Jacob Ogles
Former President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott appear on their way to winning Florida by double digits.
That’s according to one of the state’s top GOP pollsters. Ryan Tyson’s The Tyson Group found around 46% of likely General Election voters intend to support Trump in November, while just 36% plan to vote for Democratic incumbent Joe Biden. That’s as of June 10. Trump’s lead falls outside the poll’s 3-percentage-point margin of error.
Scott holds a greater lead in the poll. The incumbent Republican Senator boasts 46% support, while Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has just 33%.
Those results, particularly in the presidential race, run counter to Democratic insistence Florida will be in play this cycle, an argument bolstered by a Fox News recently showing Trump with only a 4-point lead. But Tyson has independently measured the Florida electorate for years, and believes suggestions that the state will swing abruptly toward Democrats isn’t consistent with his data or trends.
“Donald Trump has a double-digit lead in Florida. To suggest otherwise ignores the dramatic shift our state has experienced since Trump’s last election,” he said.
“This sample suggests the former President continues to hold together the coalition that has delivered record ballot margins for Republicans in Florida since 2020, as Trump is closing in on 60% of white voters, winning Hispanics by double digits as well as winning Independents and even females.”
His latest survey results also show Gov. Ron DeSantis with 54% job approval compared to 42% disapproval, with his popularity going up with conservatives since he suspended his presidential campaign against Trump.
Meanwhile, Biden’s disapproval sits at 56%, with approval at 38%.
“Biden continues to demonstrate lethargy with key segments of his base in Florida, especially African Americans where it fails to break 60% — a problem Charlie Crist experienced throughout our tracking in Florida in 2022,” Tyson said.
Moreover, the approval numbers on DeSantis and the disapproval numbers on Biden are intense. About 46% of Florida voters “strongly disapprove” of the President’s performance, a plurality of those polled.
For the Republican Governor, the number of those surveyed who “strongly approve” of his performance climbed to 41%, up from just 30% in April.
Regardless, Tyson’s team said they built a polling model predicting Democratic enthusiasm exceeding that for former President Barack Obama, the last Democratic presidential candidate to win Florida, during his 2008 landslide win.
“I’ve read comments suggesting that an unforeseen Democrat turnout wave is headed to the state,” Tyson said. “But it will take an even stronger turnout operation than the Obama machine created 10/14 years ago for Democrats to have a respectable margin of defeat, and Biden ain’t no Obama. Especially when there are nearly half a million fewer Democrats on the voter rolls in the state when Obama was re-elected.
“Even in our most generous turnout projections for the left, and most pessimistic turnout scenarios for the right, the Democrats are staring down the barrel of an R+9 electorate (or more), putting Biden in a 12-point-plus hole.”
Tyson pollsters said the truth is that this just isn’t the purple Florida of legend anymore. Predicting high Democratic turnout and lukewarm Republican turnout doesn’t change that the GOP has a growing edge in registered voters, nearing 1 million.
Democrats still had the advantage in registration four years ago when the last Presidential Election was held. Republicans never held an edge in state history until November of 2021.
18 comments
Jojo
June 11, 2024 at 6:31 am
WHEN did republicans become so deluded that they are willing to put this country’s democracy at risk for one man?
He might be going after your perceived enemies today but do you think he won’t hesitate to go after you if he thinks it will benefits him politically and financially?
If Trump, his acolytes in Congress and the right wing media continue trashing our justice system, someone is going to get hurt or die and it will be at their doorstep.
Impeach Biden
June 11, 2024 at 7:27 am
This is not a dictatorship and you are completely delusional if you think our country would turn into that. Turn off “The View” Jojo it is poison. By the way a majority of media in this country is left, liberal, progressive.
Cosmic Patriot
June 11, 2024 at 3:30 pm
What a dopey question since that’s not actually happening. Meanwhile Democrats are actively doing exactly what you’re clutching pearls about, and you’re rooting for it. What a knob you are.
Impeach Biden
June 11, 2024 at 7:21 am
MHDuuval I guess you were smart not taking me up on that bet that Scott would roll Mucarsel-Powell. He will still roll her but you will keep a few extra bucks in your pocket.
Ron Ogden
June 11, 2024 at 7:22 am
Nonsense. Democracy will survive the present moment, just as it has in the past. And, frankly, it could stand re-examination. In case you haven’t noticed, all of a sudden the American left is being forced to ask itself if the present situation–particularly in Europe, their touchstone–isn’t the result of their own extremism in matters of immigration and its spasmodic and unthinking destruction of moral order. Just watch Morning Joe and see. One of the reasons Republicans are not Democrats is that we can see how the democracy that was America’s foundation has been lost to socialism and globalism. Donald Trump arose is the aftermath of Barack Obama–the one followed the other like spring follows winter. It’s going to happen again–just like the right has leaped to the front across Europe. You lefties did it to yourselves. Admit it.
Tjb
June 11, 2024 at 10:07 am
You mentioned immigration… can you explain why Trump doesn’t support the immigrants bill created by the Republican and Democratic committee?
Elvis Pitts "The Big Voice On The Right" American
June 11, 2024 at 8:42 am
Good Morn ‘Ting Sage Patriots and Dook 4 Brains Leftys,
All polls regardless of wether they are touted to be done by Sage Patriots or Dook 4 Brains Leftys are dramatically scewed to the left.
The reason being that noboby trusts polling request to actually be legitimate and is suspisious it is a Dook 4 Brains Leftist polling orginazation or an evul dark web scammer trying to data mine the receipiant of the polling request.
Therefore the RULE OF ELVIS NEEDS TO BE APPLIED to the above polling results to extrapalate the TRUE AMERICAN SETIMENT.
Its simplely, yet SCIENTIFICALLY, calculated by adding 20% to the conservative side of this or ANY poll.
Lets see now …. this poll showed Trump up by 10 points …. stand by while I calculate the formulas ….. 10 + 20 = 30.
There you have it America
After applying the complex yet Sage upper level Scientific Calculations we come up with an indisputable Lead For Trump by 30 points in The Great Free State of Floride The Land of The Free and Home of The Brave. As Florida goes ….. so goes the rest of The Nation.
So remember This is Science and anyone disputing THE SCIENCE is a Stinky Idiot.
Thank you America,
Elvis Pitts American
Dont Say FLA
June 11, 2024 at 10:02 am
If Floridians want DeSantis or Rubio as VP they better start singing a different tune with pollsters. As long as Trump has Florida in the bag, he has zero reason to pick from either either nostril. No reason to pick either Rubio or DeSantis when you’re up 10 points in their state.
JD
June 11, 2024 at 10:02 am
There’s a fairly old book – How to Lie with Statistics that the GOP is embracing.
You dipshit believe everything you read on the internet?
Elvis Pitts "The Big Voice On The Right" American
June 11, 2024 at 10:57 am
Sorry to have to tell you, JD,
But your nasty mouth is forceing me to place you under another Painfull 3 Day Chastizement.
Also your a “Nattering Nabob Of Negativism”,
Be Ashamed of Yourself JD,
Elvis Pitts American
JD
June 11, 2024 at 12:31 pm
When the you and your GOP cultists display the smallest occum of “Shame”, maybe I will watch my mouth.
I mean, supporting a CONVICTED FELON TRUMP and all of his sycophants tossing “shame” out the window (much like the brownshirts of Hitler), you zero latitude in talking about shame.
Until then this Progressive Christian is telling you to “F@ck off.”
Michael K
June 11, 2024 at 11:39 am
I suppose it makes sense that a thrice-married, convicted felon, rapist, con man, Putin apologist, and serial liar – who lost the popular vote twice — would be the Florida “GOP” favorite for president. The former president has successfully normalized grift and greed and eroded public trust. He’s had total disdain for the rule of law his entire life. What remains of the GOP is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Trump Inc. No platform, no principles, Trumpism is nothing more than a cult with a lust for raw power, grievance, revenge, and carte blanche for billionaires.
We’ve seen this movie before. It does not end well.
My Take
June 13, 2024 at 4:37 pm
We’ve seen this movie before.
===========
The Children’s Crusade?
But later notably including the European ergot epidemics. Mass induced insanity.
Dave Trotter
June 11, 2024 at 2:51 pm
Wow, someone spent money on analyzing something that you could do simply with open sources? That’s a waste of money.
Conni
June 12, 2024 at 9:59 am
Donald should be tried for treason. Everything and everyone he touches burns to the ground or is convicted. Wake up, morons, and use your brains. He’s playing you like a fiddle.
My Take
June 12, 2024 at 5:10 pm
Trumpie
Is he Caligula … or Nero?
JD
June 12, 2024 at 5:28 pm
Nero – he watched TV while DC burned, and is insane.
Snow peas
June 13, 2024 at 7:58 pm
Well,I take it like good old porn industry will have no effect.
One down for that 85,%