Last Call for 7.10.24 — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics

Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

Ed. Note — Sunburn will take tomorrow off and return to email inboxes first thing Friday morning. We invite you to enjoy Diagnosis, checking the pulse of Florida health care news and policy, which will run in its place.

First Shot

The latest Emerson College poll has former President Donald Trump up three points over President Joe Biden.

The poll, which surveyed 1,370 voters July 7-8, showed Trump ahead 46%-43%. Trump also leads Biden by four percentage points when third-party candidates are included, earning 44% to Biden’s 40% with 6% going to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Undecided voters are split evenly, with one half leaning toward Trump and other leaning toward Biden.

These results come after the first presidential debate when Biden’s shaky performance raised alarms among Democrats.

“Since before the first presidential debate, former President Trump’s support remains at 46%, while President Biden’s support has decreased two percentage points,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling. “Notable shifts away from Biden occurred among independent voters, who break for Trump 42% to 38%; last month they broke for Biden 43% to 41%.”

Trump has consistently registered at 46% in Emerson College’s polls since April 4, while Biden’s support has fluctuated between 43% and 45%. However, Biden’s job approval rating has improved from 37% to 39% and his disapproval rating has dropped from 53% to 52% since last month’s poll.

These results come after calls from several elected Democratic and others for Biden to exit the race. Biden has rebuffed the notion. Still, the poll floated head-to-heads between Trump and several other major Democrats, including Vice President Kamala Harris, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Trump outperformed all the candidates, polling between 46% and 48% across the board, while Harris performed the best at 43%.

The poll also tracked voter motivation, finding 78% of Republicans are “extremely motivated” versus 65% of Democrats. By race, White voters are the most motivated at 79%, followed by Black voters at 53% and Hispanic voters at 49%. By age, 18 to 29-year-olds are the least motivated at 39%. By contrast, more than nine out of 10 voters aged 60 to 69 said they are “extremely motivated.”

Trump and Biden will face off again on Sept. 10, the second and final scheduled debate before the Nov. 5 election.

Evening Reads

—“Joe Biden says it’s Dem ‘elites’ who are alarmed about his debate. Voters in Wisconsin beg to differ.” via Gavin Bade of POLITICO Magazine

—“As Biden struggles, the fight for the House takes on new importance” via Jonathan Weisman of The New York Times

—“Nancy Pelosi signals Biden should re-examine decision to stay in race” via Own Tucker-Smith of The Wall Street Journal

—“What the Democrats doubting Biden have in common” via Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

—“The rebellion against Biden is over. For now.” via David A. Graham of The Atlantic

—“GOP jump-starts 2024 Election challenges with Donald Trump-inspired lawsuits” via Amy Gardner and Isaac Arnsdorf of The Washington Post

—“J.D. Vance has a problem on his face” via Marc Caputo and Tim Miller of The Bulwark

—“This is what elite failure looks like” via The New York Times

—“COVID cases are spiking in Florida, but the antiviral Paxlovid is hard to find” via Cindy Krischer Goodman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel

—“‘Free State of Florida’ signs now welcome drivers to the Sunshine State” via Nick Viviani of the Orlando Sentinel

Quote of the Day

“There are other people that don’t have that complication.”

— Former President Donald Trump, on the 12th Amendment hurdle for picking Marco Rubio as his running mate.

Put It on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Serve Gov. Ron DeSantis a Prodigal Son for patching things up with Trump and landing a speaking slot at next week’s Republican National Convention.

Rubio is still in the running for Trump’s Veep pick, but the former President served him a Long Shot on Fox News Radio.

Save the Milly Martinis until after the election, but Smart & Safe Florida received another seven-figure reload from the state’s largest medical marijuana company.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Marlins continue series in Houston

The Marlins try to continue a modest warm streak as they continue a three-game series in Houston against the Astros (8:10 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Florida).

Miami (32-59) snapped a five-game losing streak with consecutive wins over the lowly Chicago White Sox before dropping the series opener to the Astros on Tuesday. Houston (47-44) sits two games behind the Seattle Mariners in the American League West division. Houston also trails by three and a half games in the American League wild-card race.

The Marlins have only once had four consecutive wins this season. Conversely, they lost nine straight to start the season and have four losing streaks of five games or more. Only the Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox have a worse record this season.

Jake Burger enjoyed a big moment in the finale of the White Sox series, slamming a game-winning home run against his former team. Relief pitcher Tanners Scott should also take some good feelings through the series. Scott was named to the National League All-Star team. 

Just days before his 30th birthday, Scott will be the first Marlins’ reliever to represent the team in the All-Star game since A.J. Ramos and Fernando Rodney represented the team in 2016.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.