Scott Powers
Redistricting and voter registration trends have created fairly evenly balanced electorates for 23 House district elections heading into the fall Midterms.
The voter registration book closing for the Aug. 23 Primary Election shows only a handful of Florida’s 120 new House districts show proportions of Republican and Democratic registered voters within 5 percentage points of each other, giving either party a realistic shot at winning.
The close districts include 14 where Republican incumbents will seek re-election this fall and just two with Democratic incumbents.
There are General Election battles for open seats in seven other close districts.
In two other districts with evenly balanced electorates, Republican incumbents Rep. Sam Killebrew in House District 48 and Rep. Josie Tomkow in House District 51 already won re-election since they had no General Election opponents.
The latest voter registration numbers show Florida had 14.3 million eligible voters registered for the Aug. 23 Primary Election, with between 81,000 and 154,000 voters registered in all of Florida’s 120 House districts that came from this year’s redistricting map.
In all the balanced districts, independent and third-party voters will play a significant role. In each of the 23 contested elections, those voters comprise at least 28% of the electorate and around a third of all voters.
The closely balanced House districts are:
— House District 22 in North Florida, where Democrat Brandon Peters is challenging Republican Rep. Chuck Clemons.
The district has 2,400 more registered Republicans than registered Democrats, an advantage of 1.9% of the electorate. In the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump carried the precincts now composing HD 22 by 1 percentage point.
— House District 28 on Florida’s History Coast, where Democrat John Navarra is challenging Republican Rep. Tom Leek.
HD 28 has 4,400 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 3.4 percentage points. In 2020 Trump carried the district by 7.5 points.
— House District 29 in Central Florida, where Democrat Rick Karl is challenging Republican Rep. Webster Barnaby.
The district has 1,000 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 0.8 points. In 2020 Trump carried the district by 7.2 percentage points.
— House District 33, on Florida’s Space Coast, where Democrat Anthony Yantz is challenging Republican Rep. Randy Fine.
HD 33 has 4,800 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 3.6 points. In 2020 Trump carried the district by 5.8 points.
— House District 35 in Central Florida, where Democrat Rishi Bagga is challenging Republican Rep. Fred Hawkins.
HD 35 has 3,500 more Democrats than Republicans, an advantage of 3 points. In 2020 President Joe Biden carried the district by 5 points.
— House District 36 in Central Florida, where Republican Rachel Plakon and Democrat Deborah Poulalion are battling for an open seat.
The district has 3,500 more Democrats than Republicans, an advantage of 2.8 points. In 2020 Biden carried the district by 4.2 points.
— House District 37 in Central Florida, where Republican Susan Plasencia is challenging Democratic Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith.
HD 37 has 4,500 more Democrats than Republicans, an advantage of 4.4 points. In 2020 Biden carried the district by 11.4 points.
— House District 38 in Central Florida, where Democrat Sarah Henry is challenging Republican Rep. David Smith.
The district has 4,200 more Democrats than Republicans, an advantage of 3.3 points. In 2020 Biden carried the district by 7.6 points.
— House District 39 in Central Florida, where Republican Doug Bankson and Democrat Tiffany Hughes are battling for an open seat.
HD 39 has fewer than 100 more Democrats than Republicans, an advantage of 0.1 points. In 2020 Biden carried the district by 1.7 points.
— House District 45 in Central Florida, where Republican Carolina Amesty and Democrat Allie Braswell are battling for an open seat.
The district has 2,300 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 2 points. In 2020, Biden carried the district by 5.5 points.
— House District 61 in the Tampa Bay area, where Democrat Janet Varnell Warwick is challenging Republican Rep. Linda Chaney.
HD 61 has 6,400 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 4.9 points. In 2020 Trump carried the district by 5.1 points.
— House District 65 in the Tampa Bay area, where Republican Karen Gonzalez Pitman and Democrat Jen McDonald are battling for an open seat.
The district has 5,300 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 4.4 points. In 2020 Biden carried the district by 4.1 points.
— House District 69 in the Tampa Bay area, where Republican Danny Alvarez is challenging Democratic Rep. Andrew Learned.
HD 69 has 2,700 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 2.3 points. In 2020 Trump carried the district by 2.1 points.
— House District 84 on Florida’s Treasure Coast, where Democrat Forest Blanton is challenging Republican Rep. Dana Trabulsy.
The district has 2,900 more Democrats than Republicans, an advantage of 2.3 points. In 2020 Trump carried the district by 3.6 points.
— House District 85 on Florida’s Treasure Coast, where Democrat Curtis Tucker is challenging Republican Rep. Toby Overdorf.
HD 85 has 3,500 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 2.5 points. In 2020, Trump carried the district by 6.3 points.
— House District 87 in South Florida, where Democrat Sienna Osla is challenging Republican Rep. Mike Caruso.
The district has 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 4.6 points. In 2020, Trump carried the district by 0.4 points.
— House District 91 in South Florida, where Republican Peggy Gossett-Seidman faces Democrat Andy Thomson for an open seat.
HD 91 has 2,900 more Democrats than Republicans, an advantage of 2.3 points. In 2020 Biden carried the district by 4.5 points.
— House District 94 in South Florida, where Democrat Terence Davis is challenging Republican Rep. Rick Roth.
The district has 5,600 more Democrats than Republicans, an advantage of 4.4 points. In 2020 Trump carried the district by 0.1 points.
— House District 100 in South Florida, Democrat Linda Thompson Gonzalez is challenging Republican Rep. Chip LaMarca.
HD 100 has 1,600 more Democrats than Republicans, an advantage of 1.1 points. In 2020 Biden carried the district by 0.6 points.
— House District 114 in South Florida, where Democrat Adam Benna is challenging Republican Rep. Demi Busatta Cabrera.
The district has 2,300 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 2.1 points. In 2020 Biden carried the district by 0.3 points.
— House District 115 in South Florida, where Republican Alina Garcia and Democrat Christie Cantin Davis are battling for an open seat.
HD 115 has 4,100 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 3.4 points. In 2020 Trump carried the district by 1.9 points.
— House District 119 in South Florida, where Republican Juan Carlos Porras and Democrat Gabriel Gonzalez are battling for an open seat.
The district has 4,900 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 4.3 points. In 2020 Trump carried the district by 8.4 points.
— House District 120 in the Florida Keys, where Democrat Adam Gentle is challenging Republican Rep. Jim Mooney.
HD 120 has 2,300 more Republicans than Democrats, an advantage of 2.6 points. In 2020 Trump carried the district by 5 points.
