Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
A new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris closing the gap more with former President Donald Trump.
The latest poll from Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab shows that Harris trails Trump by five points, 44%-49%. That’s an improvement from polling with President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket – he trails Trump 41%-49%, the biggest gap between the two candidates PolCom has recorded this cycle.
These results came before Biden endorsed Harris for President.
PolCom also found that 57% of voters want the Democratic Convention delegates to pick the Democratic nominee, 43% said they support Harris as the pick, and about three in five Democratic voters said they would prefer Harris as the nominee.
While PolCom says Harris has consolidated around 85% of Democratic-leaning voters, it will still take significant effort to catch up to Trump fully. Factoring in third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has very little impact on the spread, shifting the results to 45%-39%, an advantage for Trump.
“On the whole, there does appear to be a solid base of support for Harris in the Democratic Party,” said Kevin Wagner, co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab and professor of political science. “But there is still substantial uncertainty. Some Democratic voters are still looking for another candidate. Harris has time to unify the party before the convention, but she needs to move quickly, or this could potentially spin out of control for the Democrats.”
Regarding favorability, the VP is six points underwater, 44%-50%. Trump, meanwhile, is sitting at plus-one, 49%-48%. Harris’ favorability is stronger among college-educated and minority voters, while Trump’s strength is with White non-college-educated voters.
However, PolCom researchers say that these numbers may not tell the whole story of what will happen later in the election cycle.
“I would be cautious about reading too much into Harris’ early numbers, as many voters have not yet focused on her as a leading candidate,” said Luzmarina Garcia, Assistant Professor of Political Science at FAU and PolCom Lab-affiliated researcher. “The key will be how she is viewed after becoming the nominee and consolidating the party vote.”
The poll was carried out from July 19-21 among 797 registered voters and was halted when Biden announced he would not continue his campaign to avoid post-announcement bias.
The Democratic nominee will be chosen at the Democratic National Convention, which runs Aug. 19-22. The second presidential debate is still scheduled for Sept. 10.
Evening Reads
–“Donald Trump’s new rival may bring out his harshest instincts” via Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan of The New York Times
–“Washington’s most powerful interests don’t know whether to cheer Kamala Harris – or dread her” via Megan Messerly of POLITICO Magazine
–“Harris is preparing to lead Democrats in 2024. There are lessons from her 2020 bid” via Bill Barrow of The Associated Press
–“With Harris running, Democrats open new line of attack on Trump: his age” via Vivian Salama and John McCormick of The Wall Street Journal
–“What key-state voters think about Harris replacing Joe Biden” via Dan Balz, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin of The Washington Post
–“What we heard about the economy, immigration and foreign policy at the RNC” via Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
–“Florida moves ahead with law meant to keep kids off social media and away from pornography” via Jim Saunders of News Service of Florida
–“Presidential searches taking off at three Florida universities” via Jay Waagmeester of the Florida Phoenix
–“Florida’s population passes 23 million for the first time due to residents moving from other states” via Mike Schneider of The Associated Press
–“NASA’s massive moon booster arrives at Kennedy Space Center” via Richard Tribou of the Orlando Sentinel
Quote of the Day
“The situation we find ourselves in today is totally uncharted territory and has no modern historical parallel.”
– Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, on Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Put It on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Reps. Tom Leek, Fabián Basabe, James Buchanan, Dana Trabulsy, and Brad Yeager were included in the barrage of endorsements announced by the NRA’s political arm – they gave the nod to enough candidates to exhaust this list of Shots & Shooters to Liven Up Your Night.
Mix up and El Presidente for Timothy Beard, who assumed the top job at Florida A&M University, at least temporarily.
Calling all bartenders: We’re going to need one million 23s to celebrate the Sunshine State’s latest population milestone.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
USA in action before Olympic opening ceremony
Typically, in this space, we look ahead to a game or event that begins in the evening. However, with the Summer Olympics in Paris six hours ahead, we’ll stretch our timing here to look to tomorrow’s action. Specifically, two matchups between the United States and the host country precede Friday’s highly anticipated opening ceremonies.
Tomorrow, at 10:30 a.m. ET, the U.S. faces France in Rugby sevens (Peacock), followed by the USA vs. France in men’s soccer at 3 p.m. ET (USA network).
France’s rugby side is led by star Antoine Dupont, who led his country to a championship at the 2024 World Rugby Sevens Series Grand Final. They are one of the favorites to knock off the two-time reigning Olympic champions, Fiji.
The U.S. is captained by Kevon Williams and coached by Englishman Mike Friday, who has managed the U.S. national team since 2014. The best result the U.S. has enjoyed under Friday was a runner-up finish in the 2019 World Rugby Sevens Series.
Unlike the women’s soccer competition, where senior national teams represent their countries, the men’s competition features U-23 teams with three additional senior players. Jacksonville native Djordje Mihailovic is among the senior players.
Francis is coached by Thierry Henry, the former Arsenal and New York Red Bulls star who has been mentioned as a potential candidate to take over as the head coach of the USMNT.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
