Last Call for 11.7.22 — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics

Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Voter contractors at Mi Vecino have been analyzing early voting data in Florida, and what they’re finding is good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats.

This year’s electorate is shaping up to be the least diverse in decades. Young voters tend to cast ballots on Election Day, but so far, 80% of ballots cast are from voters 50 and older and 73% have been from White voters.

Republicans are also leading in Miami for the first time in 20 years, with more Latino Republicans having voted than Latino Democrats. Mi Vecino has been projecting a win for Gov. Ron DeSantis in Miami-Dade County since September and expects him to flip other blue counties like Duval, Pinellas and Seminole counties.

Women have cast 60% of Democratic ballots compared to 51% of Republican ballots and 48% of independent ballots. They also find abortion isn’t driving Republican women to cross over, as they value inflation as a higher voting priority.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from Mi Vecino, who has been present in Florida for the last 18 months, is that Democrats’ impending loss is fueled by their lack of ground game. The Florida GOP has considered every voter as “on the table” while Democrats have managed to lose their base.

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Subtropical Storm Nicole might not have too much of an effect on Election Day, but it is forcing Tiger Bay Club of Central Florida to reschedule its sit-down with U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy.

The conversation was slated for Thursday, one day after the storm is expected to make landfall on Florida’s east coast as a hurricane. Instead, the event has been postponed till Friday, Dec. 9 at 11:30 p.m. at the Embassy Suites by Hilton Orlando Downtown.

Tickets already purchased will be honored, and those who cannot attend can seek a refund, according to organizers.

Evening Reads

—“More than $50M spent on Ron DeSantis ads over campaign, with Charlie Crist stepping up spending in final weeks” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—“DeSantis campaign video hints at national aims and draws Donald Trump’s ire” via Reid J. Epstein and Michael C. Bender of The New York Times

—“DeSantis’ voter fraud suspect was issued new voter ID” via Lawrence Mower of the Tampa Bay Times

—“Fix Florida’s broken voter verification system” via the South Florida Sun-Sentinel Editorial Board

—“A budding hurricane, snow and record heat could impact voters on Tuesday” via Jennifer Gray of CNN

—“What Joe Biden has (and hasn’t) accomplished” via Russell Berman of The Atlantic

—“Republicans sue to disqualify thousands of mail ballots in swing states” via Amy Gardner and Emma Brown of The Washington Post

—“Specter of midterm wipeout threatens Dem plans to shake up Presidential Primaries” via Elena Schneider of POLITICO

—“Vladimir Putin-linked businessman admits to U.S. election meddling” via The Associated Press

—“Republicans ahead in early and mail voting as candidates making Election Eve push in South Florida” via Anthony Man and Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel

—“Republicans cast more ballots than Democrats in Miami-Dade County as early voting ends” via Bianca Padró Ocasio of the Miami Herald

—“Florida, you’re no New York” via Brenda Cronin of The Wall Street Journal

—“‘A shitstorm’: Astrologers say Election Day’s Blood Moon eclipse spells chaos” via Tessa Stuart of Rolling Stone

Quote of the Day

“At a time when Marxism, socialism, and communism are actively promoted by prominent politicians and pop-culture figures in our own country, it is more important than ever to teach Florida’s schoolchildren about the horrific history of Communist countries and to provide them with opportunities to hear from individuals who suffered under the rule of Communist dictators.”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis on the first annual Victims of Communism Day.

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