Will Mark Robinson’s fall shake up Florida? Democrats think so

Image via AP.

CNN dropped a bombshell report Thursday detailing how Mark Robinson, the controversial GOP nominee for North Carolina Governor, had written a series of inflammatory comments on a pornography website some time ago.

In the posts, Robinson, North Carolina’s current Lieutenant Governor, expressed support for reinstating slavery, declared himself a “black NAZI!” and praised transgender porn.

It was a far cry from Robinson’s public persona as a staunchly conservative figure who echoed anti-LGBTQ rhetoric, including calls for trans women to be arrested for using women’s bathrooms.

He’s also voiced support for a total abortion ban without exceptions, despite availing himself of one in the 1980s and writing on the porn site about celebrity abortions, “I don’t care. I just wanna see the sex tape!”

Robinson denied writing the posts, blamed his Democratic opponent, Josh Stein, for manufacturing a smear campaign against him, and vowed to stay in the race.

But Larry Sabato, Director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, thinks the damage to Robinson’s candidacy is irrevocable. He announced Thursday on X that he and the team that puts together his Sabato’s Crystal Ball — known for accurately predicting the outcomes of U.S. elections, with some notable outliers — had changed the rating for the North Carolina Governor’s race from “Lean Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”

“The question is whether Robinson brings down the top of the ticket (Donald Trump) with him,” Sabato wrote. “Those 16 electoral votes could be the whole election.”

With North Carolina now a potentially less demanding battleground for Democrats, resource-wise, some in the party are setting their sights on Florida.

The Sunshine State is still ranked a “tossup” by 270toWin, even though the GOP holds a more than 1 million-voter advantage statewide. For William “Fergie” Reid Jr., a physician and political activist whose 90 for 90 group is backing voter registration efforts and Democratic candidates across the country, Robinson’s loss and other hot-button issues like Gov. Ron DeSantis’ state parks SNAFU could presage previously less likely victories for the blue team across the map — if Democrats capitalize on the opening.

“Opportunities abound for Democrats,” he said, “and nervous times for Republicans in Florida.”

Christian Ulvert, a Democratic consultant with a voluminous list of South Florida clients, agrees.

“What’s happening in North Carolina is going to have an impact across battleground states and down-ballot races because it’s troubling, and it allows Democrats to go on the offense on key issues,” he said. “It sends a message to Florida Democrats that the fight to win here is very much real and at play because you never know what dynamics can shift, and we’re seeing the very first major one play out in North Carolina.”

The tide at the top of the ticket was turning in Florida before the Robinson fiasco. A new Morning Consult poll that ran through Wednesday shows Kamala Harris within striking distance of Trump in his home state. The same survey found freshman Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott is more vulnerable than some had thought and that Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former Congresswoman, has been effective in blasting him on his IVF voting record and reluctance to debate her.

There are opportunities up and down the ballot, particularly in flippable House Districts with well-funded Democratic candidates like Nate Douglas in HD 37, Derek Reich in HD 73, Jay Shooster in HD 91 and Joe Saunders in HD 106.

There’s another pickup opportunity in HD 113, where Reid-backed Democrat Jackie Gross-Kellogg aims to unseat freshman Rep. Vicki Lopez, a moderate Republican with bipartisan support who has been catching heat lately due to costs associated with condo legislation she helped to hone.

“There are a lot of down-ballot races here and if they start to play, it will force the Trump campaign, which has less money, to fight and defend something that is an absolute must-win,” said Mercury Managing Director Eric Johnson, who is working on Shooster’s campaign. “Donald Trump needs Florida to win. Kamala Harris does not, and if (her campaign has) the funds to expand the map, the only places to do so are in North Carolina and Florida, the two closest states that Joe Biden did not win in 2020.

“And the Harris campaign has a good operation here already. It’s set up in Florida. But we’re talking about tens of millions of dollars of media, and I’m sure a decision hasn’t been made on that.”

But there could be talk of it Saturday, when the national party’s Chair, Jaime Harrison, is to deliver the keynote address at the Miami-Dade Democratic Party’s Blue Gala in Miami Beach.

At least four Democrats rumored to be mulling 2026 gubernatorial bids will be there: Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, who ran for the job in 2022 and may do so again; House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell; Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava; and Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chair Shevrin Jones, a state Senator.

Jones said Florida Democrats know there’s an opportunity to flip the script in November.

“We won’t play games with this election, and the Miami-Dade Democratic Party is determined to show America that the path to the White House runs through the 305,” Jones said. “The national party is pouring resources into Florida, finally recognizing what Chair Fried has been stating all along: Florida is very much in play.”