Progressive poll shows Charlie Crist within 1 point of Ron DeSantis
The gap is widening?

Crist DeSantis
Is the Governor hurting the Republican brand statewide?

Polling released by progressive watchdogs shows Gov. Ron DeSantis just 1 percentage point ahead of Democratic challenger Charlie Crist.

Just 47% of Florida registered voters plan to vote to re-elect the Republican Governor, while 46% intend to vote for the Democrat. That’s according to polling published by the Florida Communications and Research Hub, a collective effort of Progress Florida and Florida Watch.

That suggests the race is well within the poll’s small 1.83 percentage point margin of error.

The results come from a survey of 2,860 voters polled statewide, selected to reflect a Republican-leaning electorate based on recent election cycles. Respondents were surveyed from Sept. 22 to 27, a period before the recent landfall of Hurricane Ian.

The findings show a tightening of the race but are notably different from other polling. That includes one also released Monday by Siena College Research Institute that shows DeSantis with a notable lead, but with the race still within the margin of error.

Notably, results from the Hub poll show the race tightening as the Nov. 8 election grows closer, despite DeSantis heavily outspending Crist. The same outfit a month ago found DeSantis leading Crist 48% to 45%, meaning the incumbent lost ground as the Democrat gained. In July, DeSantis was leading in the poll 47% to 44%.

Pollsters attempted to attribute the results to DeSantis’ divisiveness.

“Instead of trying to solve the real issues facing the people of our state, Ron DeSantis has used his bully pulpit as governor to try to divide Floridians to fuel his own personal ambition for higher office,” said Progress Florida Executive Director Mark Ferrulo.

“Despite the Governor’s massive campaign war chest funded by billionaires and corporate donors, it is clear voters are increasingly looking for candidates who will address our housing affordability crisis, protect the right to abortion, and pass commonsense gun safety reforms that keep our communities safe.”

Crist’s team heralded the poll finding. “Floridians witnessed Ron DeSantis cruelly use their tax dollars to fly out-of-state migrants to Massachusetts, while failing to prepare communities ravaged by a devastating natural disaster,” said Austin Durrer, Crist campaign manager. “Folks are seeing this governor’s true colors, and it’s why Charlie Crist is closing in.”

The other factor appears to be Democrats coming together behind Crist after a divisive Primary, where Crist defeated Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried for the Democratic nomination.

DeSantis since last month saw a decline among Hispanic voters, who still break for DeSantis 45% to 43%, but last month went for the incumbent 48% to 41%.

Notably, both Crist and DeSantis at this point poll even with tests on generic Republican and Democratic candidates, indicating strong partisanship among voters. But Republicans overall are polling worse now, at 47%, than they were in August, at 50%. Meanwhile, generic Democrats rose from 41% in August to 50% in September.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


40 comments

  • Richard Bruce

    October 3, 2022 at 4:14 pm

    Were 2860 surveys mailed out? How many answered? Or did 2860 answered and how many of them were Rep or Dem? Never believe any poll unless the raw data is made public.

    • David Schwartz

      October 4, 2022 at 2:55 pm

      I think a hint is in the article about the surveyed “Republican-leaning electorate based on recent election.” They are also stating the numbers surveyed, which is likely the actual responses. Note the narrow range of error. That said, I agree that polls can be inherently biased based on populations surveyed, sample size, questionnaires returned, if mailed, and phrasing of questions as well.

      This poll is interesting though a gives a hint of erosion of certain Republican support which will have a crucial effect on the election, despite spending advantage.

    • c f

      October 5, 2022 at 11:26 pm

      Obviously, polls are weaponized instruments of social conditioning and have absolutely nothing to do with truth. Funny that “journalists” continue to present poll results as news instead of pure propaganda.

  • David in Shoreline

    October 3, 2022 at 4:39 pm

    Give me a break. Floridians are very happy with Governor DeSantis. And his storm response was outstanding and will lead to a much faster recovery. Hell, the Governor even cooked breakfast for hurricane responders over the weekend, demonstrating yet again he is a man of the people. Charlie on the other hand is a man of the sewers. (That’s where the Democrats hang out when they aren’t ruining America, right?)

    • DesertDweller

      October 4, 2022 at 1:00 pm

      Regrettably, DeSantis only cares about DeSantis. In that vein, he shares much in common with Trump. It’s significant to note that after his TX/FL/MA “traveling daisy chain”, many small business owners in FL complained that they continue to lack sufficient workers, and that DeSantis should not have shipped these potential workers to Martha’s Vineyard. His emotional and fact-challenged positions and decisions will hand this election to Mr. Crist.

    • David Schwartz

      October 4, 2022 at 2:59 pm

      The poll was not designed to criticize your governor, but to get objective data, not your sense of Floridian opinions. Get over it.

    • Devanand Singh

      October 9, 2022 at 11:37 pm

      There is nothing from without a man, that entering him can defile him: but the things which come out of him, those are they that defile the man. Psalm 41:6

    • Teddy

      October 11, 2022 at 10:11 am

      DeSantis is in trouble. It will most likely end hi political career. The American people in general prefer a leader not another bully like trump. I tried to give DerSantis a chance but he failed across the board. Then his wifes recent coment that they are not here to help solve problems. In my opinion they just publically admitted they are the problem. Vote them out.

  • Tom

    October 3, 2022 at 4:43 pm

    Crock of manure poll.
    Classic partisan hack.

    The previous Siena poll is a classic leaning Dem, Dum polling firm.
    Watch, this Dem firm will release tomorrow Dumings ahead of Rubio.

    Partisan hack polls.

    • Mary

      October 3, 2022 at 8:30 pm

      Been a lifelong resident of Florida, want someone who cares about us and women and OUR rights. Been there done it, and if you haven’t you just don’t get it… 15 weeks isn’t long enough , My Body My Choice, #1 Decision for women. If we can’t work, Economy doesn’t matter. If we happen to get pregnant by accident/can’t work to feed our kids, who helps us??? What happens to the man who got us pregnant? Nothing? Our life gets ruined, who pays? What happens if there are complications or No insurance? This law was passed for Men by Men… WTF

      • Vh

        October 3, 2022 at 9:36 pm

        I totally agree!

      • marylou

        October 6, 2022 at 9:54 pm

        “for Men by Men” Exactly! They want to force women to be breeding stock to combat their Replacement Theory fears. They want us to stop taking “their” places in college and “their” jobs. They are taking away our bodily rights and human rights.

    • David Schwartz

      October 4, 2022 at 3:07 pm

      There are plenty of Republican biased polls, too. Read 538.com for a list of polls and their biases. Ignore polls you don’t like, that’s okay with me. They shouldn’t be used to form your opinion. Facts, truth and other esoteric factors should influence your opinion, but I’m sure with you, they don’t.

      • Tom

        October 6, 2022 at 10:40 pm

        Feel free to share it.
        You idiot Schwartz, it’s a progressive Dem push poll. It’s purpose is to formulate questions to get a favorable idea.

        18 out of 19 polls in the past 18 months have America’s Gov ahead.

        538 is a Dem leaning outline.
        If you want objectivity in polling go to realclearpolitics.com

        I don’t have time for neophytes.
        You dum Dems are politically naive. No wonder you are so easily manipulated.

        • teddy

          October 11, 2022 at 10:15 am

          And those polls have all been pulling from a GOP sampling. Desantis needs to show large numbers in polls to keep the money coming in. So he greased the wheels. The facts are the DEM and NPA are mobilized and if they show up to the polls to vote the GOP will lose by at least 5%. The fact they have mobilized on the ground its women, young, gays, blacks, hispanics, and even some sensible white hetero men, Desantis will be trumps caddy.

        • David Schwartz

          October 11, 2022 at 11:49 pm

          Neophytes? Lol

  • Moe

    October 3, 2022 at 5:07 pm

    The left is trying so hard the media is out here doing hit pieces people see this and will still vote for the two best candidates Desantis and Rubio.

    • Jeffrey J Ward

      October 4, 2022 at 12:40 am

      I am a 40 year registered Republican voter in Florida. Mailed by ballot today. Always voted for Rubio but not today. Trump toady. Voted for DeSantis once. Never voting for him again. Traditional Republicans like me are jumping ship.

      • Daniel Rivera

        October 4, 2022 at 8:56 am

        The question now becomes how many of Republicans like you flip to Charlie Crist? I’d like to see more of that go Charlie’s way.

      • DesertDweller

        October 4, 2022 at 1:03 pm

        Your forthrightness, honesty, and integrity count as heavily as your vote.

      • Ed

        October 9, 2022 at 3:12 pm

        A landslide for Charlie Crist is coming!

  • Impeach Biden

    October 3, 2022 at 5:27 pm

    I had no idea that Jacob Ogles was a writer for Saturday Night Live. Thanks for the political humor Jacob.

  • William Cochran

    October 3, 2022 at 6:01 pm

    As Biden says, “Malarkey!”
    Our Governor WILL be reelected!
    Why do you think the “Progressives” are attacking him so much!!

  • Helen

    October 3, 2022 at 7:16 pm

    This is pure BS! DeSantis has been a fantastic Governor for us! Charlie is a big, fat undecided liar! He would destroy this state. Floridians are too smart not to re-elect DeSantis!!! Polls SUCK anyway!!

  • Mary

    October 3, 2022 at 8:34 pm

    Been a lifelong resident of Florida, want someone who cares about us and women and OUR rights. Been there done it, and if you haven’t you just don’t get it… 15 weeks isn’t long enough , My Body My Choice, #1 Decision for women. If we can’t work, Economy doesn’t matter. If we happen to get pregnant by accident/can’t work to feed our kids, who helps us??? What happens to the man who got us pregnant? Nothing? Our life gets ruined, who pays? What happens if there are complications or No insurance? This law was passed for Men by Men… WTF

    REPLY

    • marylou

      October 6, 2022 at 10:03 pm

      ALL unwanted pregnancies start with a penis. For men who want to stop abortions: Control yourself! Take responsibility! GET A VASECTOMY!!!

      • Tom

        October 12, 2022 at 9:57 am

        No Schumer and all Dems voted down a Rubio amendment for federal funding for women pregnancies only, defined as women. Dems say men can give birth. What a party.

  • Jerry

    October 3, 2022 at 8:56 pm

    Yeah…just like the polls saying how Andrew Gillum was going to win by 5+ points in 2018. Or that Hillary was going to beat Trump in Florida in 2016. Some polls were showing Biden with a 4 point lead over Trump in 2020. Trump won by 3.5.

    Florida polls are ALWAYS favoring Democrats. Always. They haven’t been right in years. These liberal polls are designed to keep the appearance that the race is close so that money keeps coming in to the Democratic party coffers. That’s all it is.

    Florida is not and never will be a blue state. If that’s what you want, move to New York or California. You will be happier in those socialist hellholes with out of control taxes, crime, and homelessness.

    • DesertDweller

      October 4, 2022 at 1:07 pm

      I wonder how many Floridians will now be disabled from voting because of Ian and the tardy and/or nonexistent evacuation orders. It would appear that NY and CA don’t run the board on “homelessness” in light of this tragedy, so if that’s your pivotal criterion for voting for DeSantis, it’s a loser.

  • Vh

    October 3, 2022 at 9:40 pm

    I just read your article from 8 hours ago saying desantis has an 8 point lead which was taken before Ian. Now an article from 5 hours ago saying they’re within one point? So confused and so not trust polls. That said I sure wished this was true. Desantis is too red for me.

    • Ron DeSantis is a LOSER

      October 4, 2022 at 1:33 am

      All I can say is: VOTE. VOTE. VOTE. Get your friends and families to VOTE. VOTE. VOTE. VOTE. Let’s vote this loser out of office.

    • David Schwartz

      October 4, 2022 at 3:09 pm

      As he should be for most…

  • Ron DeSantis is a LOSER

    October 3, 2022 at 10:37 pm

    Now I mostly want Crist to win to watch the comment sections flood with salt. You guys are angry at even the very possibility that the governor might lose. If he does, I’ll be laughing all the way to the bank.

  • Dean D

    October 4, 2022 at 6:49 am

    Your SNL poll is quite humorous ….

  • Andy

    October 4, 2022 at 2:54 pm

    Once you see the word progressive , the poll is bullshit! Just trying to give dems hope , because many dems are not excited about recycled Charlie… so sad the best they could put up is a 2x statewide loser!!

  • Zippe6

    October 4, 2022 at 5:48 pm

    You can’t actually wish this stuff into being. DeSantis will win by 10 points. He got the endorsement of the Democratic head of the council in west palm for crying out loud.

    Charlie Christ is a joke of a candidate at this point and is there only because no one else want’s to be branded a loser

  • c f

    October 5, 2022 at 11:23 pm

    Yeah sure–‘polls’–you know like Hillary over Trump polls in 2016m right? Well let’s see, I heard Florida Conservatives have a poll demonstrating DeSantis has an 80 point lead. Is this news? Come on: polls are as fake as the MSM news.

  • Ed

    October 9, 2022 at 3:05 pm

    Charlie Crist is coming on strong! His bipartisan support is from voters spanning the full political spectrum. DeSantis will be relegated to the garbage bin of history.

  • Concerned American

    October 11, 2022 at 10:18 am

    Jeff, I think you are more the norm. Any sensible person regardles of party, will see how destructive both DeSantis and Rubio are to Florida and America.

    I hand delivered my ballot yesterday to the Voting HQ and Charlie and Val got my vote. Its just the right thing to do

  • Mike

    October 11, 2022 at 10:23 am

    An internal poll by DeSanits has him really worried. It shows he will lose by 4%. Real facts!!! The women, gays, blacks, hispanics, are mobilized on the ground and expected to show up in groves to the polls. They also create a special app to help dems and NPA to get out and vote. Whether you like it or not its the left that is more creative and tech savvy. DeSaniis has more money to send out negative ads, but most common sense people see the lies.

Comments are closed.


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