Peter Schorsch
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
A new poll shows that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a significant lead against former President Donald Trump in Miami-Dade.
The MDW Communications poll, commissioned by EDGE Communications, surveyed 1,071 voters in the county from Aug. 1-5, finding Harris with a commanding 15-point lead over Trump.
The polling sample was 38% Democrats and 33% Republicans and 29% third- and no-party voters. Among no-party voters, Harris holds a 55.3%-31.7% advantage — a 23-point lead.
“In what can only be described as one of the most consequential months in American politics, July 2024 not only was historic, but it also saw the ground shift for Democrats with electrifying energy, unified momentum and enthusiasm levels that have propelled Vice President Harris to strong leads across the country,” EDGE Communications President Christian Ulvert said in a statement accompanying the poll.
The poll indicates a strong showing and enthusiasm for Harris after President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race. This reflects growing momentum in other polls, with her holding small leads against Trump in polls from CBS News, NPR/PBS/Marist and Economist/YouGov. She has also overtaken the former President in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
The new polling also comes after Harris’ selection of Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. According to a poll from ABC News/Ipsos, Walz was not as popular as finalists for Harris’ No. 2, but he still has a substantial favorability advantage over Trump’s running mate, Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance, who had a minus-15 approval rating.
While it is not clear if these trends will hold steady, Harris has shown continuous momentum since taking on the Democratic mantle and has thus far avoided any major stumbles in her hastily assembled campaign.
Evening Reads
—”Kamala Harris’ rise has unsettled Donald Trump, who is struggling to focus, supporters say” via Shawn McCreesh of The New York Times
—“With Harris and Tim Walz in, some Democrats still weigh skipping the polls” via Danielle Paquette of The Washington Post
—“Are Democrats becoming the ‘Culver’s Party?’” via Dave Trotter of Voting Trend
—“Poll: Majority of U.S. adults say democracy is on the ballot but they differ on the threat” via The Associated Press
—”Walz’s ‘couch’ quip, and Democrats’ growing comfort in going low” via Aaron Blake of The Washington Post
—”Do celebrity endorsements matter?” via Li Zhou of Vox
—”The GOP is a messy soap opera right now” via Tom Nichols of The Atlantic
—”Parents of 3 students who died in Parkland massacre, survivor reach large settlement with shooter” via Terry Spencer of The Associated Press
—”Delta — yes, Delta — is haggling with fliers, and nicking its gold-plated reputation” via Dawn Gilbertson of The Wall Street Journal
—”How Tampa Bay is fighting the opioid crisis with free Narcan” via Brandon Kingdollar of the Tampa Bay Times
Quote of the Day
“Florida has something coming up. I’ll be making a statement about that fairly soon … ”
— Former President Donald Trump, on Amendment 3.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Former President Donald Trump may not drink, but he gets a half measure of Scotch for supporting one of the big amendments on the Florida ballot but maybe not the other.
Sam Greco gest a Jag and Red after his fellow GOP judge advocate general endorsed him in the race for House District 19.
August means football is almost here — enjoy one of these pregame drinks while the Dolphins, Jaguars and Bucs start prepping for preseason games.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
U.S. goes for gold in women’s soccer Saturday
In the first tournament under new head coach Emma Hayes, the United States faces Brazil in the gold medal game of the Olympic women’s soccer tournament on Saturday (11 a.m. ET, NBC).
After a disappointing World Cup performance when the USWNT failed to advance past the group stage, Hayes was brought in from England where she led Chelsea to seven Women’s Super League championships. Her impact has been substantial and immediate.
The U.S. has not been without some challenges. Opposing teams have tended to sit in deep, making it difficult for the Americans to score. In the semifinal match against Germany, the USWNT needed extra time to find the net. Sophia Smith’s 95th-minute score proved the difference.
Saturday’s match marks the sixth time the U.S. has advanced to the gold medal game since women’s soccer was introduced to the Olympics in 1996. The U.S. has won four gold medals in the previous seven Olympics.
The gold medal game will be the final match in Brazilian star Marta’s illustrious career. The 38-year-old announced she would retire from international soccer after the match. The Paris Games mark Marta’s fifth Olympics.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
