Ambiguity in at least one prediction market related to the 2024 presidential race appears to be resolving, with Florida’s Governor in front-runner status.
A Friday “Predictive Insights” email from the PredictIt platform proclaimed that Ron DeSantis “leads the 2024 race” as Joe Biden’s “age catches up to him,” the latest in a series of boosts for the Governor’s still-theoretical road to the White House.
The analysis trumpets this week’s University of New Hampshire poll that showed DeSantis ahead of Biden in the General Election and the previously dominant Donald Trump in the Republican Primary, even as the Governor’s leads were within the margin of error in both hypothetical faceoffs.
“The New Hampshire poll is the latest sign that DeSantis may have enough juice with voters to take on Trump, or to take on the mantle if the former president doesn’t run in 2024. Earlier this month, DeSantis beat Trump in a straw poll at a conservative summit in Colorado for the second year in a row. That coincided with other straw poll wins in Wisconsin and Nevada,” PredictIt urges.
DeSantis continues to surge, meanwhile. PredictIt notes that he was tied with Trump in the GOP Primary race as recently as June 19, but has surged since, with his “Yes” shares valued at 41 cents, five cents above the former President as of Friday at noon.
A similar dynamic is in play in the Presidential prediction market, with the latest DeSantis “Yes” share price of 36 cents being nine cents above the former President and a full 15 cents above the fading Biden.
DeSantis continues to deny any interest in a presidential run, mocking what he called a media “obsession” about a potential campaign in his most recent press conference.
DeSantis has been coy when asked about 2024, calling the chatter about it “nonsense” for months. He sidestepped this topic as recently as a Fox News interview this month. He continues to downplay recent straw polls showing him as a leading presidential contender in 2024.
Trump, meanwhile, continues to try to put DeSantis in a subordinate role, telling a friendly Newsmax interviewer this week he was “very responsible” for the former Congressman winning the Governor’s race four years ago.