudster attempts to register dozens of dead Democrats as voters in Broward” via Brittany Wallman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Authorities have uncovered an attempt to register dozens of dead people as Democratic voters in Broward County. Though officials said no mail-in ballots were requested or cast under the falsified voter IDs, the scheme exposes weaknesses in Florida’s voter registration process, which relies partially on the honor system. In Columbia, South Carolina, an unknown person submitted at least 54 new voter applications in July in the same neat handwriting to the Broward elections office, several in each of 19 envelopes. Many of the voters were elderly, and had recently died in the Northeast.
— CORONA FLORIDA —
“Palm Bay early voting site, elections office closes because of COVID-19 among election workers” via Dave Berman and Tyler Vazquez of Florida Today — A Palm Bay early voting site has been closed after election workers there tested positive for COVID-19, Brevard County Supervisor of Elections Lori Scott announced Friday. The affected site is at the supervisor of elections’ Palm Bay administrative offices, 450 Cogan Drive SE, which also is temporarily closed. Drop boxes for mail-in ballots were still available at the site, while in-person voting was closed. The location is only used for early voting, and the closure will not affect voting on the Nov. 3 Election Day. There were 9,369 voters who cast ballots there during the first 11 days of early in-person voting in advance of Tuesday’s election.
“County’s rate of positivity tops threshold for fourth time in week” via Jane Musgrave of The Palm Beach Post — For the fourth time in a week, the coronavirus infection rate in Palm Beach County on Thursday exceeded levels recommended by pandemic experts, according to a daily update from the Florida Department of Health. The county’s positivity rate growth comes as the number of COVID-19 cases are climbing both in the county and across the state. By the end of the week, it is likely 800,000 state residents will have been infected since the pandemic began. On Thursday, the county’s positivity rate, which indicates the virus’s prevalence in the community, swelled to 5.76%. According to the WHO, the rate must consistently stay below 5.0% before any meaningful steps can contain the deadly virus.
— CORONA NATION —
“Trump’s dismissal of COVID risk paved way to White House outbreak” via Jennifer Jacobs of Bloomberg — From the pandemic’s earliest days, Trump was of two minds on coronavirus. In public, he was dismissive and belittling of the virus and those who feared it. In private, for all his bravado, he acted like a man who dreaded catching it. Yet at the White House, he shunned one of the simplest and most effective ways of preventing transmission — wearing a mask. “Take that f—ing thing off,” he demanded more than once to aides who showed up wearing masks in the early days of the virus when he’d been told they weren’t a fail-safe. “It doesn’t look good.”
“‘A whole lot of hurt’: Dr. Anthony Fauci warns of COVID-19 surge, offers blunt assessment of Trump’s response” via Josh Dawsey and Yasmeen Abutaleb of The Washington Post — Trump’s repeated assertions the United States is “rounding the turn” on the novel coronavirus have increasingly alarmed the government’s top health experts, who say the country is heading into a long and potentially deadly winter with an unprepared government unwilling to make tough choices. Fauci, a leading member of the government’s coronavirus response, said the United States needed to make an “abrupt change” in public health practices and behaviors. He said the country could surpass 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day. He predicted rising deaths in the coming weeks. Fauci’s blunt warnings come as Trump has rallied in states and cities experiencing record surges in infections and hospitalizations.
“Study links Trump rallies to more than 700 COVID-19 deaths” via David Lim of POLITICO — Trump‘s campaign rallies between June and September may have caused some 30,000 coronavirus infections and more than 700 deaths, according to a new study by Stanford University economists. The working paper, released late Friday, examined the impact of 18 rallies held between June 20 and Sept. 30 by comparing the virus’s spread after each event to parts of the country that didn’t host rallies. The findings illustrate the risks of not heeding public health warnings to wear masks and avoid large gatherings to mitigate the risks of COVID-19, the authors wrote.
“Preelection virus spike creates concerns for polling places” via The Associated Press — A surge in coronavirus cases across the country, including in key presidential battleground states, is creating mounting health and logistical concerns for voters, poll workers, and political parties ahead of Election Day. In Iowa, where both presidential campaigns are competing feverishly, county officials said they were preparing for scores of confirmed or potentially infected people to vote curbside. It’s an option typically used by disabled people that must be available outside every polling place. In Cedar Rapids, Linn County Supervisor Stacey Walker encouraged people to cast their ballot but said they should take safety precautions at polling places to protect themselves and their neighbors.
“Will the hardest-hit communities get the coronavirus vaccine?” via Gina Kolata of The New York Times — It is an idea that may never have been tried in wide-scale vaccine distribution: citing principles of equity and justice, experts are urging that people living in communities hardest-hit by the pandemic, which are often made up of Black and Hispanic populations, get a portion of the first, limited supply of coronavirus vaccines set aside just for them. A committee of experts advising Dr. Robert Redfield, the C.D.C. director, is considering the idea. But as it comes into focus, its underlying concepts and execution must be further defined, and the approach may then face legal and political challenges.
“As pandemic raged and thousands died, government regulators cleared most nursing homes of infection-control violations” via Debbie Cenziper, Joel Jacobs and Shawn Mulcahy of The Washington Post — At the outset of a looming pandemic, just weeks after the first known coronavirus outbreak on U.S. soil, the woman responsible for helping to protect 1.3 million residents in America’s nursing homes laid out an urgent strategy to slow the spread of infection. In the suburbs of Seattle, federal inspectors had found the Life Care Center of Kirkland failed to properly care for ailing patients or alert authorities to a growing number of respiratory infections. At least 146 other nursing homes across the country had confirmed coronavirus cases in late March.
“COVID-19 is worse in the Dakotas now than it was in the spring’s hot spots” via Elizabeth Findell of The Wall Street Journal — The percentage of tests for COVID-19 coming back positive in South Dakota has soared to 46%. That’s more than eight times the World Health Organization’s recommended 5% threshold for businesses to be open. As COVID-19 cases surge across the U.S. and in Europe, South Dakota and North Dakota hold a distinct position: Each has more new virus cases per capita than any other states have seen since the pandemic began. South Dakota has the most and North Dakota the second-most. “Those who don’t want to wear a mask shouldn’t be shamed into wearing one,” wrote South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.
“One boy with COVID-19 likely led to 116 positive cases at a Wisconsin summer camp, CDC report shows” via Molly Beck of USA Today — Between July 2 and Aug. 11, one infected camper who had tested negative before arriving led to COVID-19 diagnoses for nearly 80% of the camp’s attendees. State health officials tested nearly all attendees at a faith-based camp for boys after a small group of children who were in close contact with the boy became sick or tested positive. At least one confirmed case was found in every dormitory room and yurt over the course of the outbreak. The CDC did not identify the camp but described it as a boys’ overnight summer school retreat that included 152 high school-aged boys, counselors, and staff members from 21 states and territories and two foreign countries.
“How are Americans catching the virus? Increasingly, ‘they have no idea’” via Sarah Mervosh and Lucy Tomkins of The New York Times — As the coronavirus soars across the country, charting a single-day record of 99,155 new cases on Friday and surpassing nine million cases nationwide, tracing the path of the pandemic in the United States is no longer simply challenging. It has become nearly impossible. Gone are the days when Americans could easily understand the virus by tracking rising case numbers back to discrete sources — the crowded factory, the troubled nursing home, the rowdy bar. Now, there are so many cases, in so many places, that many people are coming to a frightening conclusion: They have no idea where the virus is spreading.
— CORONA ECONOMICS —
“CDC to allow cruise ships to resume sailing, in ‘phased approach’” via Stephanie Beasley of POLITICO — The CDC said the initial phase of its “framework for conditional sailing order” will mandate compliance with testing, quarantine, isolation and social distancing requirements for cruise ship crew, while operators build lab capacity for testing both crew and future passengers. The next phases will include simulated voyages to demonstrate cruise operators can mitigate coronavirus risks, CDC certification for ships that meet specified requirements, and eventually a return to sailing with passengers. The order applies to cruise ships carrying 250 or more passengers in U.S. waters. “This framework provides a pathway to resume safe and responsible sailing,” said CDC Director Redfield.
— MORE CORONA —
“White House COVID-19 adviser Scott Atlas apologizes for Russia Today interview” via Renzo Downey of Florida Politics — A controversial member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force apologized Sunday for interviewing with Russia Today. RT America is registered as a foreign agent with the U.S. Department of Justice. But Dr. Atlas, a task force appointee hand-picked by Trump, appeared on the network Saturday without permission from the White House. “I recently did an interview with RT and was unaware they are a registered foreign agent,” Atlas tweeted. “I regret doing the interview and apologize for allowing myself to be taken advantage of. I especially apologize to the national security community who is working hard to defend us.”
“Police bust New York City party with nearly 400 people on Halloween” via Joel Shannon of USA Today — Police charged nine organizers in a bust of an “illegal bar/party” that had nearly 400 people in attendance in New York City, the NYC sheriff announced Saturday. Police shut down the gathering held inside a Brooklyn warehouse early in the morning on Halloween. New York Gov. Cuomo on Saturday warned against Halloween gatherings that increase the risk of transmitting COVID-19, tweeting, “Halloween should be spooky, not scary.” The guidelines tweeted by Cuomo say parties are particularly risky because they can bring together people from different areas for a long period of time.
“Gov. Andrew Cuomo ends quarantine list, switches to testing plan for visitors” via ABC 7 New York — Cuomo announced New York is moving away from the Tri-State Travel Advisory and will now require people coming to the state to test negative. The newly unveiled quarantine policy will do away with the current Tri-State Travel Advisory list, and now mandates that anyone visiting the state must test negative or quarantine for 14 days except for residents from contiguous states New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. “There will be no quarantine list; there will be no metrics,” Cuomo said. “If you are coming into New York within three days you must have tested negative. Once you arrive in New York, you must quarantine for three days and can take a test on the fourth day.”
“Prince William battled coronavirus in April but kept it secret because he didn’t want to alarm nation” via Clemmie Moodie and Matt Wilkinson of The Sun — The heir to the throne, 38, caught the virus in April days after dad, Prince Charles, and Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, were struck down. William told one observer at an engagement: “There were important things going on, and I didn’t want to worry anyone.” The Duke was treated by palace doctors and followed government guidelines by isolating at the family home Anmer Hall, in Norfolk. Remarkably, he carried out 14 telephone and video call engagements during April.
“A woman died of coronavirus on a plane. Her fellow passengers were never notified.” via Ian Duncan of The Washington Post — When Spirit Airlines learned that a Texas woman had died of COVID-19 on one of its flights in July, the airline said it alerted the CDC and received an acknowledgment from the agency. Spirit spokesman Erik Hofmeyer said it was never asked by health authorities to share passenger manifests to help track down people who might have been exposed. State health officials in New Mexico, where the woman was declared dead after the Dallas-bound flight was diverted to Albuquerque, acknowledged they failed to investigate, as did the CDC.
— TOP OPINION —
“The coronavirus emergency is worsening by the second. We must take immediate action.” via The Washington Post editorial board — Every second you are reading this, another American is infected with the coronavirus. Every 107 seconds, someone in the United States is dying. Once again, under the feeble stewardship of Trump, the nation is plunging into an abyss of unnecessary suffering and loss. Election or not, strong measures are required now to brake the virus from killing an additional 100,000 people or more in the next few months. In nearly all 50 states, plus D.C., new COVID-19 cases are increasing; test positivity rates are above 5% in more than 30 of them. Hospitalization has jumped nearly 58% since Sept. 19.
— OPINIONS —
“Our biggest Election Day concern” via Richard Pildes and Richard Hasen of CNN Politics — Of all the concerns surrounding Election Day, one of the most important has received almost no attention. As law professors focused on election law and the law of democracy, we have spent more than 50 years combined following elections and election disputes. We know that no election is perfect and that some problems will inevitably arise on November 3. With commentators floating the possibility of a Constitutional crisis, a civil war, breaches in our electronic voting machines and other worst-case scenarios, hypervigilant voters and the media must be careful not to undermine our elections by giving excessive play to typical Election Day problems or hastily spreading viral posts before the facts are verified.
“America’s upended rituals, Trump and a day of cosmic decisions” via Colbert I. King of The Washington Post — On Saturday, much of the country will be caught up in the uniquely American observance of Halloween. On Sunday, many will celebrate All Saints’ Day. That will be followed two days later by America’s elections. A trilogy of national proceedings turned upside down by the out-of-control coronavirus pandemic. Trick-or-treating door-to-door, crowded costume parties, and haunted houses are all on hold this year. The more than 228,000 people in the United States killed by the coronavirus since February and other saintly departed will be remembered in prayer, but under conditions that will limit COVID-19 exposure risks. It didn’t have to be this way. But ’tis what it is because Trump is in the White House.
“The united hates of America” via Carlos Lozada of The Washington Post — The growing polarization of the United States into a nation torn by partisan identities is one of the legacies of the Trump presidency, even if it began long ago. What Bill Bishop, writing in the 2000s, called “The Big Sort,” was a decadeslong process of clustering by geography, income and culture, producing homogenous enclaves with self-reinforcing and mutually opposing worldviews. Each camp finds vindication in its rival’s struggles, preferring results that are worse for all if they manage to boost the home team’s relative advantage and magnify the differences between the sides. We’re way past bowling alone; now, we’re grabbing that bowling ball and looking for something to smash.
“The dire consequences if this election doesn’t go right” via Steve Bousquet of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel — America’s super-spreader of lies, Trump, has said at least one thing in this campaign that’s true: “Elections have consequences.” Democrats in Florida don’t need to be reminded of that, but I’m going to offer reminders anyway on this final weekend before the most important election of our lives. A series of agonizingly close losses, followed by the inevitable second-guessing and finger-pointing, has had a traumatizing effect on the Democratic psyche in Florida. A second Trump victory in Florida would solidify Florida’s perception as a red state in the eyes of many Americans and the national media.
“Early voting succeeded beyond our wildest expectations” via Jennifer Rubin of The Washington Post — Over 90 million people have voted early, either by absentee ballot already received or by in-person early voting. That’s well over 65 percent of the total votes cast in 2016. This was accomplished despite Republican political and legal opposition, Trump’s efforts to sabotage the United States Post Office, discredit early voting, and a crackpot theory from some conservatives judges devised out of whole cloth had to be not only received but counted on Election Day. It is both appropriate and easy to focus on fights in key states about counting ballots postmarked before but received after polls close. It is important to note that without exception, Republicans are trying to exclude ballots and make voting harder because they fear the verdict of the voters.
— ON TODAY’S SUNRISE —
Early voting is over, and the election just is one day away. There are 14,400,000 registered voters in Florida; 60% of them have already cast their ballots by mailing them in or taking advantage of early voting sites over the past two weeks.
Also, on today’s Sunrise:
— Florida’s death toll from COVID-19 is set to break the 17,000 mark when updated stats are released. Sunday’s total was 16,997. And if that’s not bad enough, there’s been a sizable increase in the number of new infections.
— Jill Biden campaigns in Tallahassee, joining a “Souls to the Polls” march from church to an early voting site.
— Biden came to Florida to talk about racial justice. Joining her was the family of George Floyd and their attorney, Ben Crump.
— Trump also held a rally in Miami/Dade Sunday with an 11:30 p.m. start time. You won’t hear it on this podcast because that’s way past my curfew, as well as Miami/Dade’s curfew too. But that didn’t stop Trump. As Mel Brooks once said: “It’s good to be king.”
— Former President Barack Obama is also back in Florida for a preelection rally. It’s one more sign of how close the race is here — and how important our electoral votes are in the process.
— There’s been all sorts of talk in political circles about dastardly schemes to interfere with counting mail-in ballots. Sen. Rick Scott is just hoping they call the race on election night, so none of that will matter.
— And finally, two Florida men were accused of stealing ballots from a mailbox, and a Florida Woman used a crowbar to get a refund from her cable company.
To listen, click on the image below:
— ALOE —
“In Trump and Biden, a choice of teetotalers for President” via Adam Nagourney of The New York Times — A presidential election that has driven a nation to drink is being fought to the bitter end by two men who do not. For the first time in modern history, both major party candidates for the White House are teetotalers. Trump and his Democratic opponent, Biden, have not had an alcoholic drink over the course of their lives, by their own accounts. This Teetotaler Campaign, and the fact that this circumstance has drawn so little notice, is to some extent evidence of how the once hard-drinking culture of politics is changing. Candidates, campaign aides and reporters are drinking less, aware of the scrutiny that comes in the age of cellphones and Twitter, not to mention the nonstop demands of the round-the-clock campaign.
— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —
Best wishes, belatedly, to Danny Martell of Florida Power & Light. Celebrating today are Michael Kruse of POLITCO, former U.S. Rep. David Jolly, and our friend (shhhh! don’t tell anyone), Jesse Panuccio, of Boies Schiller Flexner.
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Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, A.G. Gancarski, Renzo Downey and Drew Wilson.
